NFL Picks Week 12: NFL and Public Betting Trends for Each Game

NFL Picks Week 12: NFL and Public Betting Trends for Each Game

Week 12 of the NFL season has all sorts of chaos, starting with the schedule. We get three Thursday games and one black Friday game. The only thing better than Thanksgiving food is making money on football while eating it. That is the plan today. We are going to look at where the public is putting their money. Also, I will look at some NFL betting trends for each game. Here are my NFL Picks for Week 12!

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NFL Picks Week 12: NFL and Public Betting Trends for Each Game

This week, we get two new starting quarterbacks, possibly three. Bringing us to 50 different starting quarterbacks already. The year of the backup quarterback has made betting and fantasy football a little wild. But also gives us some clarity going into week 12, as some teams are heavily underhanded. With half of the league starting backups, we have some heavy favorites. Let’s look at this week’s slate and make of Week 12 NFL Picks.

 

NFL Betting Trends:
Home Teams: 94-70 (57.3%)
Away Teams: 70-94 (42.7%)
Favorites (SU): 109-55 (66.5%)
Underdog (SU): 55-109 (33.5%)
Favorites (ATS): 78-77-9 (50.3%)
Underdog (ATS): 77-78-9 (49.7%)
NFL Overs (Non-Overtime): 38.5%
NFL Unders (Non-Overtime): 61.5%

Thursday Games

Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-7.5)

Packers Moneyline: +290
Lions Moneyline: -360
Total: 46.5
My Pick: Detroit Lions -7.5/ Under

Detroit is 5-0 against the spread in their last five games and 7-1 straight up in their last 8 games. Green Bay has gone under all but one of their last six games. Currently, 65% of betters are taking the Lions -7.5, and 84% are putting it on the Lions moneyline. The over is getting bet on 64% of the time at 46.5, which opened at 45.5. I am taking the Lions to cover straight up, but I am taking the under.

Detroit is becoming a safe bet, and I am all in on the new Detroit Lions. But the NFL is hitting unders at over 60%. Detroit should be able to do their part, but Green Bay is without Aaron Jones. Green Bay is struggling in their post-Aaron Rodgers years. We have seen them without Aaron Jones. They are not the same.

Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys (-12.5)

Commanders Moneyline: +425
Cowboys Moneyline: -550
Total: 48.5
My Pick: Dallas Cowboys Moneyline/ Over

Dallas is 5-0 against the spread and straight up in their last five games. Washington is also covering the spread at a high rate. They are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven away games. The public is split. Only 49% are taking Dallas to cover. Dallas is getting 90% of the moneyline bets, and 70% are taking the total to go over that opened at 46.5. We could see a shootout, and in that case, I am taking the Cowboys. Taking the over and the moneyline.

San Francisco 49ers (-7) @ Seattle Seahawks

49ers Moneyline: -340
Seahawks Moneyline: +270
Total: 43.5
My Pick: San Francisco -7/ Over

Both teams are playing well straight up. Seattle is 7-1 at home in their last eight home games. While San Francisco is 7-3 in their last ten when away. The public is confident in San Francisco, 82% of their money is going to the 49ers -7. The moneyline is getting 89% of the bets, and 71% of the public is betting on the under. San Francisco is 2-0 since getting back Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel. They are rolling again. Give me San Francisco -7.

We have seen heavy regression for the Seahawks, and they are just overmatched here. Ken Walker and Tyler Lockett are banged up. This is one of the worst offensive lines vs. defensive line DVOAs of the week. San Francisco fans will have a Happy Thanksgiving as their team rolls. I am siding with the public with San Francisco, but I am taking the over in this one. Seattle will be forced to pass more and push the pace.

Friday at 3:00 PM EST

Miami Dolphins (-9) @ New York Jets

Dolphins Moneyline: -500
Jets Moneyline: +385
Total: 41.5
My Pick: Miami Dolphins -9/ Under

Jets games go under at a high rate. I am not sure if Miami is strong enough to buck this trend. New York has gone under in five straight and six of their last seven at home. The Miami Dolphins have cooled off a bit, but they are still one of the top offenses in the league. They will push the over, but I don’t think the Jets do enough to hit 41.5. This line opened at 42.5, and the public is taking the under 55% of the time.

The Jets are being spotted nine points, and the public is still taking the Dolphins 74% of the time. I am, as well. The public is also taking the Miami moneyline at a rate of 91%. Tim Boyle gets the start on a short week. The Jets are in trouble. This game has massive implications for the AFC playoff picture. New York is fighting for their lives, and Miami could take a two-game lead this weekend. Miami gets the Jets, Buffalo gets the Eagles.

