Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 6 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. How do the Steelers perform as home dogs? Does an overtime game affect the next game?
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet! In last week’s article, the trends to bet came through as we went a perfect 5-0. Let’s go 5-0 again! I’m rolling with a bunch of favorites this week.
2023 NFL Week 6 Trends To Bet And Stats To Back
Carolina Panthers @ Miami Dolphins (-14): Dolphins Too Much?
It’s no secret that these two teams are basically polar opposites. The Panthers can’t win a game, while the Dolphins offense has been historically good. So what will happen when the two face off in Miami? Close your eyes, Panther fans. This Dolphins team may be too much for the Panthers to handle. If the Lions could win by 18 last week, it seems reasonable to think the Dolphins will as well. Let’s look at some NFL Week 6 trends to bet for this game.
The Panthers are 4-11 against the spread (ATS) in October in the last 15 games. That’s four years, only covering the spread four times in October. It’s also no secret that head Coach Frank Reich hasn’t been great. He’s started the season 0-4-1 against the spread. The Panthers are also 2-8 ATS when going on the road after a loss to an NFC team.
Let’s focus on some positives. For the Dolphins, anyway. They’re 6-0-1 ATS against teams that are on a four-game losing streak. In case you didn’t catch on, that’s the Panthers. They’re also 11-2-2 ATS against poor rushing defenses. The Panthers are 26th in yards allowed per game, while the Dolphins are 1st in rushing yards per game. They’ll have to adjust without De’Von Achane for this game, but I don’t think it’s going to be a problem. The system is hot, and the Dolphins are on a roll.
The Pick: Dolphins (-14)
Arizona Cardinals @ LA Rams (-4.5): Rams Ready For A Run?
Let’s talk about another team that’s not been good this year – the Arizona Cardinals. They go on the road in a divisional game to face off against the LA Rams. The Rams got Cooper Kupp back, and it didn’t look like he missed a step. Sure, they lost against a really good Eagles team. However, I think they’re primed for some offensive explosion and to start a run.
The Cardinals have been feisty all year. However, that hasn’t turned into winning many games. The Cardinals don’t play very well against Sean McVay anyways. In fact, they’re 2-11 ATS when facing McVay’s Rams. The Cardinals are also 4-11 ATS when the over/under is set at 45 or more. The total this week is 48.5. As feisty and competitive as the Cardinals have been in games, I don’t have a good feeling for them in this one.
The Rams, on the other hand, also have some trends backing their play. After an NFC loss, they’re 8-2 ATS in the next games. They tend to bounce back well after a loss, which they just had last weekend against the Eagles. They also do well facing Arizona after a loss, where they are 5-2 ATS. While the NFL Week 6 trends to bet aren’t as strong on this one, sometimes you just have to go with your gut and with the better team.
The Pick: Rams (-4.5)
Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ New York Jets: Which Team Will Fly Higher?
Let’s talk about another game that has a team that everything has gone right for and a team that can’t catch a break, minus the one in Rodgers’ Achilles. The Jets have a strong defense, something the Eagles were known for last year. The Eagles defense is starting to adapt to the injuries that have piled up, but they’ve still not been as dominant as they were last year. Are there some NFL Week 6 trends to bet help us in this game? Let’s take a look.
It won’t take an expert gambler to point out that the Jets have been bad against the run, and the Eagles are very good at running the ball. However, there are some trends we can look at as well. For whatever reason, before teams play Miami, they play very well against the Jets. The Jets are 2-8 ATS in the last 10 when facing teams that are going to be playing Miami the next week. The Jets also struggle against the NFC. They are 8-17 ATS at home against NFC teams in the last 25 games. Last, they struggle against teams after playing Denver. They’re 2-5 ATS in the last seven.
The Eagles have some NFL Week 6 trends that are helping make a case for them as well. They’re 17-7 ATS vs. the AFC East in the last 24 games. Ten of those 17 games they covered were on the road as well. They’re also good against teams that just played Denver, coming in at 5-2 ATS. The Eagles are also good at covering when they’re favored by seven or less. In fact, they’ve covered 10 of the last 15 games in which they’ve been favored by seven or less.
The Pick: Eagles (-7)
Detroit Lions (-3) @ Tampa Bay Bucs: Battle Of One Loss Teams
I don’t think many people would have guessed this would be a battle of one loss teams. The Lions had high expectations coming into the season. However, the Bucs did not. While the Bucs are coming off of a bye, the Lions continue to play hard and stay red hot. Their only loss is against the Seahawks. Tampa’s only loss is to the Eagles. So, what NFL Week 6 trends to bet on will help make our decisions?
Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have proven to be very good against the spread. They’ve covered the spread 13 games in the last 15. They’re also 6-0-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. After beating an NFC team, they’re also 7-0 ATS when playing another NFC team right away. The Lions are also 6-1 ATS against teams that struggle to run the ball. The Bucs are 25th ranked in rushing yards per game, meaning they fall into that category.
The Bucs, on the other hand, have a lot of trends against them. First, they struggle in October. They’re 6-17-2 in the last 25 October games. That dates back over five years. The Bucs also struggle against strong rushing defenses, only covering two of the last ten games. The Lions are ranked third in yards allowed per game. While the Bucs tend to play well after a bye, they aren’t particularly good at covering the spread at home. In fact, in the last 15 games, they’re 4-10-1 ATS.
The Pick: Lions (-3)
San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) @ Cleveland Browns: Can Anybody Stop The Niners?
The 49ers are the hottest team in the NFL right now. The Browns have a quarterback who’s being paid a guaranteed 250 million, but even after being medically cleared didn’t suit up last week. He’s being called questionable for this game. The line continues to grow for this as there are questions about whether Watson will play. However, it doesn’t matter to me, as we will see some NFL Week 6 trends to bet pointing right to the 49ers winning regardless.
Let’s start with the Browns. While they’ve improved this year, they don’t play well against good teams. They are currently 7-23-3 ATS against teams that have won four or more games in a row. In other words, they don’t tend to put ends to win streaks. They’re also 16-38-3 ATS when playing teams that are good at running the ball. Just in case you’ve been living under a rock, the 49ers are good at running the ball. They are third in rushing yards per game. Finally, the Browns don’t do well against the NFC West, covering just three of the last 15 games.
The 49ers have been dominating with Brock Purdy as quarterback. He’s 10-2 ATS as a starter. The 49ers are also 13-2 in the last 15 games as a favorite. When they’re favorites of seven points or less, they are even better, covering the spread seven times in the last seven games as favorites. Talk about “lucky number seven”. They also seem to play well right after playing well. After games where they had a +2 turnover margin, they’ve gone 7-0 ATS in the following games. They exceeded the +2 turnover margin against the Cowboys.
The Pick: 49ers (-6.5)
