Of course, there are plenty out there taking blind guesses at this stuff. It’s easy to pick the most popular player or look at what happened in the last game. However, we spent the time pouring through the analytics to make sure that we give you the best odds to stay in the green on these first FG props for March 10.
Come check out what we have cooked up for this slate of games.
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NBA First FG Props – March 10
Washington Wizards vs. Miami Heat
Tipoff – 6:00 pm EST
Kaseya Center – Miami, Florida
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
The Heat have a sizable league over the Wizards on all the predictors of first buckets. Their past success at grabbing the first score is the more obvious and clear. They are getting the first field goal at a 56.5% rate, which is good enough to put them in 7th in the league. The Wizards on the other hand are only getting it 48.4% of the time, which puts them in 18th.
The tipoff data is even more clear. The Heat are again a top 10 team in that category, coming in at 6th (62.9% win rate). The Wizards, meanwhile, are one of the very worst in the league. Their 35.5% win rate puts them 27th in the NBA.
Tyler Herro is out again with his foot tendinitis, which will mark eight straight that he’s missed. In his absence, Duncan Robinson has been getting a huge share of the early shots. He’s take of of the team’s first three shots in each of the last two games. If they come out shooting from deep, it’ll likely be him getting the rep.
First FG Bet for March 10: Duncan Robinson (+900)
Brooklyn Nets vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Tipoff – 7:00 pm EST
Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse – Cleveland, Ohio
Broadcast – NBA League Pass
Jarrett Allen is one of the very best in the league at winning the tip. He’s getting 75.4% of all tips, which is good for second in the league amongst tip guys with at least 20 tipoffs. He only trails Kristaps Porzingis in the category.
In addition to having one of the best tip guys in the league, they also have a lead on the first field goal over the Nets. They’re 6th in the league on the first bucket and have a 8.1% lead over the Nets in that category. With those two advantages in tow, we’ll lean to the Cavaliers to find a pick here.
There are two players on Cleveland that seems to be getting the lion’s share of the early shots. Both Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen have taken one of the Cavaliers’ first three shots in each of their last three games. I like the longer odds on Garland a bit better, so we’ll go that way.
First FG Bet for March 10: Darius Garland (+600)
If you’d like even more info to help make your first FG bets for March 10, check out the NBA Gambling Podcast. They’re dropping episodes five days a week to make you the smartest guy/gal at the bar.
