Week 15 is already here, and we are down about 15 starting quarterbacks. We have seen NFL offenses scoring fewer touchdowns and total points. Unders are hitting at a high rate. It has created some chaos, and last week, we saw eight different NFL upsets. Even Vegas is struggling to predict some of these games with all of the backup quarterback play. Before making our Week 15 NFL Picks, we will look at public and NFL betting trends to make smart bets.
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Week 15 NFL Picks: Public and NFL Betting Trends
NFL Betting Trends:
Home Teams: 44.7% (115-93)
Away Teams: 55.3% (93-115)
Favorites: 66.8% (139-69)
Underdog: 33.2% (69-139)
Overs: 43.5% (90-117)
Unders: 56.5% (117-90)
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Chargers Money Line: +140
Raiders Money Line: -154
Total: 33.5
My Pick: Las Vegas Raiders -3 / Under 33.5
This will be the first game without Justin Herbert, and that is something to consider. Los Angeles has gone under in 10 of their last 11 with Herbert. Las Vegas has one over in the last six games.
Maybe that explains the 33.5 total and why 75% are putting money on the under. Public betters do not have much faith in Easton stick with 73% betting on Raiders to cover and 81% on their money line.
A lot of the same narratives last week, and we had some surprising offense. I am not worried about that happening again with these teams and these quarterbacks. Look for both teams to rely on the running game and shorten this game up.
The Chargers will also be without Keenan Allen, the only bright spot on their offense this year. Give me the under, the Raiders money line, and the Raiders to cover.
Saturday at 1:00 PM EST
Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
Vikings Money Line: +148
Bengals Money Line: -160
Total: 39
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -3 / Under 39
Minnesota is playing tough on the road. They have only lost one of their last six against the spread when playing on the road. The Vikings are starting their 4th different starting quarterback.
Last week, their offense was atrocious, and they won 3-0. While Bengals are on a two-game winning streak under Jake Browning, scoring 34 points in back-to-back weeks. The public likes the under in this one, with 76% of bets taking the under.
Right now, 86% are betting on the Bengals money line. While 73% of bets are taking the Vikings to cover. Minnesota may also be without Justin Jefferson, who left the game with a rib injury last week.
Jake Browning and the Bengals are getting my money. Give me the under and the Bengals in this one. Minnesota’s quarterback roulette is too much. Even with their defense playing well, their offense is a mess, and the offensive line is as well.
Saturday at 4:30 PM EST
Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
Steelers Moneyline: +124
Colts Moneyline: -125
Total: 42
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts – 1.5 / Under 42.5
The over has hit in six of the last seven games at Lucas Oil Stadium. But Pittsburgh has gone under in 76% of their games this season. They have not scored more than 18 points in four straight games. I love the pace of play with Indianapolis, but I am not going with the over at this number. The public disagrees. 60% of bets are going over 42.
Right now, 53% are taking the Colts to cover, and 59% are on the money line. I am taking the Colts as well, money line, and to cover. Indianapolis is playing well on both sides of the ball. Gardner Minshew and the passing attack have been putting up points. The Colts have put up 48 points in their last two games. They have failed to hit 20 points only once this season.
Saturday at 8:15 PM EST
Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions (-4)
Broncos Money Line: +185
Lions Money Line: -198
Total: 46.5
My Pick: Denver Broncos +4 / Under 46.5
The Detroit Lions were one of the best bets in the first half of the year. Denver was the complete opposite unless you were betting against them. The Broncos are trending up, while Detroit is trending down.
Detroit has won four of their last five at home, while Denver has only lost one of their last seven straight up. Russell Wilson is playing very well and protecting the ball. Jared Goff is not doing either of those things. I am taking the Broncos to cover!
Sean Payton has done a phenomenal job turning this team around. Their defense has allowed over 20 points in only three of their last 8 games, a max of 22 points.
Detroit has lost two of their last three games. I am taking the team playing better defense and winning now. Give me Denver to cover, and give me the under in this one.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Chicago Bears at Cleveland Browns (-3)
Bears Money Line: +154
Browns Money Line: -165
Total: 38
My Pick: Cleveland Browns -3 / Under 38
The total has gone under in five of the last six games for Chicago. Cleveland’s defense has allowed an average of 30+ points in their last three games. One of these things has to give.
