The best part of dynasty fantasy football is that there is year-round trading. Contending teams are trying to add that championship piece. Rebuilding teams are trying to auction off their assets to the highest bidder. There are a lot of tools out there with trade charts, trade analyzers, and different ways to figure out the value.
Some people like to use startups to help measure value. You can see where players are going on average and who is going around the same value. The last thing you want to do is make that trade, and the group chat explodes with laughter at your expense.
For these Dynasty Price Checks, I typically look at the current Expert Consensus Rankings. I will find where the player is and start polls five or ten spots ahead of them. Then go down the list until I am now five or ten spots below them. This gives us an active range as well as can show us if the players are close or far apart in value.
That is where you can start looking at what I need to add to either side. Especially in situations where you think the players are close to equal, but the public favors the other. Getting a player you value close to equal to another player plus a pick or player is how you build dynasties. Now let’s look at some of these results.
All over these price check polls had over 2,000 votes, and some had over 4,000.
Trade Tip
It is important to do your homework and make it easy for your trade partner. Don’t just put a player on the trade block and expect everyone to come running to you with offers. Typically it just causes more people to throw players on the trade block and pop up their own for sale sign.
I would look for teams that have needs that match mine. You have QB depth and need a TE. I have TE depth and need a QB. Let’s talk. I am also, looking at those who are selling if I am buying or buying if I am selling. Be active in the chat, but also be active in the DMs. Building relationships will help you get the deals done and help you beat the others trying to make deals.
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Dynasty Price Check, Trade Values, and Superflex Dynasty ADP
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens – ADP: 1.06 (QB6)
Jackson was valued more than the 1.01 in superflex drafts, 69% to 31%. The recency bias is starting to wear off. Jackson is coming off as the QB6 right now. Jackson has disappointed fantasy managers, missing the fantasy football players two seasons in a row. His upside might be the highest in the league, and his value shows it. In the polls, he was coming in right behind Lawrence and Herbert.
He is currently being drafted ahead of Lawrence. Jackson was ahead of Fields in ADP and won the polls 70% to 30%. So if you want a younger layer, you could trade down to Fields or Richardson and get something added to do it. I like Jackson a lot, but I would prefer Lawrence and these trade-back options right now.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears – ADP: 1.10 (QB8)
Justin Fields was dead even at 50/50 with the 1.01. Which would you prefer? Fields showed a lot of improvement last year, and he really increased his value. The team added some offensive line help as well as added Chase Claypool and D.J. Moore via trade to help build around Fields. Last season, Fields went on a tear from Week 6-17 with nine out of ten QB1s finishes.
This included eight straight QB1 finishes that included two QB1 overall and five top-five finishes. During this time, Fields was rushing for a minimum of 60 yards a game and had seven games rushing for over 80 yards a game. The hope is that this is a Jalen Hurts type of career arc for Fields. Some naysayers will say, sell high.
Some are expected him to be even better now that he has D.J. Moore. I like Fields and think the price is right to acquire him right now. If you could trade back from Jackson to Fields or Lawrence, I would do that.
I think Justin Fields to DJ Moore can be a lethal combination this fall. @ChaBoyJRich thinks otherwise….
Y’all Buying or Selling this duo as a Top-10 combination in 2023? #WakeUp #Bears #FantasyFootball
📺 https://t.co/xfcYC3xzS0 pic.twitter.com/Kg9ISmDOQv
— Ray G (@RayGQue) June 29, 2023
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 2.01 (QB9)
Anthony Richardson dominated the dynasty price check thread results were very similar. Richardson landed right in between Justin Fields and Deshaun Watson. Richardson lost 30% to 70% against Fields, showing Fields is a tier above. Any trade down from Fields to Richardson would require more assets. Richardson was about even with Watson, with Richardson 53% to Watson 47%.
Who would you rather? Richardson won 72% to 28% to Dak. Dak could be a nice trade-back candidate. Get Dak plus for Richardson. The same could be said for Tua, Murray, Daniel Jones, or any of the rookie QBs. Anyone who has Richardson could cash in now and get a good value before he even plays.
Or you can hold on to the lottery ticket and hope for the big cash-in. I personally would cash in and trade down for some options that we have seen do it. Richardson is going ahead of Garrett Wilson. You could trade back and get Kyler plus more. He is already almost a first-round pick.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns – ADP: 2.02 (QB10)
Deshaun Watson is interesting as he is in the late QB1 range. Watson is the same age as Patrick Mahomes. He could be a buy-low opportunity if you can get past the off-the-field issues. Trading down from Jackson or Fields to get Watson Plus. Or just waiting in your drafts to get Watson in the second to pair with an elite WR?
