Torn on which way to lean on the games this special Thanksgiving week of football? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 12 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. Also, the NFL has three games on Thanksgiving and an additional one on Black Friday. Since we’re thankful for all of you, we’ve expanded this week to seven games! Could it be that the betting trends all point to favorites?
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! Last week’s article was missed, partially due to some fluky games. We finished 3-2, bringing our six-week record to 23-12, which is still winning us cash! Let’s get back on the right side of the trends and keep winning money. Happy Thanksgiving, and I hope we all win some cash!
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2023 NFL Week 12 Trends To Bet: NFL Betting Trends To Back
Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions (-7.5): NFC North Thanksgiving Showdown
The Packers and Lions are both coming off close wins. The Packers held off the Chargers at home, while the Lions probably should have lost to the Bears. The Lions have a solid lead on the division, but the Packers are looking to sneak into the playoffs with a wild-card spot. They’ve been improving the past couple of weeks. Let’s see what side the 2023 Week 12 trends to bet say we should follow.
As a Bears fan, I don’t want to cheer for either of these teams. I’m not sure which one winning is worse. However, the trends are fairly clear. The Lions are 9-1 against the spread (ATS) against the NFC North in the last 10 games. They’re 30-13-1 ATS with Campbell as their head coach and 28-12-1 with Goff as the quarterback. These two have been covering machines. The Lions are also 12-2-1 ATS when the line is more than 45 (it’s 47.5 right now) and 9-1 after a straight-up win against an NFC opponent. Finally, they’re 7-0 ATS in the second game of the season versus an opponent in the last seven games.
The Packers have looked better as of late, but this will be a tough game for them. They’re 2-8 ATS on the road in the last ten road games. They’re also 0-7 when revenging a loss against Detroit. Love hasn’t necessarily been a covering machine. He’s currently 2-5 ATS in the last seven games. The Packers also don’t play well against teams that just played the Bears. They’re 5-10 when playing teams coming off a game against Chicago.
The Pick: Lions -7.5 (I’d wait to see if it drops to 7 on Bet365)
Miami Dolphins (-10) @ New York Jets: Who Covers On NFL’s First Black Friday Game?
The Dolphins survived a scare against the surging Las Vegas Raiders. Coming off their bye, they looked a little lackadaisical. They still got the win and now have another double-digit spread to try and cover. Meanwhile, the Jets have benched Zach Wilson. They are turning to Tim Boyle as their starting quarterback after the Jets were blown out by the Bills. Are Wilson’s days done in New York? Does it matter when it comes to covering the spread? Here’s what the 2023 Week 12 trends to bet say about this game.
The Jets had such high expectations coming into the year. They’re now 4-6 and 4-5-1 ATS. The Jets struggle after playing the Bills. They are 1-13-1 ATS after playing Buffalo. They’re also 3-12 after a game with a turnover margin of -3 or worse. Starting Tim Boyle on a shorter rest is hard enough. It’s even worse when you factor in that the Jets are 0-7 ATS with less than six days of rest. The Sunday night to Friday transition has never happened before, so we’ll have to see how they fare.
The Dolphins, on the other hand, probably feel like last week’s game shouldn’t have been as close. They are 7-0 ATS against low-scoring teams. I don’t think anybody will argue the Jets are a low-scoring team. They’re also 7-0 ATS against teams with a losing record. Dolphins are also 6-0-1 against teams that are coming off a game against Buffalo. They’re 8-2 ATS against the AFC East in the last 10 and 8-2 ATS against the Jets in the last 10 against them. It’s another big spread, but I think they cover.
The Pick: Dolphins (-10)
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1) @ Houston Texans: Battle For First In AFC South
I don’t think anybody expected at Week 12 that this game would be for first place in the division. The Jaguars currently have a one-game lead over the Texans. However, if they drop this one, they will be tied for first. CJ Stroud has been playing lights out, but don’t sleep on Trevor Lawrence. The Jaguars have been a very good football team for the most part this year. Which team grasps the division according to the Week 12 trends to bet?
This could end up being the game of the week. The Texans don’t have a ton of strong trends against them, but there are some betting trends to follow. The Texans are currently 17-30-3 ATS against an opponent that is coming off a win. They’re also 24-35-3 ATS when they are coming off a win themselves. They are 3-7 ATS against teams that just played Tennessee, who Jacksonville just blew out. They’re also 2-5 against the AFC at home.
On the Jaguars side, you have to consider how head coach Doug Pederson does on the road. He is currently 7-0 ATS on the road in the last seven games. Having Trevor Lawrence doesn’t hurt either, as he is 11-4 ATS in the last 15. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better and 7-0 ATS against opponents that are coming off a win. This should be close, but I’ll take the more experienced coach and quarterback.
The Pick: Jaguars (-1.5) Betting three favorites in a row makes me nervous, but sometimes that’s the way it goes.
Carolina Panthers @ Tennessee Titans (-3.5): Can Either Of These Teams Turn It Around?
The season has been disappointing for the Carolina Panthers and the Tennessee Titans. After having the first pick in the draft and selecting Bryce Young, the Panthers have been one of the worst teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Titans benched their starting quarterback for second-round rookie Will Levis. Neither of these quarterbacks seems like the answer for their teams yet. Which one do the Week 12 trends to bet favor?
