There is no other team being more disrespected in the playoffs than the OKC Thunder. After being the youngest team to ever clinch a one-seed, the disrespect continued with media outlets giving them little to no chance. Don’t believe me? Look at their odds and compare them to other previous number-one seeds. They are fourth to win the Western Conference and sixth to win the NBA title. The Thunder take on the Pelicans while the Lakers and Nuggets clash, we preview these series and make predictions and best bets.
This Is the first OKC playoff game since 2019. They have the second-best home record in the NBA, and after not having a postseason game in five years, you can bet the Paycom Center will be on fire. It will not be easy, as the Pelicans will be coming in with confidence and rhythm after a big win against the Kings. Can the short-handed Pelicans push the young Thunder team? Can SGA lead the Thunder to their first series win since 2015-2016? Let’s discuss
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Thunder vs Pelicans & Nuggets vs Lakers Series Preview &Predictions
(1) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (8) New Orleans Pelicans
Can The Zion-less Pelicans Compete?
In 13 games without Zion this year, the Pelicans went 8-5. One of those five losses came at the hands of OKC. Without Zion on the floor, the ball movement is a little more fluid. It also allows them to have more shooting, which is always a positive. This is not to say the Pelicans are better without Zion. I am just pointing out the pros of not having him.
We know what the weakness of the Thunder is. They are thin in the front court and are relying on Chet to stay out of foul trouble. There are similarities between the Kings’ and the Thunder, so I would think the Pelicans staff would roll out a similar game plan. That game plan is centered (no pun intended) around Jonas Valanciunas and pounding the ball on the interior.
In the first few possessions, it was evident how Willie Green wanted his team to play. Back-to-back post touches for Valanciunas and then putting Ingram in several post-up sets. OKC is better defensively than the Kings, but being physical in the paint and locating shooters should be at the top of the to-do list.
Can OKC Capitalize On Historic Season?
There are only two teams in the top five in offensive and defensive rating this year. The Boston Celtics and, you guessed it, the Oklahoma City Thunder. They have numerous ways to beat you, and their personnel are equipped to handle any type of situation regardless of opponent. Being that versatile is why the Thunder have been such a dangerous team this year.
In three games this season, OKC went 2-1, with both wins coming on the road. In their second matchup, the Pelicans were without Zion, and the Thunder won by 24. Is that foreshadowing of things to come? Maybe, but I do think OKC has the firepower to win by a margin on a nightly basis. Their defense is the most underrated part of their team.
They do a great job turning teams over and converting that to easy offense. Their versatility allows them to switch every pick and roll, which forces teams to get into their offense later. Add that type of defense to their offensive prowess and you have a team who is poised for a deep playoff run. Did I mention they were being disrespected?
Who Wins? Why?
As I mentioned earlier, I think we do get a competitive series but in the end, I expect the Thunder to overwhelm the Pelicans. The Thunder starting lineup has continuity and has been dominant throughout the year. I think that is important going into the playoffs where you rely so heavily on your main guys. My biggest concern is the depth behind Chet if he gets in foul trouble.
Valanciunas was able to draw two quick fouls on Sabonis, and that somewhat changed how the Kings wanted to play on offense. OKC is much deeper than the Kings but their ability to keep Chet on the floor will be critical. The only data point we have with this Pelicans roster, we saw OKC dominate.
I think we see a huge surge from Jalen Williams in this series. He did not play up to his standard in two of the three matchups but in their most recent matchup, he did score 26 points. His aggression and ability to take the pressure off of SGA will open things up for the best shooting three-point team in the NBA.
They have had a week to hear about how they are a weak one seed and they have no shot to get to the Western Conference Finals. Game one will be a tone-setter and that will carry over as the Thunder pluck the Pelicans in five games.
Best Bet: OKC -2.5 games (-125)
There is having someone’s number, and then there is what Denver has been doing to the Lakers. The Nuggets not only swept the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals but followed that up by sweeping them this year. Outside of D’lo missing one game and KCP missing the last two, both teams were healthy. Darvin Ham is documented as saying they want all of the smoke, and we know how Malone feels.
