The game of College Baseball continues to grow, and it is amazing! One of the biggest examples of the sport’s growth has been the NCAA Baseball Gambling market. Not only are College Baseball Betting Odds dropping earlier in the preseason than ever before, but we continue to see new markets offered! Courtesy of BetRivers, I’m giving out my SEC Baseball win totals picks for every team in this article. I have ranked them in confidence 1-14 (1 being most confident and 14 being least).
SEC Baseball Win Totals Picks: College Baseball Betting Odds
Just like College Football Win Totals with this market, we can pick whether each SEC Baseball team will go over or under their allotted amount of wins. One thing to note that is specific to this specific College Baseball gambling market is that only conference games count towards the total.
Each team in the SEC has 30 scheduled league games. There’s a rare chance that a team may not play all 30 due to rainouts or travel schedules (teams needing to make their commercial flights).
I analyzed the 2023 SEC Baseball regular season standings and compared them to the college baseball betting odds that were released. Specifically, I found the two extremes easiest to research. How many teams were elite, and how many teams were very bad?
Past SEC Baseball Win Totals Analysis
First, I noticed that no team achieved more than 20 victories last year. There are currently two SEC Baseball Win Totals set at 20.5 wins (Florida and Arkansas).
However, in the last 10 full seasons (thanks, COVID), 10 SEC Baseball teams have won 21 or more games. Speaking of COVID, the 2021 MLB holdout gave NCAA Baseball crazy momentum, and the sport has grown massively since.
Also, COVID has created crazy instances for kids this season to possibly be in their 5th and 6th full seasons of college sports. Two teams since COVID have eclipsed 20.5 wins. In 2022, Tennessee had 25 dubs, and in 2021, Arkansas had 21 wins. Both of those teams were the nation’s No. 1 overall teams.
Also, on the other extreme, since COVID (2021, 2022, 2023), NINE SEC Baseball teams have finished with less than 11.5 wins. There are currently two lines set at 11.5 wins (Ole Miss and Mississippi State).
Georgia’s win total is set at 9.5, and Missouri’s is at 7.5 victories. Only one team during the three-year span finished lower than the total, and it was last season’s Ole Miss team.
Lastly, only SEC Baseball had two teams with winning records playing away games last year. FYI, the road records on the above graphic include non-conference games. So dock these teams even more when they hit the road.
Florida Gators – Over 20.5 (+110) / Under 20.5 (-143)
On the bump during the weekends for Florida will be two-way superstar Jac Caglianone, Cade Fisher, and Super freshman Liam Peterson. With that said, Fisher was 6-0 with a 3.10 ERA as a reliever last season. Caglianone returns after a solid 7-4, 4.34 ERA, 87 K, 55 BB, 74.2 IP, .190 BAA 2023 campaign.
Peterson is 6’6 with a high 90s heater with very good breaking balls. Then add in trusty bullpen pieces Ryan Slater and Brandon Neely, who led the SEC in Saves last year (13).
The Gators will have five players in the lineup this year who hit double-digit homers a season ago. Cags led the country with 33, Alabama transfer Colby Shelton had 25, and Cade Kurland had 17. Luke Heyman hit 12 homeruns and didn’t consistently start last season. Brody Donay transferred in after hitting 12 bombs for Virginia Tech as a freshman.
This group isn’t even counting Ty Evans. The outfielder rode pine all regular season and then broke out in Omaha with the most bombs ever by a single player in Charles Schwab Field.
Florida drew a super tough schedule with road trips to Fayetteville, Baton Rouge, and Nashville. I’ll chalk up AT LEAST two losses against both Arkansas and LSU, then one to Vanderbilt based on the intro’s information.
Then the Gators host Tennessee, South Carolina, and Texas A&M. Florida plays all five teams (besides themselves) that are in the top six of my SEC Baseball Power Rankings that I listed during our SEC podcast episode.
Florida Over 20.5 Wins (Confidence: 13) Projected Record: 21-9
Arkansas Razorbacks – Over 20.5 (+100) / Under 20.5 (-130)
In my opinion the weekend rotation of Hagen Smith, Brady Tygart, and Mason Molina is more talented, more experienced, and more trustworthy than any other trio in America and that is including Wake Forest.
Hagen Smith has the potential to be the best starting pitcher in College Baseball. The once lanky lefty has filled his frame and was touching triple digits in the fall, along with more developed off-speed offerings.
Tygart has battled injuries in his career, but he has a true four-pitch arsenal that 98% of the country can’t match at this level of baseball. Plus, the righthander is a wizard throwing breaking balls. Then, on Sundays, Mason Molina is projected to get the nod, when at Texas Tech in 2023, he was their SP1.
