The professional golf world is aflame. But the one shining beacon in the 2024 world of professional golf will be the majors. And it’s never too early to start preparing to make your bets for it. The second major of the year will take place at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, KY, for the 2024 PGA Championship.
With odds out on every major sports book in America, it’s never too early to start making early picks and predictions. Here’s an early preview and picks for the 2024 PGA Championship.
Early 2024 PGA Championship Picks and Preview
Past Champions
- 2023: Brooks Koepka
- 2022: Justin Thomas
- 2021: Phil Mickelson
- 2020: Collin Morikawa
- 2019: Brooks Koepka
LIV Golfers Expected In Field
- Brooks Koepka
- Phil Mickelson
- Martin Kaymer
- Dustin Johnson
- Jon Rahm
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Cameron Smith
Given the rampant rumors of top players being courted to leave the PGA Tour and join LIV, expect this list to grow between now and then. In addition, the PGA of American reserves the right to invite high-level performers from the world of golf. Last year, several members of LIV were granted invitations. Expect players like Talor Gooch, Joaquin Niemann, Patrick Reed, and Mito Pereira to get invitations.
The Golf Course
Here are some key facts about Valhalla Golf Club:
Opened: 1986
Architects: Jack Nicklaus
Other Majors/Events Hosted
- 1996 PGA Championship (won by Mark Brooks)
- 2000 PGA Championship (won by Tiger Woods)
- 2008 Ryder Cup (won by USA 16.5-11.5)
- 2014 PGA Championship (won by Rory McIlroy)
Par: 71
Estimated Yards: 7,635 Yards
Since the 2014 PGA Championship, the golf course has added a few new tee boxes to extend the length of the golf course. Per examination of the Google Earth overhead views, here’s where they are and an estimate of how much longer it will play in 2024:
1st Hole – “The Post”
- 2014: 446 Yards
- 2024 (est.): 500 Yards
12th Hole – “Sting Like a Bee”
- 2014: 467 Yards
- 2024 (est.) 490 Yards
13th Hole – “The Limestone Hole”
- 2014: 350 Yards
- 2024 (est.): 360 Yards
14th Hole – “On the Rocks”
- 2014: 217 Yards
- 2024 (est.): 250 Yards
18th Hole – “Photo Finish”
- 2014: 542
- 2024: 575
Agronomy:
- Greens: Bentgrass
- Fairways: Zeon Zoysia
- Rough: Kentucky Bluegrass/Ryegrass (est. 4″)
The only agronomy change from the 2014 PGA Championship is the grass in the fairway. The club switched from a bentgrass to zoysia. The hope is, assuming the weather cooperates, that the zoysia will create a firmer and faster track.
Considering the buckets of rain the course received in 2014 that allowed tee shots to splat as soon as they landed in the fairway, any promotion of firm and fast conditions would be a bonus to those looking for more difficult conditions. The soft turf conditions in 2014 was a reason why the field driving accuracy rate that week was 65% despite the narrow fairways at Valhalla.
Here are some other venues that featured Zoysia fairways:
- East Lake GC (Tour Championship)
- TPC Southwind (FedEx St. Jude)
- TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson)
- Trinity Forest (Byron Nelson)
- Bellerive Country Club (2018 PGA Championship)
- Kasumigaseki (2021 Olympics)
- Narashino CC (ZOZO Championship)
Zoysia can act as a bit of a bouncy turf when playing firm. It also can let the ball sit up a bit on the fairway, making crisp ball-first contact quite easy to do.
Next, here is the layout of Valhalla Golf Club (per Google Earth imagery):
Front Nine
There are some positives about Valhalla Golf Club. It’s a very pretty piece of property. The golf course winds its way around Floyd’s Fork down the front nine, followed by downhill away from the clubhouse on the back nine. The property is full of rolling hills that provide nice vistas and high viewing spots for the spectators in attendance.
But for those looking for a more cerebral test of golf full of choices and risk and reward, Valhalla won’t be for you. Jack Nicklaus golf courses tend to have a target golf stereotype. Valhalla is no exception.
There are very little decisions or choices one must make off the tee and into greens. The golf course shows you where you need to hit it. Then it comes down to executing. A quintessential “pass/fail” examination seen at other PGA Championship venues like Oak Hill, Bethpage Black, Harding Park and Bellerive.
