The NFL regular season is almost over, and you only have a few more days to put in those Week 17 NFL Picks. We are going to look at some public betting trends and some NFL trends in this article. Let’s look at the information we have to help us make smarter bets. Make sure you are tuning in to the sportsgamblingpodcast.com YouTube channel and subscribing to our podcasts. Join the degen nation. Let it ride!
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NFL Picks Week 17: Public and Season Long NFL Betting Trends
NFL Betting Trends
Home Team: 55.8%
Away Team: 44.2%
Favorites: 67.5%
Underdog: 32.5%
Overs: 45%
Unders: 55%
Saturday, December 30th
Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Lions Money line: +190
Cowboys Money line: -230
Total: 53.5
My Pick: Detroit Lions +6 / Over 53.5
Dallas has gone over at home in seven of their last eight games, scoring at least 30 during that span. Detroit is averaging 30.5 points when indoors, favoring the over. The public agrees. 56% are taking the over in this one right now.
The public is split, taking Detroit money line 63% of the time, but Dallas to cover 60% of the time. Dallas has been great at home, give me Dallas money line. I am taking Detroit to cover and the over in this one.
Sunday, December 31st
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Dolphins Money line: +142
Ravens Money line: -168
Total: 47.5
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 / Over 47.5
Baltimore has the best record against the spread in the league (12-3). Miami is 10-5 against the spread and 2-1 as road underdogs this year. The public is split, 50/50 right now on the spreads.
Right now, 59% are taking the Dolphins money line, and 67% are taking the over. This game could have some fireworks, if Tyreek plays I am smashing the over in this one. Baltimore looked dominant against San Francisco. I would need more than three points to scare me off.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-12)
Patriots Money line: +590
Bills Money line: – 850
Total: 41
My Pick: New England Patriots +12 / Under 41
Buffalo has not dominated opponents this year when double-digit favorites are 0-6 in their last six. The public are loving under, 71% of the public are betting the under at 41 points.
They must have seen the trend. 63% are backing the Patriots to cover. The money line goes to the mafia, and 61% of the public is taking the Bill’s money line. I am tailing the public on this one. Give me the under, and give me New England to cover.
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-3.5)
Titans Money line: +180
Texans Money line: -215
Total: 42.5
My Pick: Houston Texans -3.5 / Over 42.5
The Titans have struggled on the road. They have failed to hit their team total in six of their last seven road games. Right now, the public likes the Titans’ money line 68% of the time. But 68% are taking Houston to cover, and with C.J. Stroud playing, I am as well. They like the over in this one.
62% of the public are putting their money on the over. Will Levis is supposed to return, and Derrick Henry is a monster in the winter. Give me the over, and give the Texans to cover.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Bears Money line: +134
Falcons Money line: -158
Total: 38
My Pick: Chicago Bears +3 / Over 38
Since 2021, the Falcons have been the worst team against the spread in the NFL. Arthur Smith has them 5-13-1 during that span against the spread. The public are wise to this, they are taking the Bears to cover 58% of the time. Bears’ money line is getting picked 57% of the time as well.
The under is popular, with 69% of the bets. Justin Fields might be auditioning for the Falcons. Give me the over in this one. D.J. Moore tore them up in the past. I will take the Bears to cover.
Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Raiders Money line: +148
Colts Money line: -176
Total: 44.5
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts -3 / Over 44.5
The Colts’ games have hit the over in 10 different games this season. Las Vegas has scored 83 points in the last two weeks. But, the public is hammering the under 76% of the time. Right now, 73% of bets are on the Raiders’ money line, and 52% are taking Las Vegas to cover. I am taking the over in this one.
Lucas Oil Stadium’s scoreboard has seen some high scores this year. Give me the Colts to cover in this one. Michael Pittman should be back.
Carolina Panthers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Panthers Money line: +210
Jaguars Money line: -155
Total: 38
My Pick: Jacksonville -7 / Over 38
Jacksonville has been better on the road than at home under Doug Pederson. They are 4-12 against the spread at home in their last 16 home games. Trevor Lawrence has been really bad this year, and the injuries continue to pile up.
Lawrence’s status is something to watch, but he has played hurt and likely does again. Carolina has gotten beat by the spread and straight up almost weekly. I am taking that to continue and the over.
Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5)
Cardinals Money line: +460
Eagles Money line: -620
Total: 48
My Pick: Arizona 10.5/ Under 48
These teams both tend to start hot, 20-8-2 against the first-half spreads combined. Right now, 53% of the public is betting on the Eagles to cover and 77% on the Eagles’ money line. The over is slightly favored, 54% of the public are betting on this game to go over 48 points.
That would put the implied points for the Eagles at 27 points and Arizona at 16.5. Philly is scoring 21.0 in their last three games and Arizona 18.3. Give me the under, and give me Arizona to cover.
Los Angeles Rams (-6) at New York Giants
Rams Money line: -240
Giants Money line: +198
Total: 42
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams -6 / Over 42
The Rams are 4-0 against the spread in December, while the Giants have lost two straight games. The public loves the over in this one, 93% of the public are taking the over at 42. Los Angeles is getting 57% of their money to cover, and 77% of people are taking the Rams’ money line.
New York has struggled as of late without Dexter Lawrence and after trading Leonard Williams. This is a tall order, I am taking Los Angeles to cover and the over.
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
Saints Money line: +116
Buccaneers Money line: -136
Total: 42
My Pick: Tampa Bay -3 / Over
Vegas has had New Orleans’ number this year. They are 4-10-1 against the spread this year. New Orleans has been heavy on the under, but 24.7 points per game in their last three has me thinking over 42.
Tampa Bay has been lighting up the score boards on the back of big plays. Baker is playing great, and so is this offense. Right now, the public is split 50/50 on the money, and 61% are taking the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to cover.
They are taking the under 60% of the time. I am not. Give me the over in this one with the way both offenses are playing and both defenses. Tampa Bay’s defense has been letting up big plays and a lot of points.
I do like Tampa Bay to take this one and cover. This should be a fun game with divisional and playoff implications.
San Francisco 49ers (-13.5) at Washington Commanders
49ers Money line: -800
Commanders Money line: -560
Total: 48.5
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers -13.5 / Over
San Francisco got humbled last week, and the health of their offensive line is something to watch. But they have won by 16 or more points eight times this year. Washington’s defense is allowing almost 35 points a game!
The public is betting the under 59% of the time. I am not. Right now, 71% of the public is betting on the 49er’s money line, and 80% for them to cover. San Francisco bounces back, give me the over and give them the points!
Pittsburgh Steelers at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Steelers Money line: +144
Seahawks Money line: -172
Total: 41.5
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks Money Line / Over 41.5
Pittsburgh’s offense tends to lead to unders, especially in the second half. They have only gone over in the second half in three of their last 15 games. Right now, the public is betting on the Seahawks’ money line 78% of the time and 59% of their coverage.
Pittsburgh is expecting to ride with Rudolph again, and Seattle has won two straight. Give me the Seahawks, and give me the under on this one.
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
Bengals Money line: +270
Chiefs Money line: -335
Total: 44.5
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7/ Over 44.5
Kansas City has failed to hit their over in seven of their last eight home games. Ja’Marr Chase is expected to miss. The under is looking really good in this one. The Bengals have been a thorn in Kansas City’s side the last few seasons.
Joe Burrow won’t be there at Burrowhead this weekend, and Jake Browning is coming off of a four-interception game. This Kansas City defense is for real, I am sticking with the Chiefs to get it right.
Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
Chargers Money line: +156
Broncos Money line: -186
Total: 38.5
My Pick: Denver Broncos’ Money Line / Over 38.5
Denver through a curveball by benching Russell Wilson. Jarrett Stidham played well against both San Francisco and Kansas City last year, putting up five touchdowns in two games. Keenan Allen might be active, and Easton Stick was much more effective with more time for preparation.
Right now, the public has the Chargers covering 52% of the time, and the Broncos’ money line is getting 93% of the public’s bets. The public is taking over 67% of the time, and so am I. I am tailing all three bets. Give me the Broncos’ money line and the over.
Monday, January 1st
Green Bay Packers (-2) @ Minnesota Vikings
Packers Money line: -106
Vikings Money line: -110
Total: 46
My Pick: Packers -2 / Over 46
Green Bay is 1-3 against the spread this season. Minnesota is making a quarterback change, going back to Jaren Hall. Right now, 66% are taking Green Bay to cover, and 79% are on the money line.
The public loves the over in this one. 75% are taking the over. We could see that line move, I am taking the under with the new of Jaren Hall at quarterback. Give me the Packers -2 in this one, money line, if you want to play it safer.
