Week 5 of the NFL season is already here! Things are not exactly as we expected, and after four weeks, we only have three undefeated teams left (Eagles, Dolphins, 49ers). We also have only two winless teams (Panthers and Bears). The Bears currently hold the top two picks in the 2024 NFL Draft. The Colts and the Buccaneers are currently leading their divisions. Last week, we went 10-6. Here are my Week 5 NFL Picks and Betting Trends!
Reminder: Bye Weeks (Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Chargers, Cleveland Browns, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
Week 5 NFL Picks of the Week:
Survival Pool Pick: Miami Dolphins
Underdog of the Week: Houston Texans +2.5
Lock of the Week: Kansas City -5.5
Go here for more free NFL picks!
Week 5 NFL Picks and NFL Betting Trends
Thursday at 8:15 PM EST
Chicago Bears (+6) @ Washington Commanders
Bears Moneyline: +210
Commanders Moneyline: -250
My Pick: Washington Commanders
The Under in this game is at 44.5, which is a bet I like. This is based on Chicago’s 27 total points on the road this year and the Commanders going under in 20 of their last 25 games. The Bears are coming off a big loss, and the Commanders hung in there with the Eagles. But this is a short week, and these two teams are averaging 40.1 points combined this season. I am also taking Washington to win this one. Washington has the edge in all three phases and should be able to handle the Bears on Thursday night.
NFL Thursday Night Football: Bears vs. Commanders Picks + DFS Preview https://t.co/y2RKjKrpYr
— NFL Gambling Podcast (@SGPNNFL) October 4, 2023
Sunday at 9:30 AM EST
Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) @ Buffalo Bills
Jaguars Moneyline: +250
Bills Moneyline: -230
My Pick: Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills just came off of an impressive win against the red-hot Miami Dolphins. Buffalo has the disadvantage of having to travel to London. The Jaguars have been there for a week. They beat the Falcons handily in Andy’s bedroom this Sunday. The Bills are undefeated when covering a spread of 5.5 or more. Also, Buffalo has covered the spread three out of the last five games.
One thing that has helped Buffalo out is their fast starts. Buffalo is averaging 8.5 points per game in the first quarter this season. Their defense has been much improved under Sean McDermott. The Jaguars looked much better last week, but they have been off to a slow start. Buffalo is the superior team, and they will assert themselves in London.
Sunday at 1 PM EST
New York Giants (+11) @ Miami Dolphins
Giants Moneyline: +425
Dolphins Moneyline: -550
My Pick: Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins offense and the New York Giants offense are polar opposites right now. The Dolphins’ #1 offense is two weeks off of dropping 70 points, and the Giants haven’t put up close to 70 points all year. Miami’s hot streak ended in Buffalo last week, but their offense played well. The Giants just got embarrassed, and their offense can’t get off the ground due to their offensive line.
The Giants are not only down three of their starting offensive lineman, they have been without Saquon Barkley. Even if everyone shows up to the party, the Giants are outmatched heavily. Give the Giants the 10.5 points, and I will still be putting my money on the Miami Dolphins.
New Orleans Saints (+1) @ New England Patriots
Saints Moneyline: +105
Patriots Moneyline: -120
My Pick: New Orleans Saints
Take the under in this one. The Saints have gone under in all but one of their last fourteen games. New Orleans struggled last week, and Derek Carr’s shoulder was a big part of that. Carr gets one more week to get right, and the Patriots just lost two big names on their defense. New England has the 30th-ranked offense in the league. The Saints have kept their opponents to under 20 points in 11 of their last 12 games. Take the Under and take the Saints!
Baltimore Ravens (-4) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Ravens Moneyline: -190
Steelers Moneyline: +164
My Pick: Baltimore Ravens
This is the lowest total on the slate at 38.5, and we are expecting Pittsburgh to start Mitch Trubisky. The Ravens have only hit their over in five of their last 19 games. I am surprised it is only -4 points. I would lock this one in as soon as possible. Trubisky struggled last year, and Diontae Johnson is also out. Baltimore is banged up as well, but they will remain the leaders of the North after this Week 5 matchup.
#NFL Week 5 Sharp Betting Splits Early Look
🏈 45% bets, 80% money on Cardinals +3 vs. Bengals
🏈 41% bets, 95% money UNDER Cowboys vs. 49ers
🏈 58% bets, 97% money OVER Broncos vs. Jets
🏈 50% bets, 90% money OVER Packers vs. Raiders
🏈 34% bets, 97% money Cardinals +130… https://t.co/UfvLx5v5Eb pic.twitter.com/vR1bz3vsS3
— Odds and Picks (@OddsandPicks) October 4, 2023
Houston Texans (+2) @ Atlanta Falcons
Texans Moneline: +112
Falcons Moneyline: -124
My Pick: Houston Texans
The Texans are throwing the ball at the highest rate in the league, and the Falcons run it at the highest rate. We will see which prevails, but what we do know is that the Under is pretty safe for Atlanta. The Falcons have hit the under in ten of their last 13 games. Their run-first, ball-control game has them averaging 15.5 points per game. Houston somehow is the underdog, like 90% of betters. I will take the Texans and the extra 2 points.