And other than some lengthening and an agronomy change, the golf course by and large is the exact same as the one seen in 2014. The greens have not been renovated. Fairway bunkers are in the exact same spots as they were in 2014.
And the mowing patterns of the fairways will be the same too. Other than a change in weather conditions, what you saw in 2014 is what you’ll probably get in 2024.
Nevertheless, Valhalla lives in lore for golf fans because of Tiger Woods’ dramatic victory over Bob May in a playoff in 2000. Tiger chasing the golf ball into the hole on No. 16 is one of the most iconic highlights in golf history:
The legend of Tiger Woods’ courageous and triumphant win over Bob May, a first-ballot inductee into the Mule Hall of Fame, will no doubt be referenced (ad nauseum) during the week (along with Southern Hospitality, Horse Racing, Bourbon, and all other things Louisville).
Betting Strategies
While golf has changed over 10 years, there are some clues to how the 2014 PGA Championship played at Valhalla that is valuable intel for what to expect at the 2024 PGA Championship.
Off the Tee
As discussed above, the tee shots at Valhalla don’t offer options for how to play it. Every player in the field will pull driver on the holes that ask that club to be hit. Every player will lay up off the tee on the holes that ask for it. And there won’t be any opportunities for players to try and take on more risk by trying to carry bunkers or cut dog legs. The landing spot for each tee shot is clearly defined on every hole.
I’ll give more examples when we revisit this topic in May, but let’s apply this concept to Hole No. 7, misleadingly known as “Genuine Risk” (also the name of the 1980 winning Kentucky Derby horse):
This hole is designed to give someone options off the tee. Those who want to play it safe can send their tee shot down the right fairway with the tradeoff of making the hole longer. But for those who want to be bold, they can try and hit a small, thumbprint fairway over on the left to set up a shorter approach shot into the green overwater. Hence, “Genuine Risk”.
The problem, however, is that the locations of the tee boxes dictate where players should hit the ball. The forward tees (designed for mid to higher handicaps) are all located on the right side of the hole. There is absolutely no chance any of them would crisscross the hole back over to the left towards the “riskier” fairway.
Conversely, the tee boxes for better amateurs and amateurs are located on the left side of the hole. At that point, aiming their tee shot down the right side makes no sense.
For one, it’s not even that safe. They’d have to carry a string of bunkers on the left side of the fairway. And water remains in play for them should they hook their tee shot a bit.
Instead, they’ll hit it towards the “riskier” left fairway, which is located directly in front of them on the tee box. That’s what everyone did in 2014. And with such soft conditions, the small, narrow left fairway played much wider because the ball would stop as soon as it hit the ground.
Also, given the additions in length over the last 10 years in golf, driver is now probably too much for the professionals. From the back tees, the run out at the end of the left fairway is about 320 yards.
That’s the carry distance of many players in today’s game. And if the fairway is running firm, the ball can certainly roll into the rough. We’ll probably see a lot more fairway metals and driving irons off the tee on No. 7 in 2024.
My point is that there is no true “risk” in the hole. Because whichever tee box one chooses defines how you play the hole. Better players will always play down the left side. Worse players will always play down the right side.
In any event, there will be a homogeny in strategy off the tee at the 2024 PGA Championship. Even on the Par 4’s and 5’s they lengthened for the 2024 PGA Championship, players will still opt for the same club selections as they did in 2014. And the short Par 4’s under 400 yards, for the most part, force a layup.
What were those club selections? I summarized the club selections off the tee on all the Par 4’s and 5’s from Rickie Fowler and Rory McIlroy’s final rounds at the 2014 PGA Championship from the videos below:
Rory McIlroy
- Driver: 9 times (#’s 1, 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 16, 17, 18)
- Less Than Driver: 5 times (#’s 4, 6, 9, 12, 13)
Rickie Fowler
- Driver: 9 times (on the same holes Rory did).
- Less Than Driver: 5 times (on the same holes Rory did)
Both Rory and Rickie choose the exact same club off the tee on the same holes. And given the hundreds of sand-filled divots their tee shots had to avoid when the ball landed, it’s safe to assume everyone else in the field had the same strategies, too.