Both teams ended the year playing well. The Lakers won 11 of their last 15, and Denver won 10 of their last 15. There are questions on both sides, no matter if it is the consistency of the Lakers’ offense or the depth concerns for Denver. The great thing about the playoffs is that no question goes unanswered. So, let’s break this down from each team’s perspective to see if we can get you on the right side of the series.
(2) Denver Nuggets vs. (7) Los Angeles Lakers
Can The Nuggets Continue Their Dominance?
Remember after game one of the Western Conference Finals, where the Lakers put Rui Hachimura on Jokic and thought they had something? After averaging 28 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists in four games, we saw that was false. There is no shame in that because all 29 teams have that same issue. Despite losing Bruce Brown in the off-season, the Nuggets had several guys step up and play big roles throughout the regular season.
The starting five of the Nuggets are possibly the best in the NBA. Their offensive rating of 125.9 is number one by far of lineups who have played more than 250 minutes together. Not to mention that when it is winning time in the fourth quarter, this lineup is outscoring opponents by around six points per 100 possessions.
An underrated aspect of this Nuggets team is their ability to defend. They are top 10 in defensive efficiency and one of four teams who are top 10 in offensive efficiency as well. Their ability to protect the paint will be key in this specific series as the Lakers are relentless in getting to the rim. Despite being -36 in free-throw attempts in the last seven games against the Lakers, they still managed to come out on top.
How Can The Lakers Win This Series?
Outside of Jokic retiring before game one, I’m unsure. All jokes aside, there are a few paths to victory for the Lakers. It starts on the defensive side of the ball. As discussed earlier, you are not going to stop Jokic, but you can limit his supporting cast. As good as Jokic was in their playoff series, it was Jamal Murray’s 32 points, 6 rebounds, and 5 assists per game that doomed them.
The Lakers’ defensive rating was slightly below average this year, and while they have been better in the last few weeks, it is still not good enough. Darvin Ham has been tinkering with rotations all year and has yet to find a good secondary one to his starting five. A big issue with the Lakers starting lineup is that they have two liabilities defensively. It is an issue because that lineup is their best offensive lineup. So, how Ham navigates this is critical to how this series will play out.
Offensively the Lakers haven’t had an issue. They are coring nearly 110 points per game BUT their offense falters in important parts of the game. We saw that on display when they surrendered a double-digit lead late to the Pelicans a few days back. Attacking the paint and getting to the free-throw line is the bread and butter for the Lakers but that has not been working against this Denver defense.
The tweak in the game plan has to be for the Lakers to take and make more three-pointers. They are 29th in three-point rate offense but 8th in percentage. Once those threes start falling, it will force Denver to adjust their defense and then the driving lanes become more advantageous. Three-point variance is critical in every series but in this specific matchup, I think it is worth a little more. After all, they have tried everything else and lost, so what else do they have to lose?
Who Wins? Why?
The Lakers have gotten better, and Denver does have more questions this year than last. Their bench, specifically, is a cause for concern. Rotations do shrink in the playoffs, but the depth of the Lakers could test the Denver bench. The Lakers can comfortably throw 8 or 9 guys out which could give their starters more energy to finish off games.
After reading that, you probably think I am going to pick the Lakers, but that is incorrect. I have questions on their side as well, specifically with the defense. D’lo got played off the floor last year because he could not defend anyone on the floor. Reaves battled, but he struggled to defend the movement and pick-and-roll sets of Denver. With those two being a focal point of your offense, they can not afford to not be on the floor.
So, what does Darvin Ham do? I don’t think even he has the answer to that question. I can’t definitively take either side, but I do think we get a longer competitive series. A split in the first two games would make this bet even better. Even at 2-0, I think the Lakers can protect home court. So we will go with . . .
Best Bet: Exact Series Games = 6 (+230)