It’s time for the UFC’s November pay-per-view offering, which means it’s time for the promotion’s yearly pilgrimage to the World’s Most Famous Arena, Madison Square Garden, in New York City. And for old fans of the sport, there are plenty of familiar names on the fight card. Here are your UFC 309 predictions & best bets to make Saturday night profitable.
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UFC 309 Predictions & Best Bets
Jon Jones (-549) vs Stipe Miocic
The two most familiar names would be in the main event – current UFC Heavyweight Champion (and former long-time light heavyweight champion) Jon Jones against former champ and the greatest MMA heavyweight of all time (most say), Stipe Miocic. Too bad this fight is five years too late.
Jones may not still be in the peak portion of his storied career, but he’s still going to dominate Miocic. Miocic has been out of the cage since March 2021 (when he was brutally knocked out) and is 42 years old. Jones is going to finish him – probably via strikes – and make an example of him.
Charles Oliveira (-250) vs Michael Chandler
After wasting years of his career chasing after a fight with Conor McGregor, Michael Chandler finally got the hint that it’s never going to happen and instead is taking a rematch with a fighter who already knocked him out three years ago. Interesting career choices.
Charles Oliveira already has proven he knows how to beat Chandler, and hasn’t deteriorated as much as Chandler has since that fight (plus Chandler hasn’t even been in the cage since 2022). Chandler just wants to get in wars at this point, and his chin is not going to cooperate with that plan for much longer.
Eryk Anders (-115) vs Chris Weidman
Despite winning his last fight (after basically sticking his finger completely through his opponent’s eyeball), I’m never again picking Chris Weidman to win a fight in the UFC. He’s shot, and his chin is beyond questionable at this point.
So I’ll gladly take Eryk Anders at almost pick ’em prices. Apparently, he used to party instead of properly training for his fights, but that’s over with, so maybe he’ll look better in the cage. He’s also a strong wrestler and hopefully hits hard enough to finish Weidman.
Jim Miller (+150) vs Damon Jackson
Even better than pick ’em money is dog money, and I’ll grab 1.5x my money for a Jim Miller win over Damon Jackson. This is a favorable matchup for the winningest fight in UFC history.
Jackson is moving up from featherweight for this bout, so that’s one positive for Miller. Plus, Jackson needs to outgrapple his opponents to win fights, which is a very tough ask against a strong wrestler like Miller.
Marcin Tybura (-140) vs Jhonata Diniz
I picked Derrick Lewis to beat Jhonata Diniz when they were scheduled to fight a few weeks ago (Lewis pulled out of the fight last minute), so I’m definitely going to pick Marcin Tybura over Diniz in this hastily arranged heavyweight bout.
Diniz is strictly a kickboxer – weak wrestlers and grapplers have had their way with him in the UFC. Tybura is a very strong grappler but also has skills on the feet. This is a big step up for Diniz and a bad matchup.
Check out the MMA Gambling Podcast if you’d like even more UFC 309 picks. The guys are dropping five episodes a week to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
