We’re one week away from the third major championship of the season. But before that, the PGA Tour plays one of its most prestigious events. A stacked field of the best players on the PGA Tour takes on Muirfield Village Golf Club for the 2024 Memorial Tournament in Dublin, OH. As always, here is an early preview of the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
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2024 MEmorial Tournament Preview
The Golf Course
Following his win at Muirfield at the 1966 Open Championship to complete his career grand slam, Jack Nicklaus purchased a tract of land in Dublin, OH, which is a suburb of his hometown of Columbus, OH. He sought to build a golf community to highlight his career achievements in golf and named it “Muirfield Village.”
Though the land was purchased in 1966, the golf courses on the property were not opened until 1974. The community also began selling houses to the public surrounding the golf course, and many big names reside in the village, such as Jason Day, Urban Meyer, and several prominent members of the Columbus Blue Jackets.
As far as Muirfield Village Golf Club’s conditioning is concerned, few golf courses are more well-maintained and played on the PGA Tour. Jack Nicklaus wanted to create pristine conditions similar to those of Augusta National. Under optimal tournament conditions, the golf course has lush Kentucky bluegrass and ryegrass rough, bentgrass fairways, and fast bentgrass greens.
It is much more important to discuss the recent changes to Muirfield Village. Shortly after the completion of the 2020 Memorial, Jack ripped up the golf course in order to give it a facelift. In April, all the players and caddies were sent a memo summarizing all the changes to the golf course. Here are the notable highlights:
1. All the greens were resurfaced with bentgrass. It is no longer a Bentgrass/Poa mix. In addition, each green had a sub-air system installed below the green surfaces for moisture and temperature control.
2. Almost every green was re-contoured and re-shaped. The only greens that weren’t altered were the greens on Hole 12, 13, 14, and 17.
3. New tee boxes added approximately 100 yards of distance to the scorecard. As a result, the total yardage of Muirfield Village from the championship tees is about 7,500 yards.
4. All fairway and greenside bunkers were completely rebuilt and shifted.
5. In 2023, new tee boxes were added to the 7th and 16th. The holes now play at 573 and 220 yards, respectively.
While the routing of the golf course remains the same, the positions of both greens and fairways are not. Many holes were pushed out and re-contoured the fairway bunkers to shrink the landing zone off the tee. Jack Nicklaus has ripped the governing bodies for not doing anything to control exploding distances in golf. Since they appear to have little interest in doing anything about it, this is his response. In addition, several greens were shifted closer to ponds and creeks to bring them more into play. This was done on Holes 3, 5, 9, and 15.
In addition, Hole No. 15 had the most changes. The par 5 used to see players play up to an elevated fairway off the tee, then downhill to the green. Jack lowered the fairway 10-15 feet to level out the hole. While the hole now plays shorter, he added new bunkers 285-320 yards off the tee to ensure players will need a good drive if they hope to hit the green in two.
In 2024, the much-maligned 16th hole saw some additional tweaking. The tee box was moved 26 yards to the right, and a greenside bunker was removed. Players often complained about how difficult (and unfair) the Par 3 played, especially when it was firm. These changes were made to try and soothe the grumblings.
How did this impact play, if at all? We’ll discuss that next in betting strategies.
Betting Strategies
Here is some general information about Muirfield Village. This will assist in optimizing betting strategies for the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
Par: 72
Length: 7,569 Yards
- As mentioned previously, the recent renovation added over 100 yards to the scorecard.
Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. feet
- Muirfield Village features some of the smallest greens the players will face on the PGA Tour. And given their fast and undulating nature, they play so tiny. The margin for error on approach shots and chip shots is razor-thin.
Agronomy:
- Fairways: Bentgrass
- Rough: Kentucky/Bluegrass/Ryegrass/Fescue Mix – ~4″ in length
- Collars & Approaches: Bentgrass
- Greens: Bentgrass (13+ on stimpmeter)
- Prior to the renovation, the greens were a bentgrass/poa mix
Scoring at Muirfield Village
- 2023: +1.52
- 2022: +1.06
- 2021: +0.97
Muirfield Village features some of the toughest scoring conditions on the PGA Tour. And last year, when the golf course played mega-firm, players struggled mightily. Even in soft conditions, Muirfield Village plays tough because of how punishing it is anytime a player misses. Trouble lurks everywhere on the golf course.
Off The Tee
Since 2015, Muirfield Village ranks as the 33rd toughest on the PGA Tour off the tee. However, it has played significantly tougher in the last three years after the renovation. Over the last two years, it’s played as tough as places like Bay Hill and Riviera, two of the tougher driving courses on the PGA Tour.
