Now that Shohei Ohtani is off to the National League, AL MVP candidates have a clearer path to winning the award. Of course, it won’t be easy: the competition will be fierce, as the junior circuit still boasts some of the most talented players in the world.
There are almost a dozen players with a concrete, realistic chance at winning one of the most prestigious individual recognitions in baseball. Who has the better odds, though?
Analyzing AL MVP Candidates: What Do Betting Odds Say?
Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (+550)
Every major sportsbook in the industry has Aaron Judge as the most evident of AL MVP candidates. He won the award in 2022, the season in which he established the new American League single-season home run record with 62, and is still very much capable of hitting more than 50 in 2024.
DraftKings has Judge’s AL MVP odds at +550, while bet365 has them at +500. According to both platforms, no player in the junior circuit has better odds.
With a healthier Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton and the arrival of Juan Soto to the Yankees, Judge will have more support than ever. He is in his prime, and he has hit 99 dingers over the last two years. 2024, if he is healthy, won’t be different: he will dominate.
Juan Soto, New York Yankees (+600)
If we talk about Judge as one of the best AL MVP candidates, we also have to mention his new teammate, Juan Soto. The former Washington National and San Diego Padre is coming off a highly productive season in which he belted a career-high 35 home runs with a .930 OPS, 109 RBI, and an incredible 132 walks.
If Soto can maintain or improve those numbers in a good-looking Yankees lineup while playing solid defense, his MVP odds could soar. DraftKings has them at +600 and bet365 at +550: both are second in the AL behind Judge.
Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros (+800)
Houston Astros slugger Yordan Álvarez should be in every AL MVP conversation if healthy. Period. There is no other way around it. And, by all accounts, he is entering spring training with a clean bill of health.
In the last three seasons, Yordan ranks third in MLB among qualified hitters in OPS, with .958. The only men ahead of him over that span are Judge (1.017) and Shohei Ohtani (.964).
Everybody talks about José Altuve, Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and other top performers on the Astros. Álvarez, however, is undoubtedly the best hitter on the team and one of the top ten in MLB.
Most sportsbooks have Yordan with the third-best MVP odds in the American League, including DraftKings (+800). Bet365 has him fourth (+800) behind the next guy on our list.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers (+1000)
It’s impossible to overlook shortstop Corey Seager when going through AL MVP candidates. And how can he ignore him if he just had the best season by a Rangers hitter since 2010, Josh Hamilton?
Seager needed just 119 games to accumulate 75 extra-base hits (42 doubles, 33 home runs), 96 RBI and a 1.013 OPS. Bet365 has him with the third-best odds at +700, while DraftKings has him fourth at +1000.
Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners (+1100)
The heart and soul of the Mariners, J-Rod already had an MVP-caliber season in 2023: an .818 OPS, 32 home runs, 103 RBI, 102 runs scored, 37 stolen bases, and 37 doubles. Yes, those are video game numbers. Unfortunately, some guy named Ohtani exists and played in the AL last year.
To really increase their chances to take home the MVP, Rodríguez will need to improve that OPS, though. He won’t win it in the low .800s when there are other players closer to 1.000. In any case, his well-rounded skillset, versatility, baserunning, and defense give him a nice WAR floor.
Other Notable AL MVP Candidates:
Adley Rutschman, Baltimore Orioles (+1300)
Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles (+1500)
Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros (+1700)
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (+2000)
Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals (+2000)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (+2200)
