It’s time to crown the 2024 NASCAR Xfinity Series Champion! The playoff field that started with 12 drivers, now just has four remaining. They’ll settle it all at the 1-mile low-banked oval in Avondale, Arizona on Saturday. The green flag is set for 7:47 p.m. ET on The CW. Let’s take a look at the NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for the NASCAR Xfinity Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway.
Much like the Cup Series race, the Xfinity Series race at Martinsville was full of drama, and even some controversy. It ended with Aric Almirola in victory lane and Chandler Smith slapping Cole Custer on pit road. Ultimately Custer and Justin Allgaier pointed their way in to join AJ Allmendinger and Austin Hill in the championship four.
The rules are simple. No playoff points, no stage points. Nothing matters but beat the other three drivers, and you are the 2024 Xfinity Series champion.
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Phoenix Raceway
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Championship Race Phoenix Raceway
Cole Custer +320
Justin Allgaier +350
Chandler Smith +400
Aric Almirola +400
Sheldon Creed +900
Sammy Smith +1000
Austin Hill +1500
Sam Mayer +1500
AJ Allmendinger +2000
Riley Herbst +2800
Jesse Love +3000
Connor Zilisch +3000
Brandon Jones +4000
William Sawalich +4500
Ryan Sieg +7000
Parker Kligerman +7000
Shane Van Gisbergen +20000
Anthony Alfredo +25000
Parker Retzlaff +25000
Jefferey Earnhardt +30000
Jeb Burton +30000
Josh Williams +50000
Daniel Dye +50000
Matt DiBenidetto +50000
Jeremy Clements +70000
Josh Bilicki +100000
Joey Gase +100000
Greg Van Alst +100000
Dylan Lupton +100000
Dawson Cram +100000
Brennan Poole +10000
Blaine Perkins +100000
Stefan Parsons +100000
Ryan Ellis +100000
Patrick Emerling +100000
Leland Honeyman Jr +100000
Kyle Sieg +100000
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Championship Race Phoenix Raceway
Austin Hill Over Sam Mayer (-115)
I’m very shocked this matchup is even offered this weekend. Sure, you could say JR Motorsports car vs Richard Childress Racing car in a general sense should be a fair matchup, maybe even lean to the JRM side. However, one of these drivers in Austin Hill is in the championship four, with a shot at the title, and has been one of the most consistent drivers on the season. The other, Sam Mayer, has had a tough season, is eliminated from the playoffs, and switching teams and manufacturers for next season.
These two drivers have gone head to head in the Xfinity Series in five races at Phoenix. Austin Hill has four straight top-10 finishes, while Mayer has one in the same time frame. Head to head against each other, Hill holds a 4-1 lead at the track. In addition to that, over the last 16 races in the Xfinity Series schedule, Hill has won the head-to-head matchup in 13 of those 16 races. Mayer is a talented driver and can pop up and have good days as we’ve seen, but he’s inconsistent and in a bad spot this weekend, the exact opposite of Hill. I also like a bet on Hill to win the race at 14/1.
Aric Almirola Top 3 Finish (+110)
Aric Almirola is not a part of the championship four due to not running the full season. However, this #20 Joe Gibbs Racing car is in the final four for the Owners Championship title. That’s how the teams get paid out at the end of the season, it’s not the Driver Championship. Gibbs put Almirola in this car for the entirety of the playoffs with one main goal. Go win the championship for the team. Almirola has done his job so far getting the car all the way to Phoenix.
Now he’ll be racing hard to close out the Owners title for the team. I do think Almirola could be alive to win this race, whether he does or doesn’t, he’ll likely be in the mix at the end of the day and I expect him to score a top-three finish, and we’re getting a great number for it. Almirola is known as a short-flat track driver from his long Cup Series career. In his last 13 Cup races here, he had 10 finishes inside of the top 13. That’s well above his average for the cars he was in and shows he could hang with “the big boys” here. New Hampshire was arguably his best track in the latter years of career and translates well to Phoenix. Look for Aric to be in the mix at the end of the day.
Cole Custer to Win (+320)
Spoiler alert, this is also my championship pick for obvious reasons. If Custer wins the race, he’ll also win the title. Custer has been another driver that’s just consistent and in the mix all season. He had a similar year last year, and then the team showed up and executed flawlessly at Phoenix giving him the 2023 Xfinity title. In that race he led 96 laps on his way to the win. In the spring race here he finished fifth after leading 61 laps.
At the short track of Bristol, he led 104 laps en route to the victory, and at the ever-important comparison track of New Hampshire, he led 114 laps and scored a third-place finish. On top of all that, this is probably the “weakest” of the three series final four. I say that lightly because I believe all four are capable of winning. But Custer stands out above the rest and becomes a two-time Xfinity Series champion on Saturday.
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