Analyzing NL MVP Candidates: What Do Betting Odds Say?

Analyzing NL MVP Candidates: What Do Betting Odds Say?

Becoming the best of the best in the National League is about to reach another level of difficulty in 2024. Ronald Acuña Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Bryce Harper are all top NL MVP candidates who have actually won the award before, and the league is populated with top young talent, too: Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, and more.

Who are the favorites? Who are the underdogs? What do the sportsbooks say? We will give you every tool you need to make your bet. We have already analyzed the AL MVP candidates. Now, it’s the National League’s turn.

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Analyzing NL MVP Candidates: What Do Betting Odds Say?

Ronald Acuña Jr., Atlanta Braves (+550)

A .337/.416/.596 line, a 1.012 OPS, 149 runs scored, 35 doubles, 217 hits, 106 RBI, and the first 40-70 season in history (41 homers, 73 steals). That’s what Acuña did last year, taking home his first NL MVP award.

Surrounded by the same talent he had last year on the Braves and eager to return to the World Series, there is no reason to think Acuña will slow down in 2024, even if such a historic season probably won’t be repeated.

Both DraftKings (+550) and bet365 (+450) like him better to repeat, ahead of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ trio (Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman) and Bryce Harper. Acuña is just so good and motivated that only he can be an MVP favorite in the same league in which Ohtani plays.

Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (+650)

Betts, the 2018 AL MVP, did everything in his power to be the man in the NL last year. He hit .307 with 39 long balls, 107 RBI, 126 runs scored, 40 doubles, and even 14 stolen bases. But there was a guy named Acuña who wrote his own name into the record books and prevented Mookie from taking home his second career award.

The 2024 campaign presents an exciting opportunity for Betts. Acuña, even if he is the favorite, is unlikely to steal 70+ bases again, and Ohtani will be exclusively a hitter. A similar performance to that of last year will probably result in Betts taking home the prestigious piece of hardware.

Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers (+650)

As Sarah Langs recently pointed out, only five players have won MVP awards with different teams: Frank Robinson, Jimmie Foxx, Alex Rodriguez, Bryce Harper, and Barry Bonds. Out of that group, only Robinson won at least one trophy in each league.

Ohtani, the AL MVP in 2021 and 2023, could potentially join Robinson in that exclusive group later this year. After moving to the Dodgers, he is one of the firmest NL MVP candidates around, and his odds are better than everyone else but Acuña and Betts: DraftKings and bet365 have them tied at +650 and +600, respectively, but other sportsbooks such as Fanduel and Caesars slightly prefer Betts.

Ohtani is not expected to pitch in 2024 due to elbow surgery performed in the offseason. If that weren’t the case, we would probably be talking about him as the favorite.

Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres (+1000)

The league has somewhat forgotten what a fully healthy Tatis can bring to the table. Last year was his first after serious shoulder surgery: he was probably getting his timing, swing, and power back- Nevertheless, he slashed a cool .257/.322/.449 with 25 dingers, 29 steals, and a .770 OPS.

There is a chance that he will regain the form that made him a 40-40 threat in 2021, the year in which he had a .975 OPS, too. It’s not a given, but it’s enough to make him fourth on the NL MVP candidates list according to both Draftkings (+1000) and bet365 (+1000), tied with the 2015 and 2021 winner, Bryce Harper.

Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies (+1000)

Barry Bonds is way ahead in the “most MVP awards in MLB” list with seven. Harper, however, can tie a long list of second-placed players (a group of 10 that includes the likes of Mickey Mantle, Mike Trout, Yogi Berra, and Alex Rodriguez, among others) if he wins again in 2024.

Given the long list of quality NL MVP candidates this year, Harper’s odds aren’t the best but according to Draftkings and bet365, they are the same as Tatis’. After recovering from Tommy John surgery in late 2022, he made his 2023 debut in May, and he took a while to get going. Once that happened, however, he was the same productive hitter we all know, as his .900 OPS in 126 games proves.

Other Notable NL MVP Candidates:

Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (+1200)
Matt Olson, Atlanta Braves (+1400)
Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1800)
Manny Machado, San Diego Padres (+2200)
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies (+2200)
Austin Riley, Atlanta Braves (+2500)

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