Sunday at 1:00 PM EST

New York Giants @ New England Patriots (-3)

Giants Moneyline: +140
Patriots Moneyline: -165
Total: 33.5
My Pick: New York Giants +3/ Under

We have both teams trending towards the under. New England has gone over in only two of their last nine games. The Giants have only gone over once in their last five games. New England has yet to announce their starting quarterback, but we expect to see Mac Jones. We also expect a short leash for Jones. New York has Tommy DeVito, who turned up last Sunday against Washington. Gym, Tan, Laundry, and a lot of fist bumping for team Tommy.

Both of these offenses stink. The defenses aren’t too much better. The public right now is taking New York to cover 64% and New England moneyline 64%. Public betters are taking the under, but only 54% of the time. This could be a snooze fest. The line went from an ugly 34.5 to 33.5 already. I am taking the public’s side on this one. Giants to cover, Patriots moneyline, and give me the under.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

Buccaneers Moneyline: +115
Colts Moneyline: -135
Total: 43.5
My Pick: Colts Moneyline/ Over

We have competing trends. Tampa has gone under in seven of their last eight games. Indianapolis has gone over in five of their last six games at home. The public is split on this one as well, with 55% of betters taking Tampa Bay to cover and 56% on the Colts’ moneyline. The agreement is on the over. 79% of the money is on the over. This should be a fun game. I am taking the over in this one. Playing it safe with the Colts’ moneyline in this one.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (-1)

Saints Moneyline: -105
Flacons Moneyline: -115
Total: 42.5
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons -1/ Over

Both teams have been winning straight up, hence the close line. New Orleans is 6-1 straight up against Atlanta in their last seven. The total has gone under in 11 of the Falcon’s last 16 games. Taylor Heinicke injured his hamstring, and Derek Carr is in concussion protocol. This means Jameis Winston and Desmond Ridder are the likely starting quarterbacks in this one. Give me the over in this one.

Jameis has been known to put up points for both teams, but 69% of bets are taking the under. Atlanta is getting 68% of the public’s money to cover, and 66% is taking the moneyline. As much as I dislike Arthur Smith, Atlanta has been winning games. Bijan saw more usage in their last game, and we can only hope that is a sign of things to come. Atlanta tops the Saints to tie them at 5-6 atop of the NFC South.

Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5)

Panthers Moneyline:
Titans Moneyline:
Total: 36.5
My Pick: Tennessee Titans -3.5/ Over

These teams are both hitting the under a lot. The total has been under in four of their last five games for Carolina. Tennessee’s games have hit the under for the total in 11 of their last 14 games. Bryce Young vs. Will Levis, the public is backing Levis 64% of the time straight up, and 83% are on Tennessee’s moneyline. The total has already dropped from 37.5 to 36.5, and 86% of the money is on the under. They can have mine as well, plus Tennessee to cover.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals

Steelers Moneyline: -115
Bengals Moneyline: -105
Total: 34.5
My Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -1 / Under

This game has some significant changes that headline it. Joe Burrow is out for the season. Jake Browning takes over. Matt Canada has been fired (Steelers fans rejoice). Part of the reason he was fired, Pittsburgh has gone under in seven of their last eight games. The public likes the under a lot, with 83% of bets on the total going under. Pittsburgh is getting backed to cover 61% of the time, and 87% are taking the moneyline.

We have not seen the Steelers’ offense minus Matt Canada. Jake Browning is making his first start. This is a tough one to gauge. I am taking the Steelers, who have been winning ugly games. The team has been frustrated with Matt Canada. I am taking a bet on the players being energized on both sides of the ball by the move. Steelers to cover, but I am taking the under.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) @ Houston Texans

Jaguars Moneyline: -125
Texans Moneyline: +105
Total: 48.5
My Picks: Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 / Over  

Jacksonville coined the term road warriors last year. They are at it again. They have beaten the spread five in a row when playing away from home. These are a different group of Houston Texans than the team that has gone under in five of their last six when hosting the Jags. Both teams are playing hot right now. I am taking the over in a fun game, and 79% of betters agree. The moneyline is exactly 50/50 right now, but 61% are taking Houston to cover.

Jacksonville has been hot. They lost the one game against San Francisco. Give me the Jaguars who love the road, and give me the over in this one. The AFC South is full of young quarterbacks, and these are their two best. Stroud vs. Lawrence will be a fun one for the next decade. I am taking the Jaguars to cover and the total to go over.

