At the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, we are here to cover the NFL from every angle possible. We are covering your fantasy football needs with nine different fantasy football shows. Of course, it will help you make it here to cover the NFL gambling. I have already told you what safe bets to make this season. Today, we will discuss the top 10 long-shot bets to make this NFL season.
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10 Long Shot Bets for the 2023 NFL Season
Below, we will talk about 10 dark horses to win these long-shot future bets. The definition of long-shot will be a player that is outside of the top 10 best odds. These are all season-long bets from awards to stat leaders and other popular futures categories.
Most Regular Season Passing Yards: Geno Smith +3500
The Seattle Seahawks traded away Russell Wilson and had zero expectations for 2022. Even the U.S. Open was even taking shots at the Seahawks. Geno Smith came out of nowhere to lead the team to the playoffs. He led the NFL in completion percentage and was rewarded with a contract extension. Geno was also rewarded with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the first round of the NFL draft this year.
Smith-Njigba was the consensus number one wide receiver in the draft. He comes from Ohio State, who has been an NFL stud wide receiver factory as of late. Jaxon was the star wide receiver while playing on the same field as Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. Now, he gets to play alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks’ passing game is going to be strong this year. Geno Smith, who was 8th last season, is the biggest beneficiary.
Most Regular Season Passing Touchdowns: Trevor Lawrence +3000
Trevor Lawrence made a huge jump in development in 2022. Lawrence had career highs in all major categories, and we started to see his potential. The team has added all-pro wide receiver Calvin Ridley and other pieces this offseason. He is poised to break out and was already 11th in passing touchdowns in 2022.
Lawrence plays against the Colts twice, the Texans twice, and the Titans twice in the pitiful AFC South. This is his second season in the Doug Pederson offense, and this team is loaded on offense. We have seen leaps in production for a quarterback in year three and when their team gets them a new weapon. This is going to be another example.
Does the weakness of the AFC South provide a path to MVP for Trevor Lawrence?@GDAWG5000, @wheatonbrando and @BrendanGlasheen broke down their best bets for the NFL awards on “The Action Network Podcast” ✅
Full episode: https://t.co/kX3z8hXfKU pic.twitter.com/NCED4PLMZw
— Action Network Podcasts (@ActionPodcasts) August 30, 2023
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards: J.K. Dobbins +3500
Talent has never been the issue. It is the health. We saw J.K. Dobbins struggle last season coming back from his knee surgery. After the second surgery, we saw the old J.K. Dobbins back to form. In his final four games, he had 57 carries and rushed for 397 yards. That is almost seven yards a carry and 100 yards a game.
Per Playerprofiler, Dobbins ranked top 10 in true yards per carry (5.2), yards per touch (5.7), juke rate 2nd (43.4%), and breakaway run rate 3rd (10.3%). Dobbins is one of the best pure-runners in the league. Todd Monken coordinated one of the best rushing attacks in the country last year at Georgia. J.K. Dobbins is set up to break out in 2023.
Most Regular Season Rushing Touchdowns: David Montgomery +2500
Last season, we saw Jamaal Williams lead the league in rushing touchdowns. Williams is out of town, and David Montgomery is in a similar role with the same play-callers. Montgomery is paired with Jahmyr Gibbs, who does not profile as a goal line back with his 199 lb frame. This is a massive, dominating offensive line, and the Lions are one of the top offenses in the league.
I was surprised that Montgomery was not higher on the list. He doesn’t have a rushing quarterback who is stealing goal-line touches like some of these other options. This team also doesn’t have a lot of red-zone targets from the pass-catching positions. Last year, Williams scored 17 regular season touchdowns and led the NFL in goal-line carries. Montgomery is set up for success this season, specifically for rushing touchdown production.
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards: Jaylen Waddle +3000
Jaylen Waddle finished 7th in the league in 2022, with Tyreek Hill finishing second. They both did this with Tua missing multiple games and the Dolphins having three different quarterbacks play in 2022. Waddle has rare speed and is in an offense that allows him to do damage after the catch. Even with Tyreek Hill, he is amongst the league leaders in receiving yards. He had over 1,000 yards as a rookie and finished last season with 1,359.
If something were to happen to Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle could go nuclear. With Hill, Waddle was a little over 400 yards behind Justin Jefferson, who led the league in receiving yards in 2022. The team also went out and got Mike White as some insurance for Tua Tagovailoa if he missed any games.
Most Regular Season Receiving Touchdowns: CeeDee Lamb +2500
Ceedee Lamb broke out in 2022, and he finished 7th in the league in receiving touchdowns with nine. The team has moved on from Kellen Moore and Ezekiel Elliot. This team ran the ball a lot in the red zone, particularly at the goal line. Last season, Ezekiel Elliot had 12 rushing touchdowns. We don’t expect Tony Pollard to get the same type of usage at the goal line.
Lamb is in a contract year, and we expect big things from him in 2023. The team added Brandin Cooks, who could take some targets and yards away from Lamb. They also moved on from Dalton Schultz. Schultz has had 13 touchdowns in the last two seasons. Lamb should be inside the top ten for odds in this category.
Ceedee Lamb solidified himself as the #3 WR in dynasty after an impressive 2022 season, Finished Top 10 in
☑️Targets
☑️Target Share
☑️Target Rate
☑️Receiving Yards
☑️Receptions
☑️Yards After Catch
☑️TDs
☑️Points per Game
☑️EPA
☑️Route Win Rateand MANY more advanced stats pic.twitter.com/41RXzTrLFl
— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) August 27, 2023
Offensive Player of the Year: Cooper Kupp +3000
Cooper Kupp recently won the MVP award and last season was on pace to repeat. In the eight games that Kupp finished last season, he had at least eight targets in all but one. Kupp also had a game where he was targeted 12, 14, 15, and 19 times. He is a target hog and was on pace for 153 receptions, 1,728 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns.
Those numbers seem unrealistic and unrepeatable. Kupp had 145 receptions, 1,947 yards, and 16 touchdowns in the regular season in 2021. Kupp, in this McVay offense with Matthew Stafford, has been pretty unreal. There will be a strong case for him to win this award as well as any offensive or receiving award.
MVP: Justin Jefferson +10000
Justin Jefferson has quickly become the best wide receiver in football. Last year, he led the league in both receptions and receiving yards in 2021. He won the Offensive Player of the Year award in 2022. He finished 5th in MVP votes as well. The MVP has notoriously been a quarterback award.
We have seen other positions win it, Cooper Kupp and Todd Gurley most recently. Jefferson is obviously the most valuable player on this team. Kirk Cousins is there, but Jefferson is the horse that leads the cart in Minnesota.
Super Bowl Winner: Jacksonville Jaguars +3000
The Jacksonville Jaguars were the most improved team in 2022. Doug Pederson did a masterful job at turning that ship around. The team won a playoff game and unfortunately ran into the Kansas Chiefs on their way to winning a Super Bowl. The AFC is a gauntlet and will be tough for any team.
The AFC also will beat itself up, and the Jaguars are heavy favorites to get into the tournament. The division they are in allows them to get a pretty easy path to be in the playoffs. This also gives them a good chance of being one of the top seeds in the division. The Jets and Bills are in a very competitive division. We could see the same with Cincinnati and Baltimore.
