NFL Defensive Player Prop Bets

NFL Defensive Player Prop Bets
NFL Defensive Player Prop Bets

Time to crack open those Vegas odds on the 2023 NFL defensive player prop bets. From MVP, sacks, tackles, and more, we’re hitting all our favorites, setting our best bets off with a little history, statistics, and NFL player evaluations, and looking for the top bets and a few dark horses to match in each category. So let’s kick it all off with our NFL individual defensive player’s prop bets. Starting with the Defensive back Interception title’s best bet and, of course, the long shot.

2023 NFL Defensive Player Prop Bets

Defensive Interception Title

Top 10

  • J.C. Jackson – 4.5
  • Trevon Diggs – 4.5
  • Xavien Howard – 4.5
  • Justin Simmons – 3.5
  • Patrick Surtain – II 3.5
  • Quandre Diggs – 3.5
  • Kenny Moore – 3.5
  • Kevin Byard – 3.5
  • Malcolm Butler – 2.5
  • Jalen Ramsey – 2.5

My eyes are drawn directly to three players. All safeties may be bucking the odds of thinking cornerback. Looking back over history, they have dominated over the years up till recently. The little shift we see, though. It happens to coincide with the defensive rule changes over that same period. Though be it a small sample, that’s not all we got.

The first two are avoiding; back-to-back repeat winners don’t happen (often enough). That removes Micah Fitzpatrick and Justin Simmons, who both had six. With cornerbacks C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and Tariq Woolen in a four-way first-place title.

Since 2019, the Titans’ Kevin Byard has been hanging out toward the top except for one year of his career. Byard tied for second in 2019 (5 INT) and was out of contention in 2020 (1). He was bouncing back in 2021 (5), tieing for fourth in an outlier year when cornerbacks Trevon Diggs (11) and C.J. Jackson (8) both had exceptional seasons.

Then Byrd went modest in 2022 with a full 17 games and four interceptions. That was with no solid linebackers in front of him. Or any real higher-end talent around him in the secondary.

So if defensive lineman Justin Simmons can remain 100% and gets a little help, including the return of edge rusher Harold Laundry (IR), we could do worse than take that bet and make Kevin Byard our guy. And averages about 3.8 interceptions per season. We are keeping Byard’s 3.5 interception title line hot even hotter!

The Longshot

  • Jaire Alexander – 2.5

Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander has an opportunity this coming season. He saw a great bounce-back season in 2022 after missing time in 2021. His passes defended are solid, and those interceptions were lingering before last season, so after a great year and an elite grade by many. I’ll take the long ball this year that Alexander has now taken that next step as a former 2018 first-rounder.

Especially since they won’t have two elite-like pass rushers this year upfront, the Vikings chose former lackluster DE Marcus Davenport to replace disgruntled Za’Darius Smith. I am leaving just one “older” top-end guy off the edge in Danielle Hunter. Add those facts to the QBs in the division. And I’m solid that Alexander is my deep longshot at the 2023 NFL interception title.

Defensive Sacks Title

Top 10

  • T.J. Watt – 13.75
  • Myles Garrett – 13.25
  • Joey Bosa – 12.75
  • Nick Bosa – 11.75
  • Trey Hendrickson – 11.75
  • Aaron Donald – 11.25
  • Danielle Hunter – 11.25
  • Chandler Jones – 11.25
  • Shaquil Barrett – 10.75
  • Khalil Mack – 10.25
  • Robert Quinn – 10.25
  • Za’Darius Smith – 10.25

With that top ten, it was a quick process of elimination to bet on the Brown’s DE Myles Garrett. He’s always up there and wasn’t that far off with one less game played than Nick Bosa. Which, of course, for this guy, eliminates him off the top. This leaves Garrett as the only guy with no issues and nothing but upside in this bet.

Ask me how many sack titles he has because it’s none. When many might be shocked to hear that, the guy being a superstar isn’t a secret. Even if he is now the Brown’s all-time sack leader, among other things, add in that addition of a very capable veteran edge rusher Za’Darius Smith across from him. One that will demand a little more attention than Jadeveon Clowney did on paper. Leading to fewer double teams, wider gaps, and in the end, more sacks. It’s time.

The Long shot

  • Hassan Reddick  (NA)

With no available numbers on the exact number of sacks per our resource. Reddick is not in the top 20 listed (huh?). The Eagle’s Haason Reddick keeps going overlooked year in and year out. Wherever he plays, it just doesn’t click that this guy’s tight off the edge and getting into the backfield. So when I saw a guy so far down on their list, I forgot about Micah Parsons quickly at his line.

So just how does a guy who came in with 16 sacks to Nick Bosa’s 18.5? And who also has 39.5 sacks in the last 44 contests he’s played slide so far? Age? 29 isn’t that old, not when he was basically on the shelf for the first half of his career with Arizona.

Hence the last few seasons of last-minute rush in production. Adding not only 40 sacks but credited with 60 QB hits and 38 tackles for a loss. With the state of the youth moment or lack of off-the-edge in Philadelphia, why wouldn’t Reddick see the increase in that heavy pass-rush rotation in 2023? Noting, many pros consider Reddick elite-like. So sure, I’ll be happy to go a long shot here because I believe it, too—at least one more year with that defensive depth chart.

Defensive Tackle Title

Top 10

  • Roquan Smith – 147.5
  • C.J. Mosley – 139.5
  • Darius Leonard – 137.5
  • Jordyn Brooks – 135.5
  • Foyesade Oluokun – 133.5
  • Blake Martinez – 129.5
  • Fred Warner – 129.5
  • Zach Cunningham – 126.5
  • Devin White – 126.5
  • Eric Kendricks – 125.5

Our best option is to challenge the rare back-to-back repeat by Foye Oluokun. This guy isn’t seen in the top ten when all I see are reasons not to go there. Roquan Smith still has Patrick Queen and a possible emerging Kyle Hamilton. We like that Bobby Wagner is back in Seattle and has been here and done this.

And likely our runner-up, after eliminating the rest for various reasons. Including Brooks and Leonard’s injury issues. Or perhaps like Warner, Mosely, and Campbell. They have formidable allies at linebacker next to them.

As I scanned the first time, it was clear where this was going. The Broncos paid Alex Singleton. He’s always been a mass producer anywhere he’s started. So if he can stay healthier this year, I’m all in. He’s the guy with the average tackle rate, the best team scenario, and the only guy to challenge Oluokun.

  • Alex Singleton – 124.5

Singleton is sitting at number 11 on the list. His past exceptional circumstances led to this conclusion. Nor is it just the fact he’s coming off a 12-start season. He recