Week 8 of the NFL season is already here! We know a lot more than we did in August, but so does Vegas. We saw very tight lines and very low totals in Week 7. Right now, both home and away teams are batting .500 against the spread. There are a lot of backup quarterbacks playing, and offenses are off-pace from 2022. Unders are hitting at 60% (125 – 84). In this article, I will give my Week 8 NFL picks, discussing betting trends for each game.
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Week 8 NFL Picks: Updated Odds, Upsets, and 2023 NFL Betting Trends
NFL Betting Trends:
Favorites: 67-39 (63.2%)
Underdog: 39-67 (39-67 (36.5%)
Home Teams: 56-50 (52.8%)
Away Teams: 50-56 (47.2%)
Picks of the Week: Los Angeles Rams +6.5
Survival Pool Pick: Atlanta Falcons
Underdog of the Week: New York Giants +2.5
Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons -2.5
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5)
Buccaneers Moneyline: +340
Bills Moneyline: -420
My Pick: Buffalo Bills Moneyline
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been much better than advertised in 2023. Public betters are taking Buffalo minus the points at 81%. Buffalo is missing too many pieces on defense. I will take their moneyline and take Tampa to cover. Buffalo is 15-3 straight up in its last 18 games. Tampa has gone under in six of their last seven, and the game total has gone under in eight of their last ten. The total is 43.5, and 65% of betters are taking the under.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Rams Moneyline: +230
Cowboys Moneyline: -270
My Pick: Los Angeles Rams + 6.5
The total in this game is 45.5, and 64% of betters are taking the under. We have two competing trends. Los Angeles has gone under in four of their last five. Their totals have gone under in nine of the last 12 games. Dallas, on the other hand, is over in all but one of their last seven games. The Rams are 4-2-1 against the spread. I will take the 6.5 and put it on the Rams. I will take the over with the Rams passing offense trending up and Dallas’ defense trending down.
Minnesota Vikings (-1) @ Green Bay Packers
Vikings Moneyline: -109
Packers Moneyline: +100
My Pick: Minnesota Vikings -1
Minnesota’s impressive win on prime time has 60% of the public betting on Minnesota. Different books have different spreads, Vikings are +1, and Packers are +1, depending on where you look. The over and under is set at 42.5. Betters are putting their money on the over 76% of the time. What they might know is that the total has gone over for both teams in five of their last six. Aaron Jones is healthy. I am taking the over.
Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ Tennessee Titans
Falcons Moneyline: -148
Titans Moneyline: +132
My Pick: Atlanta Falcons -2.5
I would lock this one in as soon as possible. Ryan Tannehill is not expected to play, and news has gotten out that Will Levis will start. Coach Mike Vrabel denied this, but all reports are that Will Levis will start. It could possibly be a combination of Malik Willis and Will Levis. The Falcons should easily cover the 2.5, and public betting has not caught up to the news. The over is currently 35.5, and 86% of betters are taking the over.
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins (-9)
Patriots Moneline: +360
Dolphins Moneyline: -400
My Pick: Miami Dolphins Moneyline
This is another one to watch with injury news. Tyreek Hill missed practice, and the spread has gone from 9.5 to 9. It could continue to drop as reports are trending as if Hill could miss. Miami is 5-0 vs the spread and 15-2 straight up at home in their last 17. I am taking Miami in this one, but I would wait for the news on Hill to see if this can get down closer to 7 points. The total is currently 46.5, and 64% of public bets are taking the under.
Houston Texans (-3) @ Carolina Panthers
Texans Moneyline:
Panthers Moneyline:
My Pick: Houston Texans -3
We have two competing trends again. Carolina is 4-1 against the spread in its last five games versus Houston. Houston is 5-1 against the spread in its last six games. These two teams are much different, and Houston is moving in a much more positive direction. I am taking Houston, minus the point. I am siding with the 87% of betters and taking the over in this one.
New York Jets (-3) @ New York Giants
Jets Moneyline: -146
Giants Moneyline: +130
My Pick: New York Giants + 3
Instead of Aaron Rodgers vs. Daniel Jones, it looks like we will get Tyrod Taylor versus Zach Wilson. Right now, 56% of the public bets are taking the under on the 36.5 total. Two good defenses, two bad offenses, and a really low total. Totals in the Giants’ last five games, and the Jets have gone under eight of their last eleven. The Giants have played well two weeks in a row. Give me the points. I will take the under in this one as well.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Jaguars Moneyline: -142
Steelers Moneyline: +128
My Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5
The public likes the Steelers moneyline at 55%, and 54% are taking the over at 41.5. Jacksonville is getting 53% of the public’s bets at the current spread of 2.5. Jacksonville has covered the spread in five straight, and I am taking them to do it six times. Steelers have gone under in five of their last six and only gone over once in their last six against Jacksonville. I am taking the Jaguars -2.5 and taking the over in this one.
Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints (-1)
Colts Moneline:+100
Saints Moneyline:-109
My Pick: New Orleans Saints Moneyline
The public is heavy on the Saints at 73% and 62%, giving the Colts the point. As of now, 58% are taking the over at 43.5. The Saints continue to go under on the road, and their totals continue to go under. I am taking the under. These teams have gone under in five of their last six. The Colts’ strength is their running game, and the Saints’ strength is stopping it. This will be a close one, but give me the Saints -1.
Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders
Eagles Moneyline: -290
Commanders Moneyline: +240
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles -6.5
Philadelphia straight up is a lock right now. In their last 12 games, they have won ten straight up and six of their last seven. The total has gone under in seven of Washington’s last eight home games. The Commanders have also gone under in 15 of their last 22 games. Right now, 62% of betters think Philadelphia is going to cover, and 67% are taking their moneyline. Betters are hitting the total to go under at 64%. I am taking Eagles -6.5 and the under.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Browns Moneyline: +160
Seahawks Moneyline: -175
My Pick: Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Right now, 90% of betters are taking the under in this one, with Deshaun Watson’s status in question. Cleveland’s moneyline is getting 68% of the public’s money, and 84% of the public has faith in Seattle to cover. Seattle covered the spread in four of their last five. Both teams have seen the totals go under at a very high percentage. The total has gone under in nine of the last 13 games for Cleveland and five out of six for Seattle.
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
Baltimore Ravens (-8) @ Arizona Cardinals
Ravens Moneyline: -390
Cardinals Moneyline: +320
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens Moneyline
Baltimore’s offense is starting to hit its stride, and Arizona’s defense is starting to show cracks. Budda Baker could be shipped out next week, and they have allowed the over in four of their last six. Baltimore is 5-1 against the spread on the road. Right now, 62% of the public is betting on the total of 44 to go over. Right now, 56% of the public think Baltimore will cover, and 67% are taking the moneyline. I am taking the moneyline and the over.
Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers (-3.5)
Bengals Moneyline:
49ers Moneyline:
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +3.5
San Francisco is dealing, and now Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol. Cincinnati is coming off of a bye and is starting to get healthy. Trent Williams and Deebo Samuel being injured has really changed things for San Francisco. Now, Purdy is expected to be out. Sam Darnold is one of the better backups, but I am taking the Bengals. The Bengals are 5-1 against the spread when playing San Francisco in their last six games.
Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5) @ Denver Broncos
Chiefs Moneyline: -310
Broncos Moneyline: 280
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs -7.5
The Denver Broncos are bracing for a fire sale, and the Kansas City Chiefs are preparing for a playoff run. Kansas City should roll over the Broncos, even if we spot them a touchdown. The over has hit in nine of Denver’s last twelve games. The betters are heavily putting their money on Kansas City, and so am I. The worry is if Denver can do enough to keep up with the 46 point spread. Give me the over in this one and the Kansas City Swifts.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Chargers (-8.5)
Bears Moneyline:
Chargers Moneyline:
My Pick: Los Angeles Chargers Moneyline
More competing trends: the Bears continue to go over, and the Chargers go under. The last five times these teams played, they went under four times. Currently, the under is 46.5, and 57% of betters are taking the over. Chargers are getting 50% of bets against the spread and 49% of moneyline bets. They have lost the trust, even when they are by far a better team on paper. Bad coaching creates unpredictability. Give me the under and the Chargers.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions (-8)
Raiders Moneyline: +310
Lions Moneyline: -390
My Pick: Detroit Lions -8
The Lions are expected to start Aidan O’Connell, and 98% of the public is putting money on the Lions -8. Detroit got boat raced last week, and they do not play well from behind. The public is betting for the total to go over 46.5 at 63%. Detroit has been dominant against the spread this year (7-1). Las Vegas has allowed the over in five of their last seven vs. Detroit. But the Raiders have gone under in four of five games. Give me the under and the Lions.