The Hogs lost a good chunk of production at the plate. Kendall Diggs is their top returnee after a .297 average, .981 OPS, and 63 RBI in the 2023 season. All the returnees behind him either didn’t get a steady diet of plate appearances or had a down year, in Peyton Stovall’s case.
We’ve seen head coach Dave Van Horn work his magic before. For Arkansas to hit their ceiling in 2024, they will need a couple of bounce-backs and breakout seasons. Keep your eye on shortstop Wehiwa Aloy. He is a transfer from Sacramento State on the cusp of a breakout.
Arkansas Over 20.5 Wins (Confidence: 10) Projected Record: 21-9
LSU Tigers O/U 19.5 Wins (-114)
I think everybody just sees that Paul Skenes and Ty Floyd got drafted, and now they don’t want any part in the Tigers, but acquiring Luke Holman in the transfer portal from Alabama was huge, in my opinion. Holman was 7-4 on a team that quite literally had his head coach gambling against him. He had a 3.67 ERA with 87 Ks in 81 innings.
Also, LSU’s two UCLA transfers RHP Thatcher Hurd (2023) and LHP Gage Jump (2024) will be in the rotation. Then, Nate Ackenhausen and Gavin Guidry both returned after they were a part of the bullpen that came around during the postseason.
Lastly, Cam Johnson is a big freshman lefty that pumps upper 90s chedd. If he can consistently find the strike zone, his stuff is gonna play. LSU’s lineup is pretty talented, but the Tigers don’t have many proven SEC commodities outside of my favorite player, Tommy White.
He dislocated his shoulder on day one of the season last year and pretty much played through the entire year with a .377 batting average, a 1.164 OPS, and led the nation in RBI with 105. White had offseason shoulder surgery and missed most of the fall, but I have faith that it won’t slow him down.
LSU Under 19.5 Wins (Confidence: 14) Projected Record: 19-11
Tennessee Volunteers – Over 17.5 (-121) / Under 17.5 (-108)
Head Coach Tony Vitello and Tennessee dominated the Transfer Portal as soon as the commitment window opened. I love the two additions of Cannon Peebles and Billy Amick. Peebles hit .352 with a 1.153 OPS, 12 HR, and 50 RBI with NC State at a premium position where finding great hitting catchers is tough.
Amick comes in from Clemson off of a .413 AVG, 1.263 OPS, 63 RBI, and 13 HR freshman campaign. Both of these guys’ stats will only climb as they now call the shoebox that is Lindsey Nelson Stadium home.
Tennessee’s lineup is loaded for 2024. Peebles and Amick are two of four guys that had double-digit blasts last season. The other two hitters are Christian Moore (17) and Blake Burke (16). Moore is a true five-tool talent as he hit .304 with a 1.047 OPS and also stole 16 bags. Burke has parking lot power and is expected to take another step forward this year with his bat-to-ball skills.
Drew Beam returns and will take over as the Friday Night starter after a 9-4 season with a 3.63 ERA, 88 K, in 84 IP. From there, transfers will have to step in for the Vols and deliver because they’re not proven SEC commodities. The other arms also coming back will have their roles expanded.
A major reason I am extremely high on the Vols this season is their very favorable schedule. I am usually pretty cautious when projecting three-game sweeps, but I have Tennessee picking up three of them. The Volunteers should sweep the home series against Ole Miss, Georgia, and Missouri (three of the four teams at the bottom of my SEC Power Rankings).
I project that Tennessee comfortably covers the over on their SEC Baseball Win Total while losing two total weekend series (At Florida & At Kentucky).
Tennessee Over 17.5 Wins (Confidence: 1) Projected Record: 21-9
Vanderbilt Commodores – Over 17.5 (-127) / Under 17.5 (+100)
Overall, I am not very high on this Vanderbilt squad. The Vandy Boys are currently being advertised as one of the best pitching staffs in NCAA Baseball, but I’m not buying what they’re selling.
The Ace is LHP Carter Holton, who hasn’t had a fully healthy season yet with Vanderbilt, and he took a slight step back last year. Their number two starter returning is Devin Futrell, who has been more reliable than Holton, but Holton’s ceiling is higher.
After those two starters, the next group of guys that are expected to be important arms on this team are young and unproven as SEC Baseball Weekend guys. Greyson Carter, who had a 4.08 ERA in 28.2 IP last year, is all right.
Andrew Dutkanych barely pitched as a freshman last year, and then Super Frosh Ethan McElvain still has to prove it, and he won’t get regular opportunities to build up momentum, unlike Florida’s Super Frosh Liam Peterson.
That doesn’t even touch the lineup, which is always a question mark for Vanderbilt. The Commodores lose their superstar from last year in Enrique Bradfield, and also their top run producer, RJ Schreck. Tim Corbin will have to rely on Troy LaNeve and Jonathan Vastine, who had good summers in the Cape Cod League but haven’t done it yet in the SEC.
Vanderbilt’s schedule doesn’t help them out, either. The Vandy Boys play at South Carolina, at LSU, at Texas A&M, at Kentucky, and then they host Florida and Tennessee.
I have Vandy losing three of those four tough road series while also acknowledging that losing both of their toughest home series to the Vols and Gators is possible. I am predicting Vanderbilt to finish comfortably under their SEC Baseball Win Total.
Vanderbilt Under 17.5 Wins (Confidence: 2) Projected Record: 13-17
South Carolina Gamecocks – Over 16.5 (-121) / Under 16.5 (-108)
Last year, I bet on South Carolina’s elite pitching staff in the preseason while knowing their lineup had a few guys that hadn’t performed to the best of their capabilities in the SEC. Then, during the year, the sticks broke out thanks to the emergence of super-frosh Ethan Petry. The outfielder hit .376 with a 1.204 OPS, 23 blasts, and 75 RBI in his first year.
It wasn’t just a one-man breakout show, though. Gavin Casas hit 19 bombs with 53 RBI, Cole Messina batted .306 with a 1.093 OPS and 17 homers. All three hitters return along with many of the other contributors to one of NCAA Baseball’s most powerful offenses.
On the mound, the Gamecocks have plenty of depth pieces to contend, but they need some guys to step up into weekend rotation roles.
The top two early candidates are Eli Jones and LHP Matthew Becker. Becker started 11 games last year with 71 K, in 54 IP, and a 4.83 ERA. Jones was solid whenever his number was called as a reliever or in his 6 starts. He had a 3.95 ERA and 63 K in 55 IP.
South Carolina Over 16.5 Wins (Confidence: 5) Projected Record: 18-12
Texas A&M Aggies O/U 16.5 Wins (-114)
Offensively, Jim Schlossnagle-coached teams always thrive, and the Aggies have reloaded this season. The Aggies bring in four transfers that batted over .300 with an OPS north of .975 (Braden Montgomery, Ted Burton, Ali Camarillo, Hayden Schott).
Add that mix of quality players with returning outfielder Jace LaViolette. He aims to avoid a sophomore slump after slashing .288/.421/.628 with 20 swipes, 63 RBI, and 50 runs during his freshman season.
However, the pitching staff is once again a question for Schloss in College Station. In last year’s SEC Baseball Tournament, I could see potential in the lefties Troy Wansing and Justin Lamkin, mainly because their arm angles and stuff are disgusting.
They also get Ryan Prager back from injury this year, who was the 2022 wonderboy out of the bullpen for the Aggies, and then Tanner Jones was a solid grab in the portal that projects to be a weekend starter. All four pitchers are relatively unproven as SEC starters, but they have shown some potential in the past.
Texas A&M Under 16.5 Wins (Confidence: 11) Projected Record: 16-14
Kentucky Wildcats O/U 14.5 Wins (-114)
Kentucky is a fundamentally sound baseball team. The Wildcats play in a big park, which is unlike many of the other SEC shoeboxes, and I believe Coach Nick Mingione has built this team to play its best in their home environment (and Omaha).
Pitching and defense are the name of the game for the Cats, as they were tied with Oral Roberts for having the nation’s best fielding percentage.
Kentucky returns Travis Smith, who made 12 starts for Kentucky a year ago. Also, Mason Moore is coming back. Moore emerged as UK’s go-to leverage guy with a 1.80 ERA in 55 innings.
Moore was basically lights out in the back half of the season when he got his chance with a lead. Mingione and the staff have been stretching Moore out in the offseason, and they plan to use him as a starter this season.
Offensively Kentucky has plenty of depth, but no stars that really stand out from the pack. Wildcats’ catcher, Devin Burkes, could be the top hitter for this team in 2024. As a Sophomore, Burkes hit .291 with a .925 OPS with 9 homers and 18 doubles.
Typically, in between the sophomore and junior years, you see some of those deep doubles translate into home runs. UK’s shortstop/second base duo in Grant Smith and Emilien Pitry, return too. They’re both excellent defensively and solid at the plate. Pitre hit .318 with an .854 OPS, 51 runs scored, 51 RBI, and 20 stolen bags. Smith batted .281 and an .828 OPS.
