It’s time to crown the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion! 34 drivers ran full-time for points, 16 drivers made the playoffs and now they’ve whittled it down to just four drivers. Let’s jump in and take a look at this week’s NASCAR picks, odds, and best bets for NASCAR’s Cup Series Championship Race at Phoenix Raceway.
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Last week was a thriller at Martinsville, filled with storylines and controversy. In the end, Ryan Blaney repeated his performance from last year and won the race, giving him a chance to defend his title this week. The crew chiefs and spotters for the 1,3 and 23 cars have all been suspended for the Phoenix race, pending the results of an expedited appeal.
Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron are the four who will settle it this week! The rules are simple, no playoff points, no stage racing, just beat your three opponents. The best finisher of the four, whether that’s by winning the race, or finishing 36th is your 2024 NASCAR Cup Series Champion. A quick note: odds to win the championship do not require you to win the race. The odds to win the race are just that.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: Championship Race Phoenix Raceway
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Phoenix Raceway
Odds to Win the Championship
Ryan Blaney +250
William Byron +250
Joey Logano +285
Tyler Reddick +330
Odds to Win NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race
Ryan Blaney +400
Christopher Bell +550
William Byron +600
Joey Logano +650
Tyler Reddick +800
Kyle Larson +800
Denny Hamlin +1200
Chase Elliott +1400
Ross Chastain +1600
Martin Truex Jr +2200
Ty Gibbs +3000
Chase Briscoe +3500
Kyle Busch +3500
Chris Buescher +4000
Brad Keselowski +4000
Bubba Wallace +5000
Alex Bowman +5500
Austin Cindric +6500
Josh Berry +6500
Austin Dillion +10000
Daniel Suarez +10000
Carson Hocevar +13000
Ryan Preece +13000
Michael McDowell +13000
Noah Gragson +17000
Ricky Stenhouse +25000
John Hunter Nemechek +25000
Todd Gilliland +30000
Erik Jones +30000
Corey Lajoie +30000
Zane Smith +35000
Justin Haley +50000
Jimmie Johnson +50000
Harrison Burton +50000
Chad Finchum +100000
Kaz Grala +100000
JJ Yeley +100000
Derek Kraus +100000
Daniel Hemric +100000
NASCAR Picks, Odds, and Best Bets: NASCAR Cup Series Championship Race Phoenix Raceway
Chase Briscoe Top 10 Finish (+220)
With all of the attention on the championship four, sometimes other drivers slip through the cracks on the odds board and Chase Briscoe is that driver this week. It’s the final race for the Stewart-Haas organization and Tony Stewart’s famed #14 ride. The Indiana driver who idolized Stewart growing up wants to send him out on a positive note.
In four of the last five races at Phoenix Raceway Chase Briscoe has scored that top 10 finish including his win in March of 2022, the first race in this generation 7 race car at the track. Briscoe has finished 15th and 12th over the last two weeks which shows us this team is still all in and not checked out for the off-season. The most comparable track to Phoenix Raceway is New Hampshire, where Briscoe finished second earlier this season. Look for the Indiana kid to show up one more time for Tony Stewart before he takes his talents to Joe Gibbs Racing,
Martin Truex Jr Top 10 Finish (+120)
It’s Truex’s final race as a full-time NASCAR Cup Series driver. Luckily for us, it sounds like Truex will run the Daytona 500 in 23XI and potentially a part-time schedule in the Xfinity Series with Joe Gibbs Racing. However, this is it for the full-time career of the 2017 Cup Series champion. We’ve joked most of the season on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast about Truex already being retired and not showing up for races. This is a spot where I think we get Truex’s full effort.
Truex should slow down before this race, smell the roses, and enjoy one final ride in his Dale Earnhardt Incorporated throwback paint scheme. I’m all about Toyota this weekend at Phoenix where I believe Christopher Bell will win the race, and Reddick will win the championship. Truex should run well also, and short-flat tracks are his specialty. He’s finished top 10 in the last two races here scoring finishes of seventh and sixth respectively. While top 10’s have been few and far between, Truex has found them at New Hampshire, Richmond and here in the spring. Let’s send the future Hall of Famer out with a top 10.
Christopher Bell to Win the Race (+550)
Have you ever heard of the pissed-off narrative? I’m not sure it’s more applicable than it will be this week. Bell appeared to have raced his way into the championship four before NASCAR penalized him for a safety violation, which led to his elimination. He will come into this race with a huge ax to grind, and I expect him to show NASCAR, and everyone else that he should be the champion.
Christopher Bell at shorter-flat tracks this year …
– Best Total Speed Ranking
– Best average finish (4.2)
– Best average running position
– Best driver rating by a wide margin*** Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire, Iowa and Gateway
— Ryan (@ifantasyrace) October 31, 2024
On top of that, nobody in the series is better at short-flat tracks than Christopher Bell. According to IFantasyrace.com, Bell leads the series in best track type total speed ranking, best average running position, best driver rating, and best average finish (4.2). He was the best car in the spring race here cruising to victory,
Championship Pick: Tyler Reddick
November 16th, 2023 on the NASCAR Gambling Podcast we got our first look at the 2024 championship odds. I declared Tyler Reddick would be the champion and bet him at 14/1 odds. I’m sticking with my prediction from a year ago and think Reddick gets it done! I think he’s still a good bet at +330 to win it at this point, but I do like him to win the race at +800 more. I also like parlaying Bell to win the race + Reddick to win the championship at +2480 in a Toyota-dominated weekend.
More Racing Content
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