Why has it gotten significantly tougher? For starters, the golf course has been modernized to accommodate technological advancements. New fairway bunkers and pinched landing zones have been added to penalize wayward tee shots and put a premium on hitting fairways. Jack Nicklaus has been quite outspoken about how technological advancements are making golf courses obsolete. He’s done enough to try and keep Muirfield relevant by beefing it up with the tee shots.
Last year, the firm conditions made hitting fairways incredibly difficult. But outside of last year, however, Muirfield Village features fairly easy-to-hit fairways. Since 2015, the average driving accuracy at the golf course has been 63.6%. That’s one of the highest clips on the PGA Tour. So overall, there’s a lot of fairway players have at their disposal to try and keep their tee shots in the short grass.
However, Muirfield Village is one of the most punishing to miss a fairway at. The score difference between balls that find the rough and those that hit the fairway is +0.47. That’s the highest difference of active golf courses on the PGA Tour. There’s also a significant penalty for missing in non-rough locations, as there are numerous opportunities to incur a penalty stroke off the tee. Muirfield Village is one of the leaders in both total penalties and reloads off the tee.
Overall, long and straight prevails at Muirfield Village. Players like Jon Rahm, Viktor Hovland, and Patrick Cantlay, three golfers with a tremendous combination of length and accuracy, dominate Muirfield Village. Their ability to avoid the trouble spots off the tee, along with their length to not be miles away from the green with their approach shots, is a great recipe for success at Muirfield Village.
Approach Shots
Muirfield Village also features very tough approach shots. Of all active non-major golf courses on the PGA Tour, it is the 4th toughest with its approach shots. Despite high driving accuracy rates, the green in regulation rate since 2015 is only 58.8%. And post-renovation, it’s been 57.3%, 55.0%, and 50.5% in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively.
Here’s a comparison between the approach shot distribution charts pre and post-renovation (per DataGolf):
2019 Approach Shot Distribution – Pre-renovation
2023 Approach Shot Distribution – Post-renovation
The biggest change was shifting a significant portion of shots between 150 and 175 yards to 200-225 yards. There are also a couple more shots over 250 yards than there were in the past. This, along with numerous penalty areas and small targets on each green, is why the approach shots at Muirfield Village are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour.
Around The Green
Of all active non-major golf courses on the PGA Tour, Muirfield Village has the second-toughest around-the-green conditions. Only TPC River Highlands has tougher ones.
There are a few reasons for this. First, the rough is penal around the green. Not only is it thick, but players have to essentially guess how the ball will come out of it onto the fast, sloping greens at the golf course. It is very difficult to control the ball out of the rough once it hits the green.
The bunkers are also very tough and set well below the putting surface. Considering how small the targets are in certain pin locations, it takes a very delicate touch out of a bunker to get a ball in close proximity to the pin. That’s why, of all active non-major venues on the PGA Tour, Muirfield Village features the 5th toughest greenside bunkers.
As such, Muirfield Village features very low scrambling rates. Last year, players were only successful in getting up and down from off the green 54% of the time. That’s well below the PGA Tour average of 58.6% in the 2022-2023 season. In 2021, it was even lower at 53.6%. So, getting up and down is a chore at Muirfield Village.
Putting
Even though the greens are very undulating and quick, overall, the putting difficulty is about the PGA Tour average. In fact, players have had an easier time putting at Muirfield Village since the renovation than they did before. It’s possible that the switch from bent/poa to bentgrass made the greens roll truer and more predictable.
As far as putting goes, focus on players with strong results on bentgrass, as well as on fast-putting surfaces.
Optimal Player Profile
Here are course fit models, per DataGolf, of the types of players that typically do well at Muirfield Village. In addition, below is a chart describing how players separate themselves from the field at the golf course:
Sometimes, a golf course fit model won’t match how players separate themselves from the field at a tournament. Muirfield Village, however, is highly correlated between relative skill sets and how each skill set causes variance in total strokes gained or lost at the tournament. The course fit chart highly favors good iron players who are great around the green.
At Muirfield Village, iron and around-the-green play has a higher influence on total strokes gained than the average PGA Tour golf course. And while there’s less correlation in the predictive power of putting and off-the-tee performance at Muirfield Village, so too does it have less of an influence on total strokes gained in the tournament.
Last year, players were better able to separate themselves off the tee than at the typical PGA Tour stop. This was actually abnormal to how Muirfield Village typically plays. In the past two years, it has been much harder. The shift might have to do with the firm conditions in 2023, which made it incredibly difficult to hold fairways.
Hitting the green in regulation from the rough was incredibly difficult. However, with an abundance of rain in the area over the last few weeks, expect the golf course to play a little softer and revert back to the mean.
Overall, success at Muirfield Village comes down to great iron play, a delicate touch around the green, limiting huge numbers on the scorecard, and some luck. That will be the recipe for whoever earns the win at the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
Follow the tips in this preview, and one should be able to put together a solid DFS lineup and betting card for the 2024 Memorial Tournament.