Kentucky Over 14.5 Wins (Confidence: 7) Projected Record: 15-15
Auburn Tigers O/U 14.5 Wins (-114)
This year, Auburn has been steadily ramping RHP Joseph Gonzalez up throughout the Fall and Winter. That way, he should be nearing his peak when the NCAA Baseball season begins. Coach Butch Thompson and the staff are hoping he can hold up until June.
If Gonzalez stays healthy, Thompson and the Tigers will have a proven SEC SP1 for this season that they didn’t have last year. In 2022, Gonzalez had a 3.22 ERA in 14 starts with 54 K and only 15 walks.
Behind Gonzalez, Chase Allsup is a nice Saturday starter. From there, some guys need to step up, but they have some depth and talent. The Tigers staff is just unproven, but don’t doubt Coach Thompson to figure it out because of his background as a pitching coach. Thompson has done more with less on the bump before.
Offensively, I am a big believer in Ike Irish. He DHed during his freshman year but is expected to be this year’s starting catcher. Irish hit .361 with a .975 OPS, and he flew under the radar in his first SEC baseball season. I think he and Bobby Peirce can lead this offense to being competitive each and every weekend.
However, drawing series at LSU, at Texas A&M, at Vanderbilt, while hosting Arkansas and Tennessee. Auburn is a team that I want to believe in, but the schedule ahead of them is very tough.
Auburn Under 14.5 Wins (Confidence: 9) Projected Record: 14-16
Alabama Crimson Tide O/U 13.5 Wins (-114)
On paper, this is a lethal pitching staff. Ben Hess is a monster, and if all goes well, he will be the Friday Night Starter. Hess is 6’5, 250 pounds, and was 4-0 with a 3.22 ERA, 49 K, and 8 BB in 36.1 IP before elbow soreness ended his 2023 season.
Then, the quartet of the next top four arms will settle into their roles in the weekend rotation and be the go-to pieces out of the bullpen. 6’6 260 Riley Quick who is a 3quarter guy, Alton Davis who finished last year as the closer, Aidan Moza who was solid in the Cape Cod League last Summer, and 6’6 245 Louisville transfer Greg Farone.
With those five guys, along with some experienced transfer portal gets, and some big in stature freshmen, the Crimson Tide have one of the most talented pitching staffs in the SEC.
At the plate, Alabama returns one starter from last year, and it’s their catcher, Mac Guscette. Honestly, with only one position player, that’s where you would want that returner to be with this stacked pitching staff.
My pick to click is the Rutgers transfer outfielder Evan Sleight, who hit .315 with a 1.006 OPS last season. This lineup, just like Sleight, is full of transfers, and we really don’t have an idea of how good they’ll be.
I’m going to tap the breaks on my hope for the quick rebuild in Head Coach Rob Vaughn’s first year as an SEC skipper. The conference schedule doesn’t help out the Tide very much in my opinion.
I have Alabama losing five straight series to open the year and only winning two total three-game sets. Alabama finishing under their SEC Baseball Win Total is one of my favorite bets this season.
Alabama Under 13.5 Wins (Confidence: 4) Projected Record: 11-19
Mississippi State Bulldogs – Over 11.5 (-130) / Under 11.5 (+100)
Mississippi State dealt with a boatload of pitching injuries last season. Nate Dohm, Bradley Loftin, Pico Kohn, Stone Simmons, and Brooks Auger all missed at least a stint of games and most of the season due to injury. Because of that freshman ambidextrous pitcher pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje was thrown into the fire.
Now, new Pitching Coach Justin Parker can mix and match with all of those arms who are coming back, plus Colby Holcomb, Khal Stephen, and Miami transfer Karson Ligon. There is talent on the mound and the potential to not finish last in the SEC Baseball standings for ERA (7.01).
If the Bulldogs have a mediocre pitching staff, they will eclipse this 11.5 SEC Baseball Win Total. Hunter Hines will be the centerpiece of Mississippi State’s offense. The left-handed slugger is going to be drafted high in 2024 because he has performed great for two years.
Last season, Hines batted .297, including a 1.058 OPS, 22 homers, and 61 RBI. If Hines is 1A, Dakota Jordan is 1B. Jordan has superstar potential with speed and power after posting a .307/.397/.575 with 10 homers in his freshman campaign.
Mississippi State Over 11.5 Wins (Confidence: 8) Projected Record: 12-18
Ole Miss Rebels – Over 11.5 (-130) / Under 11.5 (+100)
Just like their Mississippi brethren, Ole Miss will struggle to pitch efficiently this season. The Rebels have a little bit more of an excuse, though. Mississippi’s top two pitchers (Tommy Elliott and Xavier Rivas) are out for this season recovering from Tommy John surgery.
