Everybody loves an underdog story. There’s nothing better than bragging to the entire bar about the plus-money bet that you just cashed. You can bet these Week 1 College Football picks against the spread, as single moneyline plays, or as a parlay, and you’ll be the Tailgate Hero. Welcome to the Sports Gambling Podcast Network Animal Shelter. Let’s find you a dog.
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Week 1 College Football Moneyline Parlay
+5046 The College Football Experience Parlay
We here at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network love large odds. Some people say parlay betting is dumb, but when you treat a moneyline parlay like a lottery ticket, it’s not. Let me explain.
Many folks are avid lotto players, such as Mega Millions and Powerball. The odds of winning the Powerball jackpot are 1 in 292.2 million, and even lower for Mega Millions, at 1 in 302.6 million.
The notorious slogan is, “risk a little to win a lot.” What if I told you that you could place your $2 lotto entry fee on a measured college football moneyline underdog parlay where you can select your winning numbers based on analysis instead of a machine randomly doing it for you? This week’s college football upset picks would pay out $100.92 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
There are 15 slates of college football. If you were to place just one $2 college football parlay each week, that’s a $30 bet total. With just one correct +5046 The College Football Experience Parlay, that’s $70.92 of profit, $171.84 if two hit, $272.76 for three, etc.
Are you feeling more frisky? Those profit amounts increase incrementally with just a few extra dollars on each moneyline underdog parlay. Lastly, in case you weren’t already sold, I can promise you that watching West Virginia, Florida, and Boston College play college football is more entertaining than 40 seconds of ping-pong balls.
College Football Picks Record (All 1 Unit Bets)
Every ML Dog Pick: 1-2 (+1.1 units)
Noah’s Dogs: 1-2 (+1.1 units)
Dundee’s Dogs: 0-0
Dundee’s Dog: West Virginia Moneyline +230
(-8.5) Penn State at West Virginia (O/U 51.5)
Each week, I write up Pick Dundee, aka Colby Dant’s favorite college football upset prediction. Dant is the host of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network’s CFB podcast, “The College Football Experience.” Dundee also loves a good college football parlay and is well known for his success betting moneyline dogs. His favorite Week 1 plus-money-play is West Virginia to knock off Penn State.
Both teams return a ton of production from 2023. However WVU has a leg up when it comes to the QB play, especially since this game will be played in Morgantown. PSU QB Drew Allar started in 5 road games during 2023. Allar completed just 56% of his passes with only 8 touchdowns.
West Virginia’s ground attack will be very fun to watch. The Mountaineers return four on the offensive line led by Wyatt Milum. QB Garrett Greene is a mobile threat that tallied over 3,100 all purpose yards last year and 28 total TDs. WVU also returns both HBs, Jaheim White ran for almost 800 yards and averaged almost 8 yards per carry in 2023. CJ Donaldson is a big bodied Tight End/RB who works as the goal line back. He punched in 11 tuds and rumbled for 798 yards.
Mountaineer faithful will remember what Penn State Head Coach James Franklin did in 2023. In a game that was already out of reach, the Nittany Lions worked the ball all the way down the field and scored an extra touchdown to cover the spread. Being able to think about that all offseason could feed into added motivation for the season opener.
It’s August. pic.twitter.com/00LjZyjpc0
— West Virginia Football (@WVUfootball) August 1, 2024
Dog #2: Florida Moneyline +126
(-2.5) Miami FL at Florida (O/U 54.5)
This is the first time Miami will travel to the Swamp since 2008. Billy Napier’s Gators are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games as underdogs at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. On the surface it seems like a make or break year for Napier. You can sense the desperation to start the year off with a win over a rival before a very tough regular season schedule.
Miami has a very good O-Line and made some flashy offensive additions through the transfer portal. Will they all be able to click in their first game together in a hostile road environment? I’m not sure.
The Hurricanes lost some production in the secondary and I question their replacements against an underrated 2023 Florida passing offense. Gators’ QB Graham Mertz completed 72.9% of his passes last season (3rd in FBS) and averaged 263.9 YPG (26th).
UF’s offensive line will be the X-Factor in this game. The ‘Canes have a stellar pass rush. If Mertz can consistently get enough time in the pocket, the Gators have a good chance to win the game.
Removing passes behind the line of scrimmage
Graham Mertz adj. completion %: 73.9%
Mertz ADOT: 11.4
Mertz adj. passer rating: 120.98
Mertz adj. completion % under pressure: 64.3%Cam Ward adj. completion %: 73.9%
Ward ADOT: 10.9
Ward adj. passer rating: 110.75
Ward adj.…— Brandon Olsen (@WNS_Brandon) August 23, 2024
Dog #3: Boston College Moneyline +590
(O/U 50.5) Boston College at Florida State (-16.5)
Fading Florida State gave us our big win last week, I’m sticking my hand back into the cookie jar. The air in the Tallahassee Hype Balloon has already been deflated. Brent Key’s Yellow Jackets trampled the “Best Defensive Line in the Country” as coined by Pete Thamel. Yellow Jackets ball carriers weren’t getting touched until, on average, 4 yards down field.
18 of Georgia Tech’s 25 first-down plays were designed runs against FSU. They averaged 3.2 yards before contact.
GT had 20 total designed runs outside the tackles… that averaged 6.9 per carry. FSU had eight missed tackles on those runs.
— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) August 26, 2024
Key played Right Guard under Head Coach George O’Leary at Georgia Tech back in the early 2000s. During the early 2000s Boston College Head Coach Bill O’Brien was on the offensive coaching staff for the Yellow Jackets. O’Brien and Key’s offenses will be similar, both have elite rushing attacks.
Currently Boston College has a very good running back committee. Most notably Treshaun Ward is a Florida State castaway via transfer portal! In the last three seasons Ward has tallied over 1,800 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns with the Seminoles and Kansas State. Also in 2023, QB Thomas Castellanos dashed for 1,113 yards, threw for 2,248, and accumulated 28 total TDs.
Lastly, FBS teams playing their second game against an FBS team playing their season opener are only covering 39% of the time ATS. There is game tape on FSU’s one dimensional offense and a putrid run defense. On defense BC will be able to stack the box against the run and force DJ Uiagalelei to throw the ball downfield. Offensively the Eagles should have their way on the ground.
How many times will you read this week that this team has an edge with a “GUB” (Game under their Belt)?
FBS teams playing game #2 vs an FBS team playing their season opener are 39% ATS since 2008!
If they lost at home they are 4-11 ATS (26.7%)! pic.twitter.com/yw9OUrj23Y
— Ralph Michaels (@CalSportsLV) August 27, 2024
The College Football Experience
For more analysis and entertainment on these games, make sure you turn into The College Football Experience. Colby Dant, PattyC, and NC Nick talk about each FBS game and mix in some FCS games, giving out moneyline and ATS college football picks every Wednesday night!
