A new month brings another full slate of Premier League action this weekend, and the Sports Gambling Podcast Network previews all the games with our EPL best bets.
Seven matches kick off the weekend on Saturday, which includes Arsenal’s trip to Newcastle. Manchester City welcomes Bournemouth, while Manchester United travels to Fulham on the same day.
Following Sunday’s two fixtures, the headliner of Matchday 11 is Tottenham Hotspur hosting Chelsea. Spurs could be the final remaining undefeated side if their rival Gunners slip up earlier in the weekend.
After not loving the slate a week ago, I do have three plays for my EPL best bets as we reach the midway point of the campaign.
EPL Best Bets for Matchday 11
Fulham vs. Manchester United – Fulham +0.5 (-130) Caesars
As a Fulham fan, I typically stay away from their matches, but you can’t tell me that United warrants being at these odds. This is the same Red Devils’ squad whose leading scorer in the Premier League is Scott McTominay.
It also won’t help that manager Erik ten Hag will be without Luke Shaw, Lisandro Martinez, and Casemiro in this match. If you just looked at their metrics and not their club name, would Manchester United still be the favorite here?
These odds have been moving in Fulham’s favor. You could pair this with the total falling under 3.5 or 4.5 goals for a better price, but I’ll keep it simple with the home team to get a result.
Brentford vs. West Ham – I make the odds right where they are slated. The Bees do have the rest advantage and play well at home typically.
Manchester City vs. Bournemouth – City will be in all of the parlays, and it is probably the right choice.
Burnley vs. Crystal Palace – Both Teams to Score – No (-110) FanDuel
This may start to become a weekly play until Crystal Palace gets the club’s main playmakers back in, Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise. In the three matches without them, the Eagles have created just two big scoring chances and less than one expected goal per game, according to fbref.com.
Manager Roy Hodgson will set his team up to go away from home and be compact defensively. I just don’t trust Burnley to be able to break the Eagles down.
On the season, the Clarets are towards the bottom of the league in multiple offensive categories, including expected goals, big chances, and shots per 90 minutes. It wouldn’t shock me if this ended 0-0.
Sheffield United vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Wolves are missing their best attacking player here. However, I still can’t bet on Sheffield.
Everton vs. Brighton – Everton would have been my next favorite play of the week. I like the team total better than the handicap, but I am going to stay away.
Newcastle United vs. Arsenal – Newcastle Draw No Bet (+100) DraftKings
You could argue that no team has more home-field advantage in the world than Newcastle. It was a big surprise to me that Arsenal is the road favorite in this match.
At St. James’ Park, the Magpies own a +7.3 xGDiff and have outscored opponents 13-3. This doesn’t include beating both City and Paris Saint-Germain at home in cup competitions.
Meanwhile, Arsenal will be without star striker Gabriel Jesus, who would be needed to break down the Newcastle defense. Yes, Alexander Isak is out as well for the Magpies, but Callum Wilson is much better than the Gunners’ reserve striker options.
The wrong team is favored in Saturday’s headliner. So, give me the home underdog for this week’s EPL best bets.
Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa – Unlike Arsenal, Forest gets its top striker back. The Trees are tough at home, but I’m passing on this one.
Luton Town vs. Liverpool – It is a fun spectacle to see the giants go play at Luton’s stadium. However, it doesn’t mean you have to bet on those games.
Tottenham vs. Chelsea – I’m passing on the Mauricio Pochettino derby. This should be a great match for Monday Night Football, though.