JT Quinn, Grayson Saunier, Mason Nichols, Riley Maddox, and Josh Mallitz are the best options on paper from the grab bag of what’s left of serviceable options on the mound.
Offensively, Head Coach Mike Bianco completely turned over the roster. However, he probably won the transfer portal. Newcomers Luke Hill, Andrew Fischer, Treyson Hughes, and Jackson Ross look to be the focal point of the offense.
Hill had a .314 batting average and an .845 OPS as a freshman in the Pac-12. Fischer put up a .999 OPS and 11 bombs as a freshman in the ACC. Both guys are young and already proven against power-conference pitching.
Ross (.345/.437/.605, 14 HR, 20 SB) was an established star with Florida Atlantic, and Hughes recorded (.386/.502/.601, 11 HR, 15 2B) at Mercer. We will see how that translates against SEC pitching. Either way, the Rebs are fighting an uphill battle from the get-go this season.
Ole Miss Under 11.5 Wins (Confidence: 6) Projected Record: 11-19
Georgia Bulldogs – Over 10.5 (+100) / Under 10.5 (-130)
Wes Johnson was a great hire, and he’s just a baseball lifer. He’s almost too much of a lifer because I’m just not sure if Georgia is the long-term home for him based on his track record. Johnson’s most recent stop was a one-year stint with LSU, and the Tigers won the National Championship with him.
During his 14 days in Omaha, it is well documented that Johnson knew that he had the job at Georgia and began to work 19-hour days getting all of these guys through the transfer portal. That way, the Bulldogs wouldn’t get left behind so far in the pack.
One thing you can count on for the Bulldogs is their stud Charlie Condon, who played for the USA Collegiate Baseball National Team in the Summer and is a consensus top 10 MLB Draft pick this year. Wes Johnson deserves a pat on the back just for keeping him in Athens. Condon hit .386 with a 1.284 OPS and 25 dingers as a freshman in the country’s best conference.
Perhaps the biggest beneficiary on LSU from Coach Wes Johnson was RHP Paul Skenes. The 2023 #1 Overall draft pick added nearly 10 mph to his fastball. Skenes also developed a nasty breaking ball.
Additionally, Johnson worked his magic when he was tasked with supervising a bullpen that was average from February to May. In June, that unit hit a different level, and LSU wouldn’t have won the Natty without their clutch pitching.
There are a lot of new pieces in Athens for 2024, but I trust Johnson to put together a competitive ballclub. The Bulldogs also draw one of the best schedules in the conference.
I am predicting Georgia to win the home series vs. Alabama, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt. With those eight wins now, all we’re asking is for the Dawgs to avoid getting swept twice. If that happens, we cash this SEC Baseball Win Total.
Georgia Over 10.5 Wins (Confidence: 3) Projected Record: 12-18
Missouri Tigers – Over 7.5 (-137) / Under 7.5 (+100)
With so many unproven SEC commodities in the lineup and on the bump, I have Missouri finishing last in this elite conference. As a team expected to have a bad year, you would like to play on the road against the teams that are expected to be really good and at home against the bottom half teams. But the Tigers host Florida, LSU, and South Carolina, plus they also take road trips to Arkansas and Tennessee.
Ironically, Missouri could maybe steal one game against the Razorbacks and/or Tennessee because of the border war with Arkansas or Head Coach Tony Vitello being a former player for Missouri under Tim Jamieson, who is Missouri’s new pitching coach this season. In that case, maybe Vitello won’t release the hounds that weekend. Especially with the Florida Gators during the next weekend.
Right now, I just view Mizzou as a Kentucky-lite. They are going to try to beat teams with their fundamentals and speed rather than outslugging teams at the plate and striking them out on the mound.
Defensively, Missouri has a really good pair of middle infielders in Trevor Austin and Matt Garcia, plus an athletic and speedy outfield of Jeric Curtis, Juju Stevens, and Kaden Peer.
Lastly, the cousin of Yadier Molina, Jedier Hernandez, behind the plate. If a given team doesn’t bring their B-game to play against Missouri, they could catch an L if Wake Forest transfer Danny Corona contributes big time to this offense, and they can piece together good pitching performances.
Missouri Under 7.5 Wins (Confidence: 12) Projected Record: 6-24
The College Baseball Experience
For more analysis and entertainment on college baseball gambling, make sure you tune into The College Baseball Experience. During the season, Colby Dant and Noah Bieniek will talk about and pick the winners of the biggest series of each weekend.
