Playoffs? You want to talk about the playoffs? Of course, I do! The article that gave us a 49-24 record continues into the playoffs. Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? Get ready with these NFL playoff trends, picks, and predictions for the first round!
We may have come up short last week, going 2-3. However, we’re still ready to roll into the playoffs with our winning 49-24 record. While this article normally picks just five games, what’s one more? Let’s take a look at the entire weekend slate!
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NFL Playoff Trends, Picks, and Predictions For Round 1 (49-24 Record)
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) @ Houston Texans
The Deshaun Watson bowl! Ironically, Watson won’t be playing due to injury. However, these are the two teams that were involved in the Watson trade, so it’s worth mentioning.
The Browns finished red hot with Joe Flacco at the helm. The Texans have been a fun team to watch all year with rookie CJ Stroud. Which side do the trends like in our NFL playoff trends, picks, and predictions?
The Texans have done well against Cleveland in the last ten games against them. In fact, they’ve gone 7-3 against the spread (ATS) in the last ten. They’re also 7-3 ATS with CJ Stroud starting.
They’ve been 5-2 ATS against teams with a winning record and 10-5 ATS as an underdog. You know the stadium will be rocking as the Texans’ fans are excited for their future.
The Browns are 3-11 ATS on the road as favorites of seven points or less. However, they are 17-7-1 ATS on a grass field. They haven’t been great against teams that just won.
They’re 4-10-1 ATS against an opponent coming off a straight-up win. However, they are 5-2 ATS on Saturday. The Browns are 8-17 ATS after playing the Bengals. Which team will come out ahead?
NFL Playoff Prediction based on Trends: Texans (+1.5) win and move forward.
Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5)
The Dolphins have put up big stats all year. However, they’ve struggled against teams with winning records. They have a negative 84-point differential against playoff teams.
The Chiefs have also struggled. Yes, they’ve won games, but they haven’t looked like the same dominant team. Which side do the trends like in our NFL playoff trends, picks, and predictions?
The Dolphins struggle not only against winning teams but also against Andy Reid. They are 1-6 ATS in the last seven games against Reid as a head coach. They’re also 1-5 as an underdog of seven points or less. This is because they rarely win as an underdog.
They’re 1-5 ATS against teams with a winning record and 3-7 ATS on grass fields. This game will be cold for the warm-weathered Dolphins.
The Chiefs may have looked off at times this year. However, they are an experienced team that’s looking to make a playoff run. The Chiefs are 8-2 ATS against opponents that just played Buffalo. They’re also 6-1 ATS against opponents coming off a conference loss.
The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS after playing the Chargers and 8-2 ATS against top passing teams. Unlike the Dolphins, the Chiefs have done alright against teams with winning records. They’re 5-2 ATS in those games.
NFL Playoff Prediction based on Trends: Chiefs (-4.5) advance in the playoffs again.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Buffalo Bills (-10)
The red-hot Bills take on a team that snuck into the playoffs in the Steelers. My gut says take the Bills to complete the annual blowout game of the Wild Card round. However, we’re not picking based on our gut! What do the NFL playoff trends tell us to bet?
The Bills are 1-6 ATS as a seven-point or more favorite and 0-7 ATS in the last seven games that they’ve been a 10-point favorite. They’re 2-5 ATS after playing on Sunday night.
The Bills are also 2-5 ATS in playoff games. My gut says they route the Steelers. The trends do not.
Let’s turn to the Steelers. They are 14-4-1 ATS on the road in January. They are 8-2 ATS after six or more days of rest. They are also 59-37-3 as road underdogs and 7-0 ATS against rushing defenses in the bottom 15 like the Bills.
NFL Playoff Prediction based on Trends: Bills win, but Steelers (+10) cover.
Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
The Packers are the youngest team in playoff history since that stat has been tracked. The Cowboys have been here before but usually choke. They have been owned by Green Bay in the last 10 games.
However, that was with Aaron Rodgers at the helm. What do the NFL playoff trends say will happen with Jordan Love?
The Cowboys are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games. They’re 11-4 ATS after a blowout win like last week against the Commanders.
The Cowboys have struggled with teams with winning records. In those games, they’re 1-6 ATS in the last seven. They are also 7-19 ATS in January.
The Packers, on the other hand, are 7-1 ATS as underdogs of seven or more points. They’re 8-2 on the road ATS after playing the Bears and 6-2 ATS playing an opponent that just played Washington.
The Packers are also 11-4 ATS against teams that are top 15 in passing, like the Cowboys.
NFL Playoff Prediction based on Trends: Cowboys win, but Packers cover (+7.5)
LA Rams @ Detroit Lions (-3)
This is a fun narrative-based matchup. The teams that exchanged Goff and Stafford, along with some picks, face off against each other. The Rams, just two years removed from the Super Bowl, against the up-and-coming Lions. Which team do the NFL playoff trends back?
The Rams have been red-hot lately, but is that enough? They’re 3-11-1 ATS against the NFC North in the last 15 matchups. They’re also 2-8 ATS on the road when on winning streaks of four games or more.
While they are 10-4-1 ATS against high-scoring teams like the Lions, they’re 23-32-2 against teams that pass the ball well like the Lions.
The Lions, on the other hand, are 12-2-1 ATS against teams with winning records. They’re 12-3 ATS when revenging a loss and 35-15-1 ATS under head coach Dan Cambell. The Lions are also 12-3 ATS when the line is above 45.5 points. The total for this game is 50.5.
NFL Playoff Prediction based on Trends: The Bears fan in me cringes….Lions (-3)
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) @ Tampa Bay Bucs
The Eagles have been talked bout a lot in the media on whether or not they are a broken team. Not enough of the media is talking about the job Baker has done for Tampa Bay. Which team do the NFL playoff trends think wins the game?
The Bucs are 1-6 ATS in Wild Card weekend games. They’re also 1-6 ATS at home against NFC teams. They’re 4-11 ATS at home after playing Carolina and 4-11 against the NFC East. Finally, it doesn’t look good for the Bucs as they’re 1-6 ATS on Monday nights.
Things aren’t all rosy for the Eagles, either. I have to dig deep to find some positive trends for them. They are 7-3 ATS against the NFC South.
They’re also 69-48-2 ATS on a longer than six-day rest. The Eagles are also 5-1-1 ATS against poor rushing teams. The Bucs finished last in the league in total rushing yards.
NFL Playoff Prediction based on Trends: Cautiously Eagles (-3), but I have a feeling it ends in a PUSH.