Carolina Panthers (+10) @ Detroit Lions
Panthers Moneyline: +350
Lions Moneyline: -425
My Pick: Detroit Lions
Detroit is coming off an impressive win and another win against the spread. The Lions have failed to cover in only two of their last fourteen games. Carolina is struggling, and Bryce Young is still trying to figure it out. Detroit’s defensive line is a massive advantage in this game and will carry the Lions to victory. Give me ten points, and the Lions to cover this one.
Tennessee Titans (+2) @ Indianapolis Colts
Titans Moneyline: -102
Colts Moneyline: -110
My Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis is averaging over 24 points a game under new head coach Shane Steichen. We could see some movement if Jonathan Taylor is expected to suit up, but I am taking the Colts to cover. The Titans have failed to cover their 4th quarter total in all but two of their last 17 games. Tennessee is struggling, and the Colts are currently leading the division. Give me the Colts, the points, and the under in this one.
Sunday at 4:05 PM EST
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals
Bengals Moneyline: -160
Cardinals Moneyline: +140
My Pick: Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati is on upset alert in this battle over overachievers vs. underachievers. Joe Burrow did say that his calf felt better after Week 4 than after any game this year. Arizona is 3-1 against the spread this season, and I am taking them to pull off the upset. Joe Burrow and the offense have looked broken. Now Tee Higgins is hurt. Arizona is playing hard, and their offense is playing well. Giving me the points and put it on the Cardinals
Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5) @ Los Angeles Rams
Eagles Moneyline: -215
Rams Moneyline: +180
My Pick: Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles’ games have hit the over in almost 62% of the time over the last two seasons. Both teams have good offenses, and this could be a sneaky game. Philadelphia just took the Commanders to overtime and are not as good as last year. But they are still a good team, and both offenses can put up points. The Rams are 3-0-1 against the spread this year, and they will keep this close. Give me the Eagles moneyline, the over, and the Rams to cover!
Sunday at 4:25 PM EST
New York Jets (+1.5) @ Denver Broncos
Jets Moneyline: +108
Broncos Moneyline: -120
My Pick: New York Jets
The Jets looked much better last week and competed with the Chiefs. Denver made a huge comeback and avoided 0-4 by defeating the Bears. Both teams are struggling this year after having some hope this offseason. The difference in this game is the defense, and the Jets have a good one. The Broncos do not, and the Broncos offense has not improved much with Payton. Denver has covered the spread in three of the last 17. No thanks. I am putting my money on the J-E-T-S, Jets, Jets, Jets!
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.0) @ Minnesota Vikings
Chiefs Moneyline: -220
Vikings Moneyline: +190
My Pick: Kansas City Chiefs
The Minnesota Vikings used all their luck last year in close games, and they are regressing hard! They avoided 0-4 last week, but they still found a way to make it interesting. Minnesota’s games have gone over in 11 of their last 15 games, and they get Kansas City this week. The Chiefs have looked much better since Week 1 and will cover this one easily. This is just a bad matchup for the Minnesota Vikings on defense and on the offensive line.
Sunday at 8:20 PM EST
Dallas Cowboys (+4) @ San Francisco 49ers
Cowboys Moneyline: +158
49ers Moneyline: -170
My Pick: San Francisco 49ers
The Dallas Cowboys looked unstoppable, and then they lost to the Cardinals. They had several linemen injured, and then they lost Trevon Diggs for the season. It seemed as if Dallas’ season started to crumble, but they looked great against the Patriots. They are still banged up, and the 49ers might be the best team in football. A potential playoff preview and a good measuring stick for Dallas.
Brock Purdy is now 9-0 as a regular-season quarterback. San Francisco has won 70% of their last 17 games by 15 points or more. They are just too good, and I don’t think Dallas can do enough to cover in this one. They are banged up, and the 49ers are just on fire.
Monday at 8:15 PM EST
Green Bay Packers (-1) @ Las Vegas Raiders
Packers Moneyline: -130
Raiders Moneyline: +112
My Pick: Green Bay Packers
The Packers have covered the spread three out of four games this year. Jordan Love, and the offense has been much better than advertised. They have been battling injuries all season and really needed this mini-bye week following a Thursday night game. Green Bay’s defense has played really well this year, and their offense should show out in a plus matchup. Aaron Jones and Christian Watson are expected to be ready. Go, Pack, Go!
