The NFL regular season is almost over, and you only have a few more days to put in those Week 16 NFL Picks. We are going to look at some public betting trends and some NFL trends in this article. Let’s look at the information we have to help us make smarter bets. Make sure you are tuning in to the sportsgamblingpodcast.com YouTube channel and subscribing to our podcasts. Join the degen nation. Let it ride!
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Week 16 NFL Picks: Public and Season Long NFL Betting Trends
Home Teams: 56.2% (126-98)
Away Teams: 43.8% (98-126)
Favorites: 67.4% (151-73)
Underdogs: 32.6% (73-151)
Home Favorites: 69.3% (95-42)
Away Favorites: 64.4% (56-31)
Home Underdogs: 35.6% (31-56)
Away Underdogs: 30.7% (42-95)
Overs: 43.5% (97-126)
Unders: 56.5% (126-97)
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
New Orleans Saints at Los Angeles Rams (-4)
Saints Moneyline: +170
Rams Moneyline: -200
Total: 46.5
My Picks: Los Angeles Rams -4 / Over 46.5
This season the Rams are 10-1 against the spread. While New Orleans is struggling, 6-14-1 ATS. Right now, 61% of the public is taking the Rams’ moneyline. 85% of the public is betting on the Rams to cover.
They are smashing the over at 80% as well. I am, as well, and I am taking the Rams to cover. Matthew Stafford is playing well, and his weapons are finally healthy. Give me the Rams to cover and the over in this one.
Saturday Slate
Cincinnati Bengals (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers – 4:30 PM EST
Bengals Moneyline: -125
Steelers Moneyline: +105
Total: 39.5
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2 / Under 39.5
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in the holiday spirit, starting Mason Rudolph this weekend. Cincinnati is 0-4 outright and against the spread in the division this season.
They have also seen five of their last six games hit the over. As of now, 74% of the public is taking the under in this one. The public is backing the Bengals with 61% to cover and 68% on the moneyline.
Give me Jake Browning, sorry Rudolph!
Buffalo Bills (-12) at Los Angeles Chargers – 8:00 PM EST
Bills Moneyline: -800
Chargers Moneyline: +550
Total: 43.5
My Picks: Buffalo Bills -12 / Over 43.5
Buffalo has hit the over in only two of their last ten games. Now we get Easton Stick and the hot mess Chargers. Las Vegas put up 63 on Los Angeles last week.
Start your Buffalo Bills in fantasy. This game could have some fireworks based on how these offenses are playing. The public agrees that 54% are taking the over.
The Bills are getting 65% of the bets, but there is faith in LA to cover. Right now, 52% are taking the Chargers to cover.
I am not. Buffalo is starting to put things together.
Sunday 12/24 – 1:00 PM EST
Washington Commanders at New York Jets (-3)
Commanders Moneyline: +140
Jets Moneyline: -165
Total: 36.5
My Picks: Washington Commanders +3/ Under 36.5
The total opened at 38.5 and has already dropped two points. This is the 32nd-ranked Jets’ offense vs. the 32nd-ranked Commanders’ defense. It appears that Trevor Siemian will be starting with Zach Wilson in concussion protocol. New York has only covered the spread once in their last eight.
As of now, 88% of the public, including me, are on the under in this one. The public is 50/50 on the spread, and 51% are taking New York’s moneyline.
I just can’t bet on Trevor Siemian. Give me Washington in this one.
Green Bay Packers (-5) at Carolina Panthers
Packers Moneyline: -240
Panthers Moneyline: +200
Total: 36.5
My Picks: Green Bay Packers -5 / Over 36.5
The total opened at 38.5 and has already dropped two points. Carolina has gone under in all six home games this year. They are averaging 12.8 points per game, and their implied total is 15.5. Betting against Carolina is almost foolproof, except Arthur Smith made a fool.
This week better coaching and better quarterback play will prevail. Right now, 60% are taking the Packers moneyline, and 68% are on Green Bay to cover. The public is also heavy on the over, betting it 87% of the time.
I am tailing the public in this one. The Packers are a much better team.
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Lions Moneyline: -175
Vikings Moneyline: +150
Total: 46.5
My Picks: Detroit Lions -3.5 / Over 46.5
The Lions are some indoor cats, averaging 32.5 points per game indoors. Minnesota’s defense has been much better under Brian Flores, but they are still allowing points. This could be a shootout, and Nick Mullens’ turnovers could lead to a higher-scoring game. Right now, 56% of the public are on the over in this one.
The public has 61% of their money going towards Minnesota, but 84% are taking Detroit to cover. I am taking the over and taking Detroit, minus the points.
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Houston Texans
Browns Moneyline: -135
Texans Moneyline: +115
Total: 40.5
My Picks: Cleveland Browns 2.5 / Under 40.5
The total has already dropped 2 points since it opened. Cleveland has allowed at least 29 points on the road four times this year. But C.J. Stroud is trending toward not playing this week.
Right now, 52% of the public is taking the Cleveland moneyline. As of now, 77% are taking Houston to cover, and 69% are on the over.
Unless C.J. Stroud plays, I am fading the public in this one. Case Keenum vs. Cleveland, I will take Cleveland’s defense.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans
Seahawks Moneyline: -150
Titans Moneyline: +130
Total: 41.5
My Picks: Seattle Seahawks -2.5 / Under 41.5
The Titans are the worst team in the league against second-half spreads (4-10). It’s -1.5 for the second half if you are wondering. The public doesn’t expect much offense. 81% are taking the under in this one.
