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2023-2024 NBA MVP Award – Michael Jordan Trophy Best Bets & Analysis
Historic Factors & How To Bet MVP
Over the last few seasons, there has not been a ton of parody involving this award. In fact, it has been pretty much decided a little after the trade deadline in February. There was a little movement and debate last year, but Embiid ended up winning by more than 200 votes.
It has not been a competitive race (voting perspective) since the 2006-2007 season, which was decided by less than 130 votes. Russell Westbrook won by around 135 votes, but what he was doing that season was historic, and anyone with two eyes (or four like me) could see who was winning that award.
In the last 10 years, there have been seven winners of the award. Three players went back to back, and in a four-year stretch, we had two players (Giannis & Jokic) win twice.
The formula is simple for me when handicapping this market. First, you want to identify the league’s top 10-20 players (it’s a lot easier than you think). Second, go through those players and cross out anyone who would not be on a contending team. The last 10 winners have been on teams with an average win total of around 57.
Lastly, ask yourself which player has the highest offensive ceiling and can impact the game in more ways than the others. The last 10 winners have a points-per-game average of 29.1, so whoever you feel can’t score 27.5 or better should be marked off. After this process, we should be down to a handful of ELITE players. After going through this process, let’s move forward to see who I have as my top two bets.
Jayson Tatum – Boston Celtics +1900
The last Celtic to win the MVP was Larry Bird in 1986, which just so happened to be his third in a row. Tatum checks all of the boxes and has been in the hunt for the award for the last few years. He finished in the top five last year and sixth the previous year. In the second half of last year, he was one of the more dominant players in the league. The East is a two-horse race with Boston and Milwaukee, and if the Celtics want to go to the next level, it will be behind a monster year from Tatum.
The addition of Kristaps Porzingis is big for Tatum. It allows him to play his natural position of small forward and be more on the perimeter. During their postseason run, Tatum did it all offensively, including leading the team in rebounding. Porzingis is not the most dominant inside threat, but he allows Tatum to have more space to operate offensively and help with rebounding.
He gets a full off-season under Mazzula, who will be a million times more prepared than last year. That is an advantage for Tatum, and I think he is in line for a big season, hopefully, good enough to bring the first MVP trophy back to Boston in over 30 years.
Anthony Davis – Los Angeles Lakers +3500
We all know the story and narrative with Davis. How long before he gets hurt, and how bad is it when he does? Those are the questions that nobody knows the answer to and why his odds are not shorter.
The new NBA rules require a games-played threshold of 65. In his 11-year career, he has gone over 65 games five times but none with the Lakers. That is the biggest obstacle causing this big ticket not to cash. However, there are some different parameters this season with this new revamped roster.
The Lakers added three big men to the roster, which allows AD to play more power forward. This allows AD not to be in the paint so much and be at a higher risk of injury. AD also provides something that not a lot of MVP candidates have outside of Giannis, and that would be his dominance on the defensive end.
As you read (if you haven’t, please do so) yesterday in the coach of the year article, I am high on the Lakers. All of the stars are aligned for a monster year from AD on both sides of the ball IF he can actually stay healthy.