After a week off, the PGA Tour resumes south of the border. It’s the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship on the El Cardonal golf course at the Diamante Cabo San Lucas in Mexico. As always, here is your early deep dive on the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship and a preview of how to bet.
2023 World Wide Technology Championship Preview
The Field
In prior years, this event (previously held at Mayakoba on the opposite side of Mexico) would draw a lot of big names. Players like Scottie Scheffler, Viktor Hovland, Justin Thomas, Rickie Fowler, and others would parlay an appearance at this tournament with a nice Mexican vacation.
But with no incentive other than maybe a sponsorship commitment to play in any Fall event for those who have secured their place in the elevated events in 2024, there isn’t an incentive for any big name to play not just here but any fall event.
And this week, once again, the tournament is pretty scarce with big names.
The highlight of the field is Cameron Young. He’s still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, and if he doesn’t knock it off on a golf course where he can bomb away and against a field with only a handful that are as talented as him, who knows when it will come. But as we’ll describe below, this golf course is a really good fit for him. This week might be it.
Other notables in the field include Ludvig Aberg, Sahith Theegala, Chris Kirk, Michael Block (to the chagrin of the online golf community), Lucas Glover, and Matt Kuchar.
For the full field, click here.
The Golf Course
The PGA Tour (and professional golf, for that matter) is forever in the debt of Tiger Woods. Without him, you probably wouldn’t be reading this column. And because of that, the PGA Tour will gladly shove him down the throats of fans for literally anything. Because at the end of the day, Tiger Woods is the only thing that matters to golf fans, of which the vast majority are casual.
But the one thing the PGA Tour has yet to do was play on a golf course designed by Tiger Woods. That ends this week. Up until this year, this tournament was held at the Mayakoba Resort in Playa del Carmen. However, due to its affiliation with Greg Norman and LIV Golf, the tournament moved to the opposite coast and will be played on Tiger Woods’ first golf course he designed – the El Cardonal at Diamante Cabo San Lucas.
El Cardonal opened in December 2014 to much excitement. As mentioned before, this was the first golf course that Tiger Woods designed. He created the golf course with the hopes that it would mirror some of the types of golf courses he played in Southern California as a child. And the expectations were quite high when it opened:
Let’s first start with the golf course amenities. They’re top-notch at El Cardonal. There’s a Nike Golf Store located right on the premises. There’s a huge driving range with indoor stalls equipped with launch monitors and a learning center. And on the course, there are several comfort stations that offer an extensive food and beverage service. Guests of the resort who play El Cardonal they’re certainly pampered.
And we can’t talk about this golf course without also mentioning the land it sits in. It’s a very solid piece of property. The golf course sits on a hill overlooking the Pacific Ocean. And the layout is primarily linear. Almost all the holes either play uphill away from the ocean or downhill towards it. And it’s these downhill tee shots that provide some of the best vistas on the golf course with a full view of the deep blue Pacific Ocean.
The land is also naturally uneven and undulating. There won’t be a lot of flat lies to be found at El Cardonal. And the golf course plays best (and typically) firm and fast. That can cause some excitement once the ball hits the turf. It could go in several different directions depending on what side of a hump or slope it hits.
Tiger also tried to make the golf course as friendly for resort guests as it could be, primarily with fairway widths. The fairways are extremely wide. They average about 60 yards in length. And the greens are also very big. They average about 8,300 square feet in area. As long as a mid to higher handicapper doesn’t hit it well offline, they should get added roll out from the ball landing on short grass and getting extra distance from the firmer conditions.
But there’s still some challenge to the golf course for the better player. Several bunkers, including annoying centerline ones, are in the landing zone for better players. The greens, while big, are also very undulating and contoured and can be difficult to putt on. Their undulating nature also can mean players can only go pin hunting if they’re on the correct side of a fairway. Otherwise, they’ll have to aim toward the fat part of the green well away from the pin and hope they avoid a three putt.
