Everton have been on a woeful run of late. Despite a late equaliser against Newcastle and a precious point gained, the team has not won a fixture since December 16th. It is – by a distance – the worst form in the Premier League. They sit a few points off the relegation zone, and it is looking precarious.
Yet, it is worth noting that most bookies give Everton a very good chance of staying up. Some Premier League betting relegation markets offer odds of 11/4 for Everton to go down, which does not seem wholly representative of the team with the worst form in the Premier League.
We can, of course, parse out some of the reasons why bookies believe Everton will avoid the drop. For a start, the Toffees have a fairly favourable fixture list to end the season, including games against Burnley, Sheffield United and Luton. Although, for a balance we should say they also have games against Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea.
Nonetheless, bookies and some Everton fans are clearly in the frame of mind that Everton will have enough in them to vanquish the teams below them, getting enough to scrape by for yet another season in the Premier League. To an extent, we can understand this sentiment. Everton have been unlucky at times, and they play better football than their points tally shows. Goals have been an issue, but fans may feel Dominic Calvert-Lewin will deliver when it matters, as he did against Newcastle.
More points deductions may come
Yet, may we suggest a fly in the ointment? Everton have been buoyed by the reduction in their initial 10-point penalty for breaking financial fair play rules, which was reduced to 6 points. That four-point swing saw a distinct shortening of Everton’s survival odds. But another decision from the Premier League looms, and we should see it sometime this month. There may be more appeals, which raises the prospect of a points deduction deciding relegation after the season has ended.
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The fact that this could play havoc with bookies’ payouts is for another day, but it’s enough to say that Everton may end up in a difficult position. Say, theoretically, the Premier League hands Everton another 6-point deduction, putting them back in the relegation zone. Think of how that would galvanize the teams around them, and consider the likelihood of Everton going to title-chasing Arsenal on the final day of the season needing a win.
The point of this is not to deride Everton’s chances of staying up. Indeed, we would argue that they are a better team than any one of Burnley, Sheffield United, and Luton. Moreover, we should note that Nottingham Forest also have a points deduction hanging over them. Instead, it is to point out that everything is not what it seems when you look at the table, or the betting odds for that matter. Stopping short of saying you should back Everton for the drop at odds of nearly 3/1, we would instead say that those odds might look huge in a few weeks’ time.
