Torn on which way to lean on the games this weekend? Want to go less with your gut and more with statistics? We break down five games where you can take a look at NFL Week 5 trends to bet and stats to back! Let’s dive into the numbers, look at the historical data, and see what situations are relevant this week. How do the Steelers perform as home dogs? Does an overtime game affect the next game?
We’ll look at all this stuff and more! Make sure to check back each week as we keep track of betting the trends record, as well as give new trends and games to bet!
2023 NFL Week 5 Trends To Bet And Stats To Back
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers: Tomlin As A Dog
There are multiple stats backing Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers as a dog. Tomlin has covered the spread 71% of the time as a dog. However, that number jumps to 82% as a home dog. It’s also important to point out that Tomlin is 8-1 against the spread when coming off of a loss. They just received a big beat down from the Houston Texans in Houston. Now, they return home in a division rivalry against the Ravens. So is this one of the NFL Week 5 trends to bet?
I know the fact that they’re starting Mitch Trubisky is making you nervous. I completely get that. However, they’re also winning 64.4% of games in October. The Ravens have already lost a game as favorites this year, two weeks ago against the Colts. Until last week, their offense had looked quite inefficient. I also think there’s a game plan Tomlin can cook up that can take advantage of their defense.
Back to the fact that they’re starting Mitchell Trubisky in place of the injured Kenny Pickett. Don’t let that fool you into thinking they can’t win as a dog. Let’s rewind back to NFL Week 1 last year when Trubisky was still the starter. As an underdog, he helped lead the Steelers over the Bengals 23-20. The Steelers are currently four-point underdogs. This and Tomlin’s record is a trend, I’m betting.
The Pick: Steelers (+4)
Philadelphia Eagles @ LA Rams: Trends After An Overtime Win?
This is an interesting game to track for several reasons. First, the Rams have stayed more competitive than I think people expected them to. Second, The Eagles just came off a tough divisional battle against the Commanders that took them into overtime. So, are there NFL Week 5 trends to bet following the overtime game?
Maybe it’s just the Eagles, but they excel against the spread when going on the road after an overtime win. That’s an unusual stat and one that feels like you almost have to follow. They’re 8-1 against the spread (ATS) when going on the road after an overtime game. It’s like they carry the adrenaline from that overtime game right into the next. 8-1 is an 88.9% hit rate that’s paid a nice profit. Will it happen again as they make the long road travel game to LA?
There are multiple other trends and stats to back a bet for the Eagles up. The Eagles are 8-2 ATS versus the Rams in the last ten matchups. The last time these two teams played was in 2020, and the Rams won 37-19, which hits another NFL Week 5 trend to bet. The Eagles are 7-3 ATS when revenging a loss. They also happen to play very well after playing Washington. In fact, they’re 26-17 ATS the game after playing against Washington. The Eagles are not only a better team but have the trends and stats to back the bet.
The Pick: Eagles (-4)
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts: Look Ahead Spot For Tennessee?
As we continue along in our NFL Week 5 trends to bet, we have to take a look at this Titans-Colts game. The Titans just got a big win at home against the Bengals. Meanwhile, the Colts lost a close game in overtime against the Rams at home. Which stats and trends will help us make a bet in this one? The one that jumps out most to me is how the Titans do in games before playing Baltimore.
In the last ten games, the Titans are 2-8 ATS in a game before playing Baltimore. That’s 1-8 if you only focus on the road games. For some reason, this team just can’t help but look ahead to matchups with the Ravens. They play poorly the week before, though, like this Week 5 game against the Colts. That’s not the only trend backing the Colts’ odds. The Titans are also 4-11 ATS against teams that don’t pass the ball as often. Last week, Richardson only completed 11 passes.
There are a bunch of different stats and trends backing the Colts against a defense like the Colts. The Colts’ defense is checking enough boxes to be put into multiple categories, such as resilient, strong, and solid. That’s okay, though, because, for whatever reason, the Colts thrive against those defenses. In fact, they’re 37-12-1 ATS versus teams with a strong defense. Watch for Anthony Richardson to utilize his legs against this strong Titans defense and the Titans to start slow while they look ahead to the Ravens.
The Pick: Colts (-1)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Minnesota Vikings: Cousins Comes Up Short In Shootouts?
The Chiefs survived a close game against the Jets on Sunday night. Playing against the Jets takes us right into one of the NFL Week 5 trends to bet. The Chiefs are 7-2 ATS in the last nine games after playing the Jets. Something about playing the Jets must get them ready for the next team. They’re also very good in October. In fact, in the last 15 games the Chiefs have played in October, they’ve covered the spread 12 times.
In Week 5, the Chiefs head to Minnesota to take on the Vikings. The Chiefs are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the NFC. Very few NFC teams have been able to keep up with their high-powered offense. This year, their defense is also playing very well. It may surprise you, or maybe it won’t, but there are a bunch of trends going against the Vikings as well. In their last seven games at home, after beating an NFC opponent, they’re 0-7 ATS.
The other thing that jumped out at me is an over/under trend. The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in games that have an over/under set at 45 or higher. As good as their offense is at padding stats, they apparently can’t keep up with high-powered offenses. The game has an over/under of 53.
The Pick: Chiefs (-5)
Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers: Dallas Bad After Blowout Wins?
The last game on our NFL Week 5 trends to bet is the Cowboys-49ers game. The Cowboys are coming off a blowout win over the Patriots, winning 38-3. The 49ers, on the other hand, took care of business against division opponent Arizona, beating them 35-16. This has the potential to be the game of the week, and there are plenty of trends to look at. Will they sway your pick?
First, the Cowboys don’t do well after blowout wins. They’re 1-6 ATS in the last seven after a blowout win. If you extend that to on the road after a blowout win, it’s even worse, where they’re 9-17 ATS. The Cowboys also struggle against good teams.
They are 19-30-1 ATS when playing teams with a winning record. Does Dallas have what it takes to beat a team with a winning record? The last two trends to look at involve playing the NFC West, where Dallas is 4-11 ATS in the last 15 games. They are also 5-10 ATS on a grass field, which the 49ers have.
The 49ers are 8-2 ATS with Purdy as quarterback in the last 10 games. They’re 7-0 ATS with Purdy as quarterback at home. He’s been very efficient and has done an excellent job covering spreads for them.
They’re also 10-0 at home against NFC teams, 12-3 ATS as favorites, 13-2 ATS on grass fields, and let’s not forget, 13-2 ATS at home with Shanahan as the coach in the last 15 home games. The Cowboys may have looked good last week, but this is a completely different team than the Patriots.
The Pick: 49ers (-3.5)