I love the matchup here with Cleveland’s defensive line vs. Chicago’s offensive line. Give me Cleveland to cover with new signal caller Joe Flacco. The public disagrees. They have the Bears covering 69% of the time. Cleveland’s money line is getting 64% of bets.
Chicago had an impressive win last week against Detroit. Montez Sweat is making an impact on defense, and Justin Fields’ legs were a huge difference.
D.J. Moore showed up big in this one. But, the Browns corners and defense in general are going to give this passing attack problems. The pass rush for Cleveland will be the difference. Give me Cleveland.
Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers
Falcons Money Line: -162
Panthers Money Line: +340
Total: 35
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons -3 / Under 35
Right now, 93% of bets are on the Falcons’ money line, and 79% are taking them to cover. I think we all know that betting against Carolina is the way to go.
Three points is just not enough to make me think about them. Atlanta is 4-1 in their last five against the spread vs. Carolina. Panthers’ games have gone under in six of their last seven games. I am taking that, and 90% of the public are also betting under 35 in this one.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-8.5)
Jets Money Line: +340
Dolphins Money Line: -400
Total: 40
My Pick: Miami Dolphins Money Line / Over 40
The last time these teams played, they scored 47 points, and Miami won 34-13. This was with Tim Boyle. Zach Wilson is back behind center.
New York’s offense exploded last week, but they have gone under in six of their last eight. Miami has beaten the Jets five straight at home. Right now, 82% of the public are taking the under in this one. The public is on the Miami money line 75% of the time, but at 8.5, 59% are taking New York to cover.
I am playing at safe in this one and taking the money line for Miami. But, I am going with the over in this one. Miami is averaging 31.6 points a game themselves. I would like the spread if it was 5.5 or 6.5, keep an eye on this one.
Also, keep an eye on the weather this time of year. If this game were to be cold, wet, and windy, I would move to the under and the Jets to cover. Tua’s arm strength in bad weather could be an issue.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)
Texans Money Line: +124
Titans Money Line: -142
Total: 37.5
My Pick: Tennessee Titans -2.5 / Over 37.5
As of now, we don’t know if C.J. Stroud will be able to play. But Stroud is likely to miss due to his concussion from last week. Will Levis and the Titans are coming off a big win against Miami.
It will be fun to see Hopkins vs. Stingley in this one. Tennessee’s games tend to go under: 14 of their last 19 have. We have seen Davis Mills, but we have not seen him in this offense. Right now, 74% of the public are taking the under in this one.
If C.J. were to play, the total could go much higher, and the public could change. I have some more faith in Mills, and I am taking the over in this one.
The public has no faith in Mills, with 86% taking the Titans’ money line and 74% taking Tennessee to cover. I am riding with the public, but I am taking the over in this one.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-5.5)
Giants Money Line: +225
Saints Money Line: -245
Total: 37
My Pick: New York Giants + 5.5 / Under 37
The New York Giants and Tommy DeVito are dominating the headlines. Their public defeat of the Packers has all eyes on New York. It was the Giants’ defense that kept the Packers out of the end zone that made the difference last week.
Derek Carr is one of the worst goal-line quarterbacks in the league. Expect some turnovers and defense in this one. The public is split 50/50 on the total this week.
They agree on New York covering. 54% of bets are on the Giants to cover. The money line is leaning with New Orleans 64% of the time. Give me the Giants’ money line at +225 as well.
New York has won three straight under Tommy Devito, and the defense is playing well. Andrew Thomas’ the star left tackle, has returned and has transformed this offense line. Go, Big Blue!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Buccaneers Money Line: +154
Packers Money Line: -170
Total: 42
My Pick: Green Bay Packers -3.5 / Over 42
Green Bay was rolling, but they ran into the red-hot Giants. Their inability to score in the red zone was the difference in this one. I don’t see that being an issue this week.
