Have you ever tried to build an NFL betting model? Are you wondering what an NFL betting model even is? Don’t worry, we’re going to cover some of the basics of an NFL betting model, and then show you how you don’t need to do the nitty-gritty work anymore. You don’t have to, because Rithmm has you covered. Let’s look at how to build an NFL betting model on your own, and then just how much easier it is with Rithmm.
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How To Build An NFL Betting Model With Rithmm
What Is an NFL Betting Model?
Right now you may be asking yourself, what is an NFL betting model? In simple terms, a betting model takes historical data, focusing on a specific set of data points, and gives its best-predicted outcome. For example, you may want your betting model to focus heavily on passing and a team’s rank. Usually, you want this data to be pushed through at least a couple of years of historical statistics for the best prediction.
So if you chose “passing” and “ranks” as your main focus points, your model would go through every game in your historical set, focusing mainly on the matchups passing and team ranks. It would then tell you the outcome for the specific game you’re looking at. Does it sound like a lot of work? It certainly is. Let’s break it down a little bit further.
Building models is easier if you have a specific focus. NFL season is right around the corner, so we’re going to focus on the NFL. You then want to have some data points to focus on, such as history against the spread, Monelyine, and totals. Now is the part where you collect data. This can be as simple as finding the result of the last three years of football and typing in the stats from the games.
Choosing the type of model you use can be the hardest part. There are regression models, models that focus on key statistics, Paroli models, and many, many more. We’re going to focus on the statistical models. They’re the hardest ones to build out and test on your own, but the easiest with Rithmm.
At this point, you would normally build your model out in a program such as Excel, and run several macros and if/when result type formulas to test your results. Do you want to know the result when a team is better at passing and defense statistics? Your test would run through every result looking at those specific factors and what the outcomes of the game were.
However, like I said at the beginning, the good news is, that Rithmm will do all of this for you!
Using Rithmm
The first step on how to build an NFL betting model on Rithmm is go sign up. You can currently get a free seven-day trial to test it out. What time to do that than the start of football season! If you’re really unsure what you’re doing, you can have Rithmm build a model for you. Otherwise, you can customize, using which statistical data points you want the model to focus on.
While Rithmm doesn’t spill all their secrets, you can get an insight on some of the data points and what they track. For example, Running looks at stats related to a team’s ability to gain yards on the ground such as yards per carry, rush yards, etc.). Passing does the same, except it looks into passing statistics.
Offense is where the model and historical data get even deeper. The offense selection looks at offense statistics such as first downs and drive efficiency. Data sets that would take us a very long time to pour over and create in Excel. The defense selection looks at interceptions, tackles, and defenses stopping the offense.
The “ranks” option is even deeper. It uses Rithmm’s own Baysian and Elo ranking systems that use a team’s rank to best explain their wins and losses.
Building Your Model
You can experiment on Rithmm and build several different models to see what the results are. For this one, I’m going to weigh the passing statistics as my top focus point. While I love a good run game, we all know the NFL has had a major focus on passing recently. Adopting spread offenses from college, there may not be a time when the pass has been such a focus.
I also increased the defensive statistics. I am a Bears’ fan after all. While their defense may not be what it used to be, I am a sucker for a good defense. I locked those two statistics in first. When you lock them while building your betting model, they won’t move based on other changes you are making. You can lock up to three of the five options. The other lock I used was the offense. I put it just under half-way.
Finally, I toned the rank down a little. I did mention I was a Bears’ fan, and while their rank hasn’t been good, I am hoping brighter days are ahead. Therefore, if I want this model to speak to me, I turned it down a little. Once you get your metrics set in Rithmm and hit the “next” button, the model starts running testing. This is going through years of historical data and results so that it can measure your model against upcoming games.
Putting your model into action
First, when Rithmm will test your model and tell you how it would have done historically. Based on the factors we chose above, in the last three years we would have a 6.87% return on investment on the Moneyline, a -7.10% on total points, and a 10% return on the spread.
However, that’s not the only testing you can do. You can look at all the games and see what your NFL betting model predicts the outcome will be. There are two different ways you can do this. You can look at all games, or you can look at the best predictions based on your model.
One of the best predictions based on the model we created happens in Week 2 when the Jets hit the road to take on the Titans. The Titans are currently +162 on the Moneyline and are betting model says to take them with a projected scoring of 23.3 to 20.8. If we believe in our model, we are going to smash the Titans Moneyline now.
However, maybe you don’t want to wait until Week 2. You can go to “all games” and begin browsing which games your model likes. You can also create several different models and it will show you which model’s like which games. A green star on this screen means your model likes the outcome. A yellow triangle means it does not believe this is a good bet.
I’ve built three NFL betting models in Rithmm. Only one of the models likes the Ravens and Chiefs game based on the data. However, in Friday’s game between the Packers and the Eagles, all three models like one outcome. That is the Packers +2.5. While the outcome of the game is predicted differently on each model based on the factors, they all fall within Packers +2.5.
Place Your Bets
While creating an NFL betting model and running all the data outcomes would normally be difficult, Rithmm has done all the hard work for you. Maybe you don’t know if you can trust the data scientists and AI outcomes. We’re all leery of AI, I get it. However, you can track your picks and start seeing if they end up correct or not.
Personally, I’m going to go ahead and do a little parlay round-robin in Week 1 based on what all three models like. That means we’re taking:
Packers (+2.5)
Vikings (-2)
Broncos (+6)
Cowboys (+2.5)
Don’t forget, you can try Rithmm out for seven days, completely free! Just click this link and sign up! It’s as easy as that. Good luck, enjoy Rithmm doing all the hard work, have fun creating your models, and even more fun winning money.