We spoke with Michael F. Florio from the NFL Network, who thinks the Browns told him not to run. This offseason allowed Watson the opportunity to get familiar with the offense and try to get back to form. There is a clear tier break after Watson to Tua, Bryce, Stroud, and Daniel Jones. The current ADP suggests pairing Watson with Fields or Watson with Bijan or CeeDee. Getting Watson round two gives you options. I do think he is a trade target at his current cost.
Tua Tagovailoa: Miami Dolphins – ADP: 2.09.5 (QB13)
Tua’s current average draft position and his price check thread indicate that people are getting more confident in him. This is great for those who have Tua and are looking to move him. How comfortable are you with Tua’s medical? The price check thread has him as the QB3 in the 2023 rookie class behind Richardson and Young.
He is dominating Daniel Jones, Kirk Cousins, and guys like Jared Goff or Geno Smith in the threads. These are all some trade-down options if you are trying to move to Tua. It looks like you could get something decent plus, for example, he is at least 80% favored over the above players mentioned. Tua also might have some more firepower now if you wanted to trade up, using Tua plus something to move up into the Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields territory.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals – ADP: 2.09.75 (QB14)
Kyler Murray is becoming a buy-low and the perfect trade target for rebuilding teams. Again, timing is everything, and I might suggest waiting until mid-season. The price could be better if Murray ends up coming back and not playing well or if they were not to play him this season.
But I would check in on the price, and at QB14, it might be the time to strike. In the polls, Murray was ahead of every rookie QB after Richardson. He lost to Richardson, 56% to 44%. Murray was ahead of Tua, Dak, Watson, and Daniel Jones by a large margin. He lost to Fields and Jackson by a large number as well. Jackson was 92% to 8%. Fields was 65% to 35%. Any rebuilding team should target Murray at his current value. Do it if you are a contender and can afford to stash Murray with a late first.
Running Backs
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 4.02 (RB10)
Etienne is a polarizing player, and Tank Bigsby has added some questions. Etienne has seen a dip in value since the NFL Draft because of Bigsby. The polls have him very similar to his current ADP. Etienne was almost tied with both Jacobs and Stevenson at 53% vs 47%.
Etienne was almost 60% over Pollard, 70% over Walker, and 74% preferred him over Harris. He broke out last season but did slow down at the end of the season. This is something that people will point to as a concern.
The thought Is that Bigsby will take a lot of early down or goal-line work. He still has enough value because of the offense that he is on. You can still move him for a lot. Trading back and getting Pollard or Harris Plus is an option. He is also close enough that you could move him for Josh Jacobs or Rhamondre. I am moving on at his current cost. He has held enough value that you can still move up or back pretty easily.
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: 3.09 (RB9)
Harris became a punching bag last year, and a lot of it was deserved. Harris has been inefficient since entering the league. In Week 6, he had the plate removed from his leat, and his yards per carry went from 3.1 to 4.1 for the rest of the season. Jaylen Warren is scaring people off. I personally am not. This is a team that has typically relied on a bell cow and took Najee Round 1. I expect a healthy workload.
The poll results show that others are nervous about him. Harris is almost 70% behind Etienne and Jacobs. Players preferred over him are Pollard, Walker, Stevenson, and Chubb. If you are a fan of Dobbins or Javonte, those are great trade-down options, as they were only about 30% favored to Harris. Harris is already 25, and without the passing volume, he is a sell for me. If you can trade down to Tony Pollard and get something plus or Dobbins plus, I would do it.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots – ADP: 5.03 (RB11)
Stevenson came out to be worth around 1.07 in Superflex rookie drafts in the polls. He has done nothing, but help is valuable. The Patriots are a wildcard, and that will always scare people with him. Dalvin Cook’s rumors are still out there. Stevenson did dominate the polls and came in around RB9.
He was ahead of veterans like Ekeler and Chubb, but not by much. Stevenson was around the same value as Josh Jacobs, Najee Harris, or Tony Pollard. Stevenson dominated J.K. Dobbins, Javonte Williams, and Dameon Pierce by a wide Margin. Those could be trade-down targets if you are looking to get an RB plus something else. It would take at least a second-round pick to move from Stevenson to one of the top six dynasty RBs based on these results.
Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys – ADP: 5:05 (RB15)
Tony Pollard is finally getting his time to shine. The problem is that he is already 26, and he is coming off a broken leg. Pollard suffered a broken leg on January 23rd. He is expected to make a full recovery and be ready to go in Week 1. The Cowboys could still end up adding a veteran back, but he is expected to be the RB1.