There might be some subtle changes to club selection off the tee in 2024. As previously discussed, driver is probably now too much on the Par 5 7th.
And given how far players can carry it off the tee, we’ll probably see some longer hitters try to fly it into one of the greenside bunkers on the short Par 4 4th. But otherwise, what you saw in 2014 off the tee is what you’ll get in 2024. And we’ll be seeing the same tee shots from every player on each hole over and over and over during the course of the week.
As such, because this golf course tells you exactly what you need to do off the tee and there will be no variety in club choice strategy from player to player, picking elite drivers will be a good bet for the 2024 PGA Championship.
Those who drive it exceptionally well at Valhalla will have a huge edge on the field. The best way for gamblers to find those players is to target the best players in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee ahead of the championship.
Approach Play
Because of the lack of choices off-the-tee, the field will hit approach shots from roughly the same spots on each hole. Based on the videos above, as well as accounting for the increased length on certain holes, here are the estimated proximity ranges one will hit into the greens at the 2024 PGA Championship:
Specific Ranges:
- < 100 Yards: 11.1% (2 shots)
- 100-125 Yards: 5.6% (1 shot)
- 125-150 Yards: 5.6% (1 shot)
- 150-175 Yards: 16.7% (3 shots)
- 175-200 Yards: 16.7% (3 shots)
- 200-225 Yards: 22.2% (4 shots)
- 225-250 Yards: 5.6% (1 shot)
- 250+ Yards: 16.7% (3 shots)
Overall:
- <150 Yards: 22.2% (lower than PGA Tour average)
- 150-200 Yards: 33.3% (slightly lower than PGA Tour average)
- 200+ Yards: 44.5% (much higher than PGA Tour average)
Nearly half of one’s approach shots at the 2024 PGA Championship are expected to come from over 200 yards. 11 of 18 will come from over 175 yards.
As such, they heavily favor players more skilled with longer approach shots. While certain key scoreable holes like Hole No. 4 and 13 will require precise wedge play to ensure a birdie, the 2024 PGA Championship will be won from long range.
Around the Green & Putting
In 2014, misses long or to the sides likely found thick ryegrass rough. There are some false fronts where the ball can roll back toward the player on approach shots that are short. But unlike the next major championship venue that will be played in 2024, don’t expect a lot of variety in the types of chip shots played for missed greens.
The PGA could elect to shave down some areas around the green to promote more chip shots off tight lies. But as of right now, that is pure speculation.
In terms of the greens themselves, there doesn’t seem to be too much complexity. The green complexes don’t seem much different from those at other Jack Nicklaus designs or at events like the BMW Championship. They’ll run fairly quickly. There’s some undulation to them. But the tests the players faced on these greens don’t seem much different than others on the PGA Tour circuit.
Targeting good bentgrass putters will be advisable. And having a good short game at a long major championship setup is always a plus. But these two areas certainly lag behind the importance of driving and long approach play at the 2024 PGA Championship.
In-Tournament Success
2014 marks the oldest PGA Championship on DataGolf with strokes gained data. As such, here is how players separated themselves the most at the 2014 PGA Championship:
Players who excelled tee-to-green at the 2014 PGA Championship were better able to separate themselves from the field than the typical PGA Tour setup. Putting also took on a much lower importance on the week. The path towards success at Valhalla in 2014 also mimics the typical path towards success at all other PGA Championship setups.
This isn’t all that surprising. The PGA of America over the last few years has featured several venues that reward similar skill sets over the last 10 years. And because very little has changed at Valhalla since 2014, expect more of the same in 2024.
Summary
Nothing has materially changed Valhalla from 2014 to 2024. How players found success in 2014 is similar to paths to success at the typical PGA Championship setup. And there will be redundancy in club choice selections off the tee and into greens from player to player because of the lack of options Valhalla presents to the player.
As such, don’t expect many surprises at the 2024 PGA Championship. When a field of professionals takes on a long golf course that requires everyone to hit the same shots, the cream will naturally rise to the top. And because this golf course (and the PGA Championship in general) rewards strong tee-to-green game, expect a very chalky result to the 2024 PGA Championship. Don’t be too cute with your 2024 PGA Championship picks.