We might see Ryan Tannehill if Levis can’t play. Seattle’s moneyline is getting 85% of the money, but 55% is spent on Tennessee to cover.
Seattle is rolling. Geno Smith should be back. I am taking the Seattle Seahawks by a lot.
Indianapolis Colts at Atlanta Falcons (-1)
Colts Moneyline: +100
Falcons Moneyline: -120
Total: 44.5
My Picks: Indianapolis Colts +1 / Over 44.5
The Colts have gone over 11-3 for their team totals, the best in the league. They are becoming one of the best offenses in football. Indy gets Jonathan Taylor back, but they might be without Michael Pittman Jr. Their implied points total is 21.5. They would have gone over in seven of their last eight.
The public is taking the over 57% of the time, and they like the Falcons. Atlanta will have a quarterback switch, back to Taylor Heinicke.
Public betters are taking Atlanta’s moneyline 52% of the time and over 67% of the time. Michael Pittman’s status looms large in this one.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Jaguars Moneyline: -105
Buccaneers Moneyline: +115
Total: 42.5
My Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars +1 / Over 42.5
The Jaguars were dubbed the road warriors last year. That trend has continued. They are 9-1 against the spread on the road in their last 10. Tampa Bay has won three straight games. This explains the tight spread. Right now, the public is taking Jacksonville to cover 60% of the time.
They are taking the Tampa Bay moneyline 67% of the time and the over 88% of the time. I’m taking Jacksonville straight up to win this one, and give me the over.
Sunday 4:25 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Cowboys Moneyline: +100
Dolphins Moneyline: -120
Total: 51.5
My Picks: Dallas Cowboys +1.5 / Over 51.5
The “Fraud Bowl,” as many are calling it. These teams have been beating up on really bad teams but struggle against good teams. Tyreek Hill’s status will weigh huge on this one. Dallas has bounced back well. They are 12-1 against the spread after a loss since 2021.
The public is taking over 62% of the time, and 53% are taking Miami minus the points. The money on the moneyline is going toward Dallas 72% of the time. Give me Dallas plus the points, moneyline, and the over in this one.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-4.5)
Cardinals Moneyline: +170
Bears Moneyline: -200
Total: 43.5
My Picks: Arizona Cardinals +4.5 / Over 43.5
Arizona has gone under in six of their last seven games on the road. They have gone over their team-implied total in every home game. Chicago has gone under in six of their last seven games. Right now, 63% of the public is taking the Cardinals to cover in this one.
Chicago’s moneyline is getting 56% of the public’s money, and 79% are taking over. Give me Arizona to cover, and give me the over in this one.
Sunday 8:15 PM EST
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (-6.5)
Patriots Moneyline: +250
Broncos Moneyline: -300
Total: 34.5
My Picks: Denver Broncos -6.5 / Under 34.5
The spread has beaten New England at the same rate as NFL teams. They are 3-14-1 against the spread in their last 18 games. Denver is getting 82% of the public’s money to cover this one.
This is their first home game following a three-game road trip. The under is getting 78% of the bets, and Denver’s moneyline is getting 78% of the bets. Fading New England has been safe money this year. I am doing it again.
Christmas Day Slate
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-10) – 1:00 PM EST
Raiders Moneyline: +400
Chiefs Moneyline: 525
Total: 41.5
My Picks: Las Vegas Raiders +10/ Over 41.5
The Raiders put up 63 points and embarrassed the Chargers last week. They still find themselves as 10-point dogs this week. Kansas City loves playing Las Vegas, averaging 35.5 during the Mahomes era. Kansas City’s moneyline is getting 66% of the public’s bets and 60% for KC to cover.
The over is getting hit only 18% of the time. I think this game is a little closer, I am still taking the over, but I am taking the Raiders to cover in this one.
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-12) – 4:30 PM EST
Eagles Moneyline: +500
Giants Moneyline: -700
Total: 42.5
My Picks: New York Giants +12 / Under 42.5
The Eagles have dominated the Giants, winning by 24 or more in three of their last four games. New York was back on track, but last week they regressed last week against New Orleans. Philly has lost three straight. They are happy to see New York on the schedule.
The public is very confident in this one. Philly moneyline is getting 90% of their money, and 83% are putting money on Philadelphia covering.
Right now, 88% of public bets are on the under in this one. The Eagles have lost three straight. I am taking the juice and Tommy Cutlets to cover.
Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers (-5.5) – 8:15 PM EST
Ravens Moneyline: +195
49ers Moneyline: -230
Total: 46.5
My Picks: San Francisco 49ers -5.5 / Over 46.5
Baltimore has not found themselves in this position much this season. This could be a Super Bowl preview, and Baltimore is disrespected by the opening six-point line. San Francisco has had a tough schedule, and they have wiped the floor with their opponents. I expect that to happen again.
They are by far the best team in football, and Baltimore might be the second. The public loves the over in this one. 92% of bets are headed that way. Right now, 52% are taking the 49ers to cover and 67% are on the 49ers moneyline.
I bet on both teams each week and win. This one is tough. Give me San Francisco, and give me the over to wrap up my Week 16 NFL Picks! Merry Christmas!