The greenside surrounds also can make for difficult ups and downs. The bunkers are boldly edged and set well below the putting surface. Getting up and down from off of them likely isn’t an easy chore. Surrounding all the greens is short grass with mounds, hollows, and collection areas. While high handicappers may still be able to putt back onto the surface, the better player will have to clip it perfectly off the short grass with a wedge to get the ball close to the hole. Anytime players have to chip off short grass, it ups the difficulty.
Finally, while the fairways are very generous, trouble can await those who somehow miss one. There’s no rough at El Cardonal. Instead, each fairway is flanked by the desert arroyo. It can be a game of chance, should one hit there. Some areas, primarily on the front nine, are mostly just sandy waste areas without a lot of desert vegetation to incur a penalty. Other areas, primarily on the back nine, are full of think cactus bushes and other desert vegetation that’ll surely cause an unplayable lie.
Overall, El Cardonal is a solid offering from Tiger Woods, mostly due to its friendly setup for mid to high handicappers and the fantastic views of the Pacific Ocean. And considering most of the golf courses seen on the PGA Tour are narrow, tree lined parklands courses, El Cardonal, at the very least, will be visually appealing because it’s just different than what we’re used to watching.
For pictures of the golf course and a better preview of what’s in store at this week’s 2023 World Wide Technology Championship, click here.
Betting Strategies
This is a brand new golf course to handicap. And going forward, there won’t be any Strokes Gained or ShotLink data to digest either. And the field this week is dreadful. Even if we were to properly identify what characteristics are needed to do well at this tournament, 95% of the field absolutely cannot be trusted to execute that plan even if, on paper, they possess these skills.
However, there are definitely things we can identify about what should work at El Cardonal based on the design of the golf course, as well as certain characteristics it shares with similar golf courses played on the PGA Tour.
Here’s everything to know about what things bettors should lean on before making bets at the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship.
General Information
El Cardonal at Diamante is a Par 72 and normally plays at 7,363 yards. However, not only do the Par 5 1st and 18th play at less than 550 yards normally, they also play significantly downhill. Under these conditions, it’s simply too short for PGA Tour standards. As such, each hole will utilize temporary tee boxes to stretch them to over 580 yards each. That will make the golf course play at 7,452 yards for the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship.
Here are the lengths of each of the holes at the golf course:
Par 3’s
- No. 2 – 208 Yards
- No. 9 – 200 Yards
- No. 11 – 189 Yards
- No. 16 – 155 Yards
Par 4’s
- <375 Yards: 2 (No. 3 & 10)
- 375-425 Yards: 1 (No. 12)
- 425-475 Yards: 5 (No. 5, 8, 13, 15 & 17)
- 475+ Yards: 2 (No. 4 & 7)
Par 5’s
- No. 1 – 582 Yards
- No. 6 – 601 Yards
- No. 14 – 554 Yards
- No. 18 – 585 Yards
However, simply relying on the scorecard yardages is only half the story. Almost every hole plays either directly uphill or directly downhill. There is a 228 foot difference in elevation between the highest point of the golf course (the north end) and the lowest point (the south end).
As such, some of these holes will play a lot longer or shorter than the scorecard yardage. For example, while the Par 5 14th is only 554 yards, it plays 76 feet uphill, which will make it play closer to 580 yards.
These types of adjustments will have to be taken into account not just by the players but for gamblers too. In order to properly estimate what each approach shot yardage into the hole will be, taking the time to adjust these yardages to how they’ll play is key. This will be discussed further below.
Agronomy
El Cardonal at Diamante is wall to wall paspalum. Due to its close proximity to the Pacific Ocean, using a salt-tolerant grass like Paspalum is appropriate. Plus, paspalum is a very popular grass to use on tropical resort golf courses due to its grabby nature. Once the ball hits the ground, it doesn’t go too far after that. That helps mid to higher handicappers who struggle to hit greens on a consistent basis. Either it’ll stay on the putting surface, or if they miss a green it won’t go too far away from it.