You’d be hard-pressed to find a worse team in the NFL right now than the Panthers. Head Coach Frank Reich is 1-4 ATS on the road this year. The Panthers are also 1-7 ATS on Sundays. They are 0-5-1 ATS after a straight up loss to an AFC team as well. Even though they are normally decent against the AFC South, they are only 2-6-1 ATS with Bryce Young as their starting quarterback.
The Titans, on the other hand, are looking to turn it around with their talented roster. They are also a very different team at home. In fact, Tennessee has covered 1-5 on the road but 3-1 at home. They’re 8-2 ATS against teams with poor defenses. They are also 6-1 ATS at home prior to playing the Colts. The Titans can’t beat good teams. However, they are 11-4 ATS at home against teams with a losing record in the last 15 games. I told you how the Panthers are 1-7 ATS on Sundays. The Titans are 10-5 at home on Sundays.
The Pick: Another favorite. Titans (-3.5)
LA Rams @ Arizona Cardinals: Can Rams Stay In Wild-Card Race?
There is no doubt that the LA Rams are a completely different team when Matt Stafford is quarterbacking. Staying healthy has been key. Unfortunately, it sounds like they’ll be without star wide receiver Cooper Kupp. On the other side, the Cardinals are trending up now that Kyler Murray is back. They’ve looked like a better football team. Which team is better according to the Week 12 trends to bet?
Do we stay on the favorites train of this article? The Rams are 8-2 ATS on the road when playing a team for the second time. They have also historically owned the Cardinals. They are 7-0 in Arizona in the last seven games. The Rams play their division tough anyway, where they are 11-4 ATS on the road.
The Cardinals are the exact opposite. They’re 2-12 ATS against Sean McVay in the last 14 games. The Cardinals are 1-9 ATS when playing the NFC West and 1-9 ATS at home when playing the 2nd game of the season against an opponent. They’re 1-6 when trying to avenge a loss to the Rams. Even though they are normally decent at home recently and as an underdog, the Cardinals are 15-25-1 ATS in November.
The Pick: Rams (-1)
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Indianapolis Colts (-2.5): Two Disappointing Teams Playing For Pride
These two aren’t as disappointing as the Panthers and Titans, but they’re still disappointing. The Bucs started the season looking like they could compete for the division but have come up short recently. The Colts had to place rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson on injured reserve and try to win games with Gardner Minshew. Which of these low-expectations teams do the Week 12 trends to bet say will cover?
This is a game that goes against what I wanted to pick. I wanted to pick the Bucs, but here’s why the Week 12 betting trends say I shouldn’t. The Bucs are 0-7 ATS before playing the Panthers. They’re also 2-10 ATS against the AFC South on the road. They’re 4-11 against an opponent that just had a win and 10-17-1 ATS with head coach Todd Bowles. The Bucs struggle against the AFC. They’re 3-7 ATS in the last 10, and they’re 4-10-1 after a straight-up loss.
The Colts are the fresher team, coming off a bye week. They didn’t have to just play the physical team of the 49ers like the Bucs did. In fact, they’re 6-1 ATS when playing an opponent that just played San Francisco. They’re also 11-3-1 ATS after a bye. The Bucs have a decent run-stopping defense. Unfortunately for them, the Colts are 6-1 ATS when they play teams with good rush defenses. The Colts are also 25-15-3 ATS before playing Tennessee and 30-19-1 against the AFC in the last fifty. You have to take the 2.5 here.
The Pick: Colts -2.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals: Are Bengals Lost Without Joe Burrow?
This should have been a better game than it likely will be. These two teams are trying to stay in the playoff race, while the Ravens and Browns are ahead of them in the AFC North. The Bengals lost Joe Burrow for the season last week. The Steelers have finally fired Matt Canada. Which team rallies behind the changes and adversity more? Let’s take a look at the Week 12 trends to bet and find out.
The Bengals will be starting Jake Browning after it was announced Joe Burrow will be out for the season. There aren’t many other defenses that would make for a worse first start than the Steelers. The Bengals are also on the wrong side of some betting trends. They’re 2-8 ATS against the AFC and 6-20-1 ATS against teams that don’t have a good passing attack. They’re also 8-16-1 when facing an opponent that is coming off a close loss. You can’t throw out the fact that Tomlin has owned this team when it comes to the spread. The Bengals are 12-21 ATS against Tomlin. They are also 2-5 when the total is projected to be 35 or less and 3-7 against low-scoring teams.
The Steelers are definitely a low-scoring team. It’s one of the reasons they fired Matt Canda, and you’d expect a little bounce-back for them offensively. There are other trends to help them out, though. The Steelers are 17-7-1 ATS in Cincinnati. They are also 8-2 ATS after a close loss. They are 6-2 ATS on the road when avenging a loss against Cincinnati. Oddly enough, the Browns game seems to fuel the Steelers. They are 6-1 ATS on the road after playing Cleveland. Tomlin has been good on the road in the past ten. Sure, it’s normally as a dog, but this one is a low enough spread it doesn’t scare me. He’s 7-3 ATS on the road in the last ten.
The Pick: All favorites this week – Steelers (-1)