After bringing UFC 280 to Abu Dhabi last October, the UFC is back again this weekend with UFC 294. And in an unprecedented turn of events, last-minute changes have actually made this card stronger rather than weaker. UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander Volkanovski has stepped into the main event to rematch Islam Makhachev for the lightweight title, and in the co-main event, former welterweight king Kamaru Usman moves up to middleweight to take on hyped phenom Khamzat Chimaev. Here are my UFC 294 predictions and best bets.
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UFC 294 Predictions & Best Bets
Islam Makhachev (-250) vs. Alexander Volkanovski
I just wrote an article on how to bet on UFC championship rematches, and now I’ve got a chance to put that knowledge to the test. The stats in that article show that the champ retains their title in the 70-75% range, so Islam Makhachev has to be my pick here. Not only did he beat Alexander Volkanovski in their first fight, but now Volk is stepping in here on short notice (short-notice fighters only win 37% of the time). This is a more exciting rematch than the original Islam Makhachev vs Charles Oliveira one, but I see the same man getting his hand raised regardless.
Khamzat Chimaev (-300) vs. Kamaru Usman
In the co-main event, I’m fading the short-notice fighter once again. Not only is this last minute for Kamaru Usman, but it is also his middleweight debut. And there are rumors he hurt his knee in the open workouts (he has bad knees, regardless). I’ll go with the bigger, younger, and (probably) healthy fighter here in Khamzat Chimaev.
Johnny Walker (+295) vs. Magomed Ankalaev
I’m taking a big swing on a dog in the third fight from the top. Johnny Walker is way bigger than Magomed Ankalaev (three inches taller, seven inches of reach). And he’s a very dangerous striker, with 16 of his 21 professional wins coming via knockout. Having refined his game and taken the craziness out of the mix, Walker has won three straight fights. He’s worth a roll of the dice.
Trevor Peek (-155) vs. Mohammad Yahya
Next up is the wildman who throws standing hammer fists, Trevor Peek. He’s facing newcomer Mohammad Yahya, who I don’t think will be able to withstand Peek’s crazy striking. Peek originally opened here as a dog, so to get it back to a better number, splash a little on Peek via T/KO at +105. Sadly, there is no prop bet for Win via Hammer Fist.
Viktoriia Dudakova (-500) vs. Jinh Yu Frey
Having lost three straight fights, veteran Jinh Yu Frey is now being served up to a young prospect the UFC apparently has high hopes for, Viktoriia Dudakova. Dudakova is a perfect 7-0, has finished six of those fights, and is not only bigger than Frey but is also 14 years younger. Dudakova inside the distance at +150 is the path to get a playable line here.
If you’d like even more information on UFC 294, be sure to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast. The guys are dropping four episodes weekly to make you the smartest guy at the bar.