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Sunday at 4:05 PM EST

Los Angelas Rams (-0.5) @ Arizona Cardinals

Rams Moneline: -110
Cardinals Moneyline: -110
Total: 44.5
My Pick: Los Angelas Rams -0.5 / Over

The Cardinals’ games have gone over in all but one of their last six games. Los Angeles has won all but one of their last five games straight up when playing the Cardinals. Kyler Murray and Matthew Stafford are both back. This should be a fun game. The public agrees. They have the over 44.5, taking 65% of the bets. Betters are backing Arizona, 56% are on the money line, and 51% to cover.

I like Los Angeles in this one, even if Kupp is banged up. Kyren Williams is likely to return, and he will bring a big boost to this offense. They have been one-handed with him out. This also has me on the over. I like both offenses and dislike both defenses.

Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)

Browns Moneyline:+105
Broncos Moneyline: -118
Total: 34.5
My Pick: Cleveland Browns Moneyline / Under

Cleveland games have gone over in five straight on the road. But Denver’s games have gone under in their last five straight. Denver is hot all of a sudden, and Cleveland just beat the Pittsburgh Steelers with Rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Things are clicking on both sides of the ball for Denver, and Cleveland’s defense might be the best in football. Everyone is in agreement that this game is going under. 96% of betters say so.

Denver is favored at home in this one, but 65% of betters are taking Cleveland to cover. As of now, 64% of betters are also taking the Cleveland moneyline. In DTR, they trust. More like in Myles Garrett, they trust. That guy should be a front-runner for MVP. Give me the Browns moneyline and the under.

Sunday at 4:25 PM EST

Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Bills Moneyline: +145
Eagles Moneyline: -170
Total: 48.5
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -3 / Over

Buffalo has gone under in all but one of their last six games might be why they fired their offensive coordinator. The Eagles have only lost one game straight up in their last nine games. Buffalo bounced back against the Jets, and Philadelphia just knocked off the champs. This should be a fun game, but 71% are confident in Philly’s moneyline. Right now, 63% are taking Philadelphia to cover, and 58% are on the over.

Both defenses are down some key pieces, and we could see some fireworks. I am tailing the public in this one with Philadelphia covering and their moneyline. I am taking the over as well. Buffalo will push the pace to keep up with Philadelphia. Their offense looked much better last week. We will see if that trend continues.

Kansas City Chiefs (-8) @ Las Vegas Raiders

Chiefs Moneyline: -425
Raiders Moneyline: +340
Total: 43.5
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -8 / Under

Both teams are coming off of tough losses. The Raiders saw their McDaniels streak come to an end. Kansas City lost in the Super Bowl rematch. Las Vegas games have gone over in only one of their last nine games. Chief’s games have gone under in five straight. Kansas City’s defense is better than their offense right now. I am taking the under in this one, but I do think Kansas City covers. Their defense is playing well and should stifle this Las Vegas offense.

Right now, public betters are taking the over 53% of the time. They are taking the Raiders to cover 64% of the time, and 53% are taking the Chiefs’ moneyline. Too much recent bias on here; the Chiefs’ moneyline is a safe bet. I am taking the Chiefs to cover in a bounce-back win. The Raiders have been little brothers for a long time. Look for the Chiefs to take out their frustrations on Vegas.

Sunday at 8:20 PM EST

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers

Ravens Moneyline: -185
Chargers Moneyline: +155
Total: 46.5
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens / Over

Baltimore is on fire right now, 5-1 straight up in their last six games. Their games have gone over the totals in four of their last five. Los Angeles has gone over in only one of their last eight games. Baltimore is red hot, and the Chargers need to fire their head coach. The Ravens have made me a ton of money this year, and I am going to continue to ride the hot hand.

Give me Baltimore -3.5 and the over in this one. Public betting has 61% Chargers to cover, and 64% are taking the under in this one. The public likes the under in this one. 64% of betters are taking it. I am going against the public in this one on both accounts. The moneyline has Baltimore winning 73% of the time, and that is a safe bet.

Monday at 8:15 PM EST

Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)

Bears Moneyline: +145
Vikings Moneyline: -170
Total: 43.5
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings -3.5 / Over

Chicago’s games have gone over the total in 75% of their last 12 games. Minnesota has beaten Chicago straight up in their last five and has beaten the spread in five straight. The Vikings’ winning streak fizzled out last week, but the team is still playing well. Josh Dobbs has the offense rolling, and the defense has been playing extremely well under Brian Flores. Chicago got Justin Fields back last week, and they barely beat Carolina.

Right now, 85% of betters like Chicago to cover, but 82% are on the Vikings’ moneyline. The total going under is a favorite pick. 86% of public bets are taking the under. I am going against the public here and taking the over and Vikings to cover. Minnesota’s coaching staff is the major difference in this one for me.

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