Tampa Bay’s defense is terrible against the pass, and their red zone defense is just as bad. I love the over in this game. Green Bay has gone over in four of their last five games. The public is scared off. 65% are taking the under even with warmer weather for Green Bay in December.
The public is taking the Green Bay money line 76% of the time, and 74% are taking Green Bay to cover. I am with the majority here. Green Bay will get back on track this week, and they could get some help with Aaron Jones’ possible return.
The Packers have the better defense as well. Give me Green Bay at home in this one.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) at New England Patriots
Chiefs Money Line: -345
Patriots Money Line: +328
Total: 37.5
My Pick: Kansas City -7.5 / Under 37.5
The Chiefs lost in a controversial way, and the Patriots shocked everyone last week. This game is more exciting than we thought it was going to be two weeks ago. But I don’t think it is going to be great for New England. Kansas City has been playing well on defense, and this week against New England is perfect for a bounce-back.
Kansas City has won five of their last six straight up, and New England’s games have gone under in four of their last five. Right now, 83% of the public are taking the under.
I am also based on Kansas City’s offensive struggles and New England’s as well. The public is taking Kansas City to cover 55% of the time, but the money line is going 64% toward New England. Kansas City bounces back, give me Mahomes, and let New England have the points.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
San Francisco 49ers (-12.5) at Arizona Cardinals
49ers Money Line: -800
Cardinals Money Line: +600
Total: 48
My Pick: San Francisco -12.5 / Over
These teams have hit the over in four of their last five in Arizona. San Francisco has also won five in a row straight up. This is the largest spread this week, and it’s no surprise with how San Francisco is playing.
These teams went over 48 the last time they played, and Kyler was not on the field. I am taking the over in this one, but 54% of the public are taking the under. I am taking San Francisco to cover, and 62% of the public agrees.
The money line is 50/50 right now, with the current odds being so far apart.
Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Rams (-6)
Commanders Money Line: +250
Rams Money Line: -290
Total: 49
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams -6 / Over 49
This is another high total game that could lead to some fireworks. Los Angeles home games have gone under in four of the last five games. While Washington’s games have gone over in five of their last six. One of these things has to give. The public is betting the over 76% of the time and so am I. The public is taking Los Angeles to cover 86% of the time.
The money line bets are going the other way. 54% are taking the Washington money line. This is surprising based on how many are taking the Rams to cover. I am taking Los Angeles and their passing attack in this one. Give me Los Angeles -6 and the over in this one.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys at Buffalo Bills (-1.5)
Cowboys Money Line: +115
Bills Money Line: -122
Total: 49
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys +1.5 / Over 49
Dallas has won five in a row straight up and four of their last five against the spread. Buffalo is coming off of a big win against Kansas City. Bills’ games have gone under in five of their last six games.
The total points keep moving, right now 77% of money is going towards the over at 49. As for the winner, Buffalo -1.5 is getting 67% of the money, and 70% is on the Bills money line. Dallas is too hot, I am taking them to cover, and I am taking the over in this one.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Baltimore Ravens (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Ravens Money Line: -162
Jaguars Money Line: +150
Total: 43.5
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 / Over 43.5
Baltimore is one of the hottest teams in the league, and Jacksonville has lost two straight. I am surprised that Baltimore is not favored by more. Give me Baltimore -3. As of now, 70% of the public is in agreement with me, and 76% are taking the Ravens’ money line. The public is hammering the under, 83% of bets on the under.
Jacksonville has played well vs. Baltimore, 7-1 against the spread in their last seven. But Baltimore is 7-1 straight up in their last 8.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Eagles Money Line: -190
Seahawks Money Line: +170
Total: 47.5
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 / Under 47.5
Seattle has lost four straight games and might be without Geno again. Philadelphia -3.5 is my lock of the week. The battle of the trenches goes to Philly in a heavy way. Right now, 75% of bets are on the Eagles money line and 69% are on Philly to cover. The public is at a 50% split for the over and under.
I would like to see if Geno is playing before betting, but at 47.5, I am going with the under. Give me Eagles -3.5 and the under in this contest.