Unfortunately, paspalum is not a grass seen often on the PGA Tour. And worse yet, almost none of them have any strokes gained statistics to digest who excels and who struggles. However, here are a list of golf courses on the PGA Tour that utilize paspalum fairways and greens:
- Vidanta Vallarta (Mexico Open
- Mayakoba Golf Course (former World Wide Technology Championship golf course)
- Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Championship)
- Grand Reserve (Puerto Rico Open)
- The Ocean Course (2021 PGA Championship
In addition, there are several DP World Tour venues that utilize paspalum. They’re primarily located in the Middle East. Here are golf courses on that tour that have paspalum:
- Yas Golf Links – Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship
- Al Hamra GC – Ras al Khaimah Classic
- Doha GC – Qatar Masters
- Royal Greens G&CC – Saudi International
- Golf Costa Adeje – Canary Islands Championship & Terife Open
- Al Mouj Golf – Oman Open
Additionally, the recent Ryder Cup venue at Marco Simone had paspalum fairways. That’s relevant for a discussion below when handicapping how El Cardonal will play off the tee.
Off The Tee
We can make some fairly easy assumptions given the nature of the golf course when it pertains to off the tee. The fairways are extremely wide, averaging a little over 60 yards in width. Some holes, including the Par 5 1st, feature a fairway as long as a football field wide. Missing them will truly take a gross mishit from a professional.
There’s a little more nuance to just bombing it everywhere without regard though. Factors such as extreme elevation changes tee-to-green will dictate just how far a player can hit it. There also are a lot of mounds and slopes to the fairway that can dictate ultimately where it winds up in the fairway. Lastly, the paspalum grass is very grabby. As such, don’t expect a ton of roll out, especially on the uphill shots. They’ll mostly just stop dead in its track.
In addition, there might be a significant penalty for missing a fairway. Flanking each fairway is the desert arroyo. In some areas, it simply is a sandy waste area and won’t incur much of a penalty, if at all. But in other areas, there is dense desert vegetation that’ll certainly lead to a lost ball or an unplayable lie.
Lastly, there are some well-placed fairway bunkers that will be in play for the professionals this week at the 2023 World Wide Technology. For example, on Hole No. 8, there’s a large centerline bunker reachable with a drive of 302 yards. While the width between arroyo to arroyo is 77 yards long, its presence does shrink the optimal landing zone.
Another example is on the downhill Par 5 18th. With its extreme downhill nature, players should be able to max out both their carry distance and rollout. However, there’s a large fairway bunker reachable 323 yards off the tee, which, for most players, is definitely in play whether by carrying into it or seeing their drive roll into it.
There are two theories that can arise based on the description of the golf course with respect to off the tee:
- Target players that hit it the farthest, as there’s more room for error with a mishit.
- Off the tee doesn’t matter at all. Everyone will be hitting fairways and can benefit from extra roll out and carry distance on the downhill holes.
But the key ingredient to answering this question is in the agronomy. Because of the grabby nature of the paspalum, tee shots don’t roll out very far once it hits the ground. Even for a shorter hitter, their driving distance can be capped because they can’t carry it far off the tee, and they won’t get an extra boost from roll out. Even on downhill holes.
As such, players who hit it a long way generally have an advantage on golf courses that feature paspalum. And this is evident based on the predictive skill set charts from other golf courses with paspalum. Here are a few examples (per DataGolf):
At all three golf courses that are driver-heavy and feature paspalum, increased distance is a higher correlated attribute to success than the average PGA Tour golf course. Based on the conditions at El Cardonal, expect a similar trend to continue this week at the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship.
Approach Play
As described above, players will hit their approach shots into the greens overwhelmingly from the fairway. However, trying to figure out from where players will hit their approach shot isn’t easy to determine at El Cardonal. Between the grabby paspalum eliminating roll out from tee shots to the extreme uphill and downhill nature tee-to-green that will either neutralize the paspalum via carry distance and rollout or enhance its grabby nature, it’s tricky to determine the proximity buckets this week.
However, here is a guess of what the proximity buckets will be this week at El Cardonal:
This analysis involved evaluating each hole tee-to-green on Google Earth, identifying the likely landing spots for tee shots based on elevation changes and roll out, and by adjusting the approach yardage based on how uphill or downhill the approach shot will be.
