Following the wild midweek action in the European tournament, English clubs return to domestic competition with a full slate of matches for Premier League Matchday 12.
Five games kick off the weekend schedule in England. Manchester United and Arsenal both host lesser competition, while Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle hit the road.
The headliner in the EPL comes on Sunday when Chelsea welcomes Manchester City. Brentford traveling to Anfield to play Liverpool is another great game on the day.
This is a much more tricky slate from a betting perspective compared to last week. However, read down below for our preview of every match and best bets for Premier League Matchday 12.
Premier League Matchday 12 – Preview & Best Bets
Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Tottenham Hotspur – Spurs have a lengthy injury list, and Wolves are without their best player. This is an easy pass.
Manchester United vs. Luton – No, we won’t be fading United again this time. Luton’s road metrics are the main reason why.
Arsenal vs. Burnley – Arsenal Win to Nil (-120) Bet365
We faded the Burnley attack last week, and we are going back to it here with Arsenal’s stout defense. On the season, the Clarets rank in the Bottom 3 in the EPL in expected goals (9.6), big scoring chances per 90 minutes (1.182), and shots per match (10.36), according to fbref.com.
The numbers on the road against top competition are even worse. When away from home against Top 10 sides, Burnley averaged less than one xG and failed to score at Newcastle and Brentford.
As for Arsenal, manager Mikel Arteta has built a strong defense that is only bested by Manchester City in most categories. When the Gunners have played Bottom 10 teams, this same play would have cashed in four of five fixtures.
I expect Arsenal to be motivated after the recent dropped points to dominate Burnley.
Crystal Palace vs. Everton – I lean to the over in this game, especially if Palace’s attacking options return. It’s not enough for an official play.
Bournemouth vs. Newcastle – Magpies on the Asian handicap of -1 just missed the article this week. However, they have a difficult week of travel to keep me away here.
Brighton vs. Sheffield – There may need to be a conversation about the dip in form for Brighton, but it likely won’t matter here.
West Ham vs. Nottingham Forest – If you are a situational better, you would want to fade Forest off the big win last week. I think the odds are just about right here.
Aston Villa vs. Fulham – Villa -1 (+102) Bet365
Unai Emery’s team at Villarreal was known for performing much better at home compared to on the road. His Villa side is following that same trend.
At Villa Park this season, Aston Villa owns a +6.6 xGDiff and a perfect 5-0 record. The Villans have also outscored opponents 20-4 at home.
If you go back to the last campaign, the club won nine of 13 home fixtures under Emery, including seven straight to end the season.
Meanwhile, Fulham’s road results on the surface do not look bad. However, the Cottagers own a -5.5 xGDiff away from home.
The visitors’ weak attack will not be enough to keep up with Villa here. I don’t hate the home side as a great moneyline parlay piece as well.
Liverpool vs. Brentford – Brentford is always tough to beat, but the Reds are too good at home to go against here.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City – Which Chelsea team shows up? City is overvalued, but it is hard to know what version of the Blues you will get.
