The first step in a rebuild is admitting you need to rebuild. For some teams, it is obvious; for others, you might need someone to give you an intervention. That is what I am here for. At the end of the day, if you are not a contender, you are most likely ready for a rebuild. Once you admit that it is time to rebuild, you will really need to lean into it. I am going to talk about some do’s and don’ts for dynasty fantasy football rebuild.
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Rebuilding Your Dynasty: Tips for Rebuilding in Dynasty Fantasy Football
Step #1: acquire your own first if you do not have it. This should be your first move, and try to do it quietly. The minute that owner sees you selling pieces, the price will go up. Timing is everything, and if you are 3-9, you aren’t getting that first back. If you are 3-5 or 4-4, it’s attainable, so again, you do not want to wait around. You will, of course, be selling off depreciating assets, but what does that mean? Here are some positional age cliffs.
Quarterbacks
Quarterbacks do not carry much trade value in single-quarterback formats, but they can still be used as tradeable assets. Typically, the peak age is 33. Tom Brady is the exception and not the rule. At this age, most of your rushing quarterbacks are unable to rush at the same rate or have suffered an injury. But, even your traditional pocket-passers see a drop in production.
It is always better to be a year early than a year late for all positions. Older players are losing value, and one injury could really drop their value. Here are some current NFL quarterbacks over the age of 33: Aaron Rodgers (40), Kirk Cousins (35), Matthew Stafford (35), Russell Wilson (35), Geno Smith (33), Jimmy Garoppolo (32), Derek Carr (32)
Running Backs
This one is frustrating and takes time to get used to for redraft players when transitioning into dynasty. Todd Gurley is 29 years old, and Le’Veon Bell is only 31! In the NFL, running backs enter their prime in their rookie season. In the past 10 seasons, 85% of the top 12 finishes have come from running backs between the ages of 22 and 28. The majority of these players are between the ages of 23-26, over 65%. That means if you have a rebuild that is going to take two years, you will want to move those running backs that are 25 or older.
Just looking at the list, you can see the guys that you might be a year too late on selling, and you lose profit by doing that. This offseason was a great example. Look at Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Ezekiel Elliot’s value dips. Here are the top running backs at age 25 or older: Derrick Henry (29), Aaron Jones (28), Austin Ekeler (28), Alvin Kamara (28), James Conner (28), Joe Mixon (27), Christian McCaffrey (27), Tony Pollard (26), Saquan Barkley (26), David Montgomery (26).
Wide Receivers
Wide Receivers are usually in their prime between the ages of 23 and 30. This gives them much longer careers. This is something that you have to get used to when you are new to dynasty and why wide receivers go so early in startup drafts. The fun part is that there have been a lot of recent players that have produced early. You are not waiting 2-3 years for them to develop like you were in the past. The average age for the prime is around 27 and players that are in the 28-30 window will start losing value.
Here are some top wide receivers at 30 or older: Adam Thielen (33), Keenan Allen (31), DeAndre Hopkins (31), Davante Adams (31), Tyler Lockett (31), Cooper Kupp (30) and Stefon Diggs (30)
Tight Ends
Tight ends are really difficult because there are just so few of them. It is much easier to move on from a veteran wide receiver with the recent influx of talent. Tight Ends start to decline between the ages of 30 and 32, even the best ones. We saw it with Jimmy Graham and with Rob Gronkowski. We are starting to see a decline in Travis Kelce. His value will only go down from here.
Rob Gronkowski is the same age as healthy, and some people were taking Kelce. Here are some tight ends at age 30 or older: Travis Kelce (34), Zach Ertz (33), Darren Waller (31), Tyler Higbee (30), George Kittle (30)
Biggest Risers in Fantasy Football Heading Into Week 13: 📈
(Trade Targets and Breakouts)
— Snoog’s Dynasty Society (@FFSnoog) November 27, 2023
Do’s
Initiate Contact – Do not just randomly start throwing guys on the trade block and expect people to come running into your DMs. Look at the standings, see who the contenders are, and go message them.
Move in Silence – The last thing you want is competitors. If you are selling a product, the last thing you want is a store to pop up across the street selling the same thing. There is a limited market of buyers, and you want to be the first one to reach out to the buyers.
Maximize Value – Getting a 3rd or a taxi player added to every deal really adds up. Trading back, turning one first into two and two into four firsts. Most rebuilds will take 2-3 years. Spreading out the haul can help you compound the value.
Be active and do the work for them – Look at the four or six contenders and evaluate the needs of the buyer and what would help them. Team 1 and 3 need a quarterback. Talk to them about a quarterback. Team 2 and 5 need a running back. Going to talk to them about a running back. Of course, see if they need anything else while they are buying.
Be creative – If a player is worth a 2nd, see if you can move a 2nd and that player for a 1st. This helps you move up the board, and on draft day, you can make the decision to trade back. Trade away your FAAB for picks if there is a juicy one-year rental, or use your FAAB to get the player.
Do your homework – There are a lot of great tools out there to make this easier for you and your trade partner. Make this easy for them by knowing your values, knowing what you want, and understanding values. A late 1st and an early 1st have very different values; do not just take a 1st or 2nd without trying to get the pick with better value.
Don’ts
Don’t burn bridges with bad offers – Every league has that guy, and if your league doesn’t, you are probably that guy. Going back to customer service, treat this like a business relationship. If you know that this guy is always trying to rip you off, you won’t like to deal with him. There are only so many customers, don’t blacklist yourself.
Don’t take the first offer – If someone sends you an offer, they are most likely willing to pay more. They might not be willing to pay double, but it doesn’t hurt to ask for a little more. Don’t get greedy or start sending trade calculator screenshots, but asking for a little extra is okay. I have someone else interested. Is that your best offer?
Don’t sell injured players – You do not sell players coming off of a bad week; never sell a player at their lowest point. Hold until there is a big week that opens up a sell window and take advantage.
Don’t package all of your assets together – Most of the time, you can get more for the individual parts, than making one big move. You only have so many pieces to sell. Selling that one at a time will maximize your profits. Unless a team has a ton of draft capital and young players, you will lose profit.
Don’t wait too long – I will discuss the age of apex and peak value for positions later on, but don’t wait too long. You have to sell something that people want to buy. The longer you wait, the less you get in return.
Don’t undervalue future 1st round picks – There will only be so many 2024 firsts available. 2025 firsts will be easier to attain. Ultimately, if you are rebuilding, it’s most likely not going to be a one-year plan.