For the most part, a heavy concentration of shots will be seen from between 125-150 yards, 175-200 yards, and 225+ yards. The three shots over 225 yards will be three of the four Par 5’s. As for the Par 5 6th, between its 600 yard scorecard yardage and the fact it plays 66 feet uphill, it’s probably a three shot hole for nearly the entire field.
In terms of valuing approach play overall, there are two competing theories for what to expect this week. And it all has to do with the paspalum:
- Target better iron players because they’ll be able to hit and stop it far closer to the hole than weaker ones for great looks at birdie.
- Iron play isn’t predictive. The grabby nature of the greens means everyone will be hitting the green in regulation at high rates. It’s going to be a putting contest.
Considering the expected high green in regulation rates, wide fairways, and no weather concerns, I expect scoring to be pretty good this week. As such, solid form with the irons should be a little more predictive to success at El Cardonal than the average PGA Tour stop. The ability to give oneself lots of great looks at birdie will prove key to success at El Cardonal.
Around the Green
If there is a defense to the golf course, it’s probably around the green.
For starters, every green features primarily short grass. And there’s a lot of collection areas, hollows, and mounts around it. Anytime players are forced to chip from off short grass, it increases the difficulty.
However, the paspalum does make the task of scrambling from off the green a little easier. Other than a blatant mishit, a professional should be able to enjoy clipping the ball and seeing it stop in close proximity to the hole. The ball should stop pretty quickly once the ball finds the putting surface. As such, getting up and down from off a paspalum green is a little easier than on other green types.
In addition, the bunker around each green might be pretty tricky to get up and down from out of too. They’re set well below the putting surface and have very bold edges. In fact, they remind me a lot of the bunkers seen at TPC San Antonio. And those bunkers are notoriously some of the toughest get up and down from on the PGA Tour (per DataGolf statistics). Players might find similar difficulties this week at El Cardonal.
But overall, considering players are hitting a ton of approach shots from the fairway and onto huge green surfaces, there probably won’t be a lot of times players will have to try and get up and down. While the ability to scramble well might turn into the difference between winning and losing, it probably won’t be a huge factor towards in-tournament success at the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship.
Putting
There is a ton of undulation to these greens. One can see with the naked eye the significant curvature of the greens through pictures of the golf course. This likely is another defense to the golf course. Players won’t have a ton of straight putts this week, especially from longer ranges.
As such, this tournament probably won’t be a putting contest. Players who aren’t crisp with their irons this week probably won’t get good looks at birdie given some of the undulations they’ll have to navigate to get the ball closer to the hole. Scoring opportunities will come for those who are striking it really well, not from those who are riding a hot putter.
As such, targeting players just because they’re good putters probably won’t yield consistent results. It certainly won’t be a knock against anyone if they are a good putter. That helps no matter where one plays. Rather, it’ll be more predictive to separate the wheat and the chafe based on how well they strike the ball. After that, start whittling down the field further based on how well they putt.
Comparable Golf Courses
Here’s a list of golf courses one might refer to in order to see what players might play well at El Cardonal at Diamante.
1. Any of the Paspalum golf courses (Corales, Grand Reserve, Vidanta Vallarta etc.). Paspalum isn’t a grass seen often on the PGA Tour. Any experience at these venues is an edge.
2. TPC San Antonio: Both El Cardonal and TPC San Antonio sit on a hill where most of the holes are either dramatically uphill or downhill. In addition, the bunkering and significantly undulated greens at each venue are comparable to each other. The expected approach shot proximity ranges are also similar between the two golf courses.
3. Kapalua: Both golf courses have wide fairways, significant elevation changes, and uneven lies with the approach shots.
4. Augusta National: Both golf courses have wide fairways, significant elevation changes, uneven lies with the approach shots, highly undulated greens, and short grass around each green.
5. Memorial Park: Both golf courses are driver-heavy, feature highly undulated greens and short grass around each green.
6. Congaree: Wide fairways, no rough, short grass around the greens.
7. Trinity Forest: Wide fairways. No rough. Uneven Lies. Short Grass around each green. Highly undulated greens.
Based on shared similarities in architecture and design, these golf courses might provide a great preview as to who will play well at the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship.