There are very high expectations for him. Mike Clay projects him for around 300 touches. This would give him a top 6 PPR fantasy finish, according to Clay’s projections. The poll results for Pollard show some concern. Pollard was right behind Travis Etienne at 43% favored and Josh Jacobs at 60% favored.
Two guys in a similar range as trade options. Pollard was favored over Walker by 58%and Najee Harris by 63%. Austin Ekeler was favored by only 51% and Stevenson by 55% for other guys in his range. Pollard is a massive buy, even if Dallas brings in a change of pace back. He could be a top-ten back for the next two to three seasons.
J.K. Dobbins, Baltmore Ravens -ADP: 5.11 (RB13)
Dobbins has really not broken out yet. He shared the backfield and only had 134 attempts in his rookie season. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry and had nine touchdowns. The breakout seemed to be coming. He tore his ACL and missed all of 2021. In 2022, Dobbins returned to play and then had corrective surgery before returning again.
He finished the season strong, averaging just under seven yards per carry in the last four games of the season. Dobbins’ poll results show him as a good buy right now. Dobbins, at 24, was behind older backs, such as Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Nick Chubb, and Tony Pollard, in the polls.
If you have those players who are looking to get younger, Dobbins might be a trade-down option. He was favored equally to Javonte Williams. Dobbins was favored over second-year backs Dameon Pierce, James Cook, and Rachaad White by at least 20%. These might be trade-down options if you prefer them equal to or less than Dobbins.
Alexander Mattison – ADP: 8:08 (RB27)
Alexander Mattison, like Tony Pollard, has been waiting. At 25, he will get his shot to be the guy in the Minnesota Vikings backfield. Mattison signed a two-year contract with them, and now they have moved on from Dalvin Cook. Mattison beat out Cook in the polls, 55% to 45%.
He also beat out veterans James Conner, Alvin Kamara, and David Montgomery by 60%-70%. Mattison was within 5% of both Zach Charbonnet and Kendre Miller, who are late first or early second-round rookie picks. Mattison was ahead of Antonio Gibson by 70% and Khalil Herbert by almost 80%. Most Alexander Mattison managers have been waiting on this, but is this the time to sell? Right now, you could move Alexander Mattison for a late first.
You could move him for David Montgomery or D’Andre Swift, plus. Mattison should have nice value for the next two seasons and is worth holding on to for contenders. If not, he is definitely a sell candidate to cash in on this good fortune.
Wide Receivers
Treylon Burks, Tennesee Titans – ADP: 6.03 (WR28)
When Marcas Grant saw these results, he said, ” I had to catch my breath. I was shocked.” There is a lot of love for Treylon Burks on the street, and you can see it in the polls. Burks was favored over Christian Watson and Michael Pittman by 20%. He was also favored at 61% vs. Deebo and 55% vs. Jordan Addison. Burks was 59% preferred over Jerry Jeudy, 62% over Dotson, and 73% over Jameson Williams!
Burks was 70% over Quentin Johnston and Marquise Brown. Over 80% of people were taking Burks Over Pickens or Diontae Johnson. He was essentially worth a mid-first won overall rookie WRs, except for Jaxon Smith Njigba. What are your thoughts on these results?
My thoughts, I would sell based on people overvaluing the situation. We have seen players on bad offenses struggle even when they are the only option in town. He struggled in year one. His reception perception shows that he was good at three routes last year. This team could see a quarterback change, and there are a lot of variables here.
Calvin Ridley, Jacksonville Jaguars – ADP: 6.05 (WR30)
The Values of Calvin Ridley are all over the place. Some people still view him as a top-12 dynasty option, and some people have him closer to WR30. The players that were close but lost to Calvin were Amari Cooper, Jahan Dotson, and Diontae Johnson. Terry McLaurin, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison were favored slightly.
Ridley was heavily favored over Zay Flowers, George Pickens, Rashod Bateman, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, and Keenan Allen. The positive buzz from camp and the workout videos are helping people be more comfortable with drafting Calvin. Expect his ADP to rise, and his value will follow. At the current cost of WR30, I am buying all day with him being connected to Trevor Lawrence.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers – ADP: 7.01 (WR34)
Pickens had a lot of highlights and had 801 yards receiving last season. Pickens also had four touchdowns, four more than Diontae Johnson. We have been spoiled lately, but this is a really impressive rookie season. In comparison, Devonta Smith had 916 yards in his rookie season. Pickens looks to be the second option or at least the 1b in this offense.
