NFL Week 6 is in the books, and our referee best bets went 1-2. The Rams fell short of reaching their team total of 28 points after scoring only six points in the first half. Nonetheless, we are on to NFL Week 7, and there are plenty of referee trends to discuss for NFL Week 7! I always put this out as a disclaimer: the NFL Referee Report is not something that you should bet blindly on. Instead, it should be an extra data point in your handicapping. Let’s dive into the NFL Week 7 Referee Report.
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NFL Week 7 Referee Betting Stats and Trends
Shawn Smith
Thus far this season, Shawn Smith’s officiated games have been overwhelmingly favorable to road teams. In fact, in five games officiated by Smith, the road teams are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS. Smith officiated the second London game, where the Jags were classified as the “road” team.
Further, over the last five seasons, the road team is 36-26-1 (58.1%) ATS in games officiated by Smith. This week, Smith is assigned to officiate the Cleveland Browns visiting the Indianapolis Colts as a three-point favorite.
Best Bet: Browns -3
Scott Novak
We are going back to Scott Novak this week because his referee betting trends and stats jump off the page. Thus far this season, road teams are 4-2 SU and 3-2-1 against the spread. Further, over the last five seasons, Novak has been the most profitable referee against the spread for road teams.
In that span, road teams are 44-22-2 (66.7%) ATS and 40-27-1 (59.7%) SU. This week, Novak is assigned to officiate the NFC West Divisional battle between the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.
Best Bet: Cardinals +7.5
John Hussey
As great as road teams are for Novak, it is quite the contrary for games officiated by John Hussey. If you are betting on home teams with John Hussey officiating, you are in the money! In fact, over the last five seasons, home teams are 35-29-2 ATS (54.7%) and 41-25 SU (62.1%).
Furthermore, over the last five seasons, home underdogs are 12-4 (75%) in games officiated by John Hussey. Hussey and his crew were the officials last week in the Browns’ upset victory at home against the San Francisco 49ers. In NFL Week 7, Hussey is assigned to officiate the NFC East battle between the Washington Commanders and the New York Giants.
Best Bet: Giants +2
Ron Torbert
Home teams are a perfect 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS through the first five weeks of the NFL season. Further, home teams are averaging 28.3 points per game. Additionally, home teams have scored 25+ points in four straight games.
This week, Torbert is assigned to officiate the NFC South battle between the Atlanta Falcons and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Best Bet: Buccaneers -2.5