Early 2024 PGA Championship Picks
For those looking to place bets today, here are my early picks to win the 2024 PGA Championship (with best price available courtesy of Oddschecker):
Snap Pick – Jon Rahm 11/1
Let’s go over the checklist for what will be needed to win at Valhalla and compare that to what Jon Rahm excels at.
- Elite Driving – Check. Jon Rahm is one of the best drivers in the world.
- Elite Long Approach Play – Check. Jon Rahm is one of the leaders in strokes gained per shot from over 150 yards in the world.
- Success at Jack Nicklaus Designs – Check. Jon Rahm dominates Muirfield Village. He also played well at Sherwood Country Club when that venue hosted the 2021 ZOZO Championship.
- Ability to fade the golf ball – Check. Nicklaus courses favor fades. Every critical drive from Holes 15-18 at Valhalla favors a fade. Jon Rahm moves the ball from left to right as good as anyone. In contention on the most pressure-packed stretch of golf in the tournament, Jon Rahm will hit the driver with his favorite shot shape.
- Success on Bentgrass Greens – Check. Jon Rahm is one of the leaders in strokes gained per round on bentgrass greens on the PGA Tour.
Will the move to LIV Golf make him less sharp in 2024? It’s possible. But despite the doubters, LIV Golfers had tremendous success in majors in 2024 (including Brooks Koepka’s win at the 2023 PGA Championship).
Another concern with this pick is Jon Rahm’s potential frustration with the PGA of America. Given the more straightforward setups presented by the PGA of American, Rahm’s overall track record at the PGA Championship isn’t as good as it should be. But given the homogenous golf offered at Valhalla, backing one of the most complete players tee-to-green who’s had success at other Jack Nicklaus’ designs is an easy early pick to win the 2024 PGA Championship.
Value Pick – Max Homa 46/1
Max Homa has been a popular major championship pick for the last two years. Winning at Torrey Pines, Quail Hollow, and Riviera is often a precursor to major championship success. He has wins at all three. But despite those victories, his success in major championships leaves much to be desired.
But he finally put together four good rounds at the 2023 Open Championship to notch his first Top 10 at a major championship. And Homa possesses several qualities needed to do well at Valhalla. Max Homa is an excellent driver. He’s improved his approach shots from long range. He’s a good bentgrass putter. And hits a fade. And he’s done well at Muirfield Village (another Jack Nicklaus design) over the last 2 years.
The PGA Championship has been the site of breakout major champions. Max Homa could be the next one to do it. And considering his tremendous success at the golf courses played between January and May, there’s a chance this might be the best price available on Max Homa at Valhalla. He’s a great pick to bet now to win the 2024 PGA Championship.
Honorable Mention:
- Bryson DeChambeau – 36/1
- Will Zalatoris – 40/1
- Cameron Young – 50/1
Longshot Pick – Joaquin Niemann 80/1
As of today, Joaquin Niemann does not have an exemption into the PGA Championship. Unless he were to accumulate enough OWGR points between now and then to get inside the Top 50, he won’t qualify for an exemption.
However, the PGA of America does extend several invitations to fill out its field. This is the best chance for top-level LIV golfers who aren’t already exempt to earn an invite. And Joaquin Niemann certainly will get that invitation.
He’ll get that invitation because he remains one of the top young talents in the world. He didn’t have the strongest season on LIV in 2023, and that might have made people forget how truly special he is.
But after his victory at the Australian Open, where he played superbly in tough scoring conditions, Joaquin Niemann showed that he’s not a player to be forgotten.
At his best, Niemann has all the tools needed to do well at Valhalla. Niemann is an excellent driver. He’s a good long-iron player. He has a win on the bentgrass greens of The Greenbrier and, overall, is a good bentgrass putter. And he’s been good at other Jack Nicklaus designs.
Niemann doesn’t have a strong track record at major championships. But neither did Wyndham Clark and Brian Harman ahead of their surprising wins in 2023. Given the immense talent he has, Joaquin Niemann is fully capable of a ceiling performance over four days to capture an unexpected major championship win.
Honorable Mention:
- Nicolai Hojgaard – 100/1
- Keegan Bradley – 120/1
- Mito Pereira – 190/1