Part of the concern with Pickens is the target volume that Diontae Johnson has gotten in this offense. The other part is the concern that Kenny Pickett can support a fantasy viable offense for two or even one WR. The polls show some concern for Pickens as he lost to his rookie classmates, Treylon Burks (73%), Jameson Williams (53%), and Jahan Dotson (60%).
Pickens lost to the 2023 rookies Quentin Johnston and Jordan Addison, but he was favored by 62% over Zay Flowers. Pickens is worth a late first-round pick in your 2023 drafts. I would move on. I like the player but not the situation, and I also think you can cash in on all of those highlights.
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts – ADP: 5:04 (WR21)
Pittman is holding value and was preferred over both Jordan Addison by 64%. Zay Flowers and Quentin Johnston also lost, with 73% preferring Pittman. Jaxon Smith-Njigba was favored by 80% over Pittman. Pittman was heavily favored over players like Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Jahan Dotson, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Godwin, and Jerry Jeudy.
These are good trade-down options if you want to move on from Pittman and get some additional assets. Anthony Richardson will start the majority or all of these games. This could create some inconsistent production for Pittman. Richardson is still young as a passer and is a rookie. Pittman is going for a mid-first right now and still holds a lot of value.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks – ADP: 10.03 (WR45)
Lockett is worth a mid-second Superflex Rookie pick right now. He won his polls vs. Jayden Reed and Marvin Mims at 80% in favor. Lockett had another great season. He ranked first in Open-Target %. Lockett was open on 67.5% of his routes. In comparison, Cooper Kupp was open on 60% of his routes.
He is older, and the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba has brought his value down. He lost his poll vs. Calvin Ridley, with 83% favoring Ridley and 89% favoring Amari Cooper. Veterans Keenan Allen (69%) and Mike Evans (57%) were favored over Lockett, but Lockett beat Mike Williams with 55% of the votes. Lockett’s value makes him a perfect trade target for a contender at a mid-late second.
Tight Ends
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears – ADP: 13.01 (TE17)
We thought Cole Kmet was going to have a great opportunity last year due to the lack of receiving options in Chicago. Kmet finished at the TE8 in PPR formats last year. However, he was pretty inconsistent. He started the season off with back to back zero points performances. Kmet also had 11 games with under 12 points, including seven single-digit performances.
The majority of his points were accrued in four big games last year. Kmet now has to compete with D.J. Moore on top of the other options. Not sure if we are going to see improvements. The polls reflect the same lack of confidence. Kmet is behind both Chig and Dulcich, as well as all three of the top rookie tight ends. Kmet is firmly outside of the top ten dynasty tight ends, and ECR reflects this as well with him being at TE16. He does appear like a buy-low. At this point, he is turning into a buy.
Chigoziem Okwonkwo, Tennesee Titans – ADP: 10.07 (TE11)
Chig is a very fun player and someone who is seeing a major rise in his dynasty value. I was surprised by his poll results. They were higher than I expected. Pat Freirmuth won the poll by 71% to 29%, and Darren Waller was preferred by 65% to 35%. Dulcich was preferred by 53% to 47%, and Njoku was preferred by 58% to 42%.
Both Michael Mayer and Sam LaPorta were 3-4% ahead of Chig in the votes. All these players appear to be just a tier above Chig. Chig was 50/50 with Evan Engram and was preferred by 77% of voters against Cole Kmet. This was really surprising to me. Chig is a good piece to use in a package to go get one of the top-tier tight ends. He is young and appears to be in line for a lot of targets in Tennesee. Tight Ends are hard to find, and it is hard to sell a potential breakout tight end.
Darren Waller, New York Giants – ADP: 9:10 (TE9)
Waller was traded this offseason, and all reports say he is expected to be the focal point of the Giants’ offense. Mike Clay has Waller projected to be the TE4 on the season. In April, he was going for a mid-second-round superflex rookie pick. Poll results show that Waller is not close to Kittle, Goedert, and Hockenson.
All of these polls had Waller voters at less than 20%. Pat Freiermuth was favored by 62% of voters and Dalton Kincaid by 61%. Waller was favored by 78% vs. Njoku and 82% over Evan Engram.
This gives you a good idea of where he stands and, if you want to trade up or down, where to go. Waller was preferred by roughly 75% of voters vs. all second-year tight ends. He was preferred by about 60% of voters over LaPorta and Mayer. Waller still has it, and Tight Ends are hard to find. I am buying it at this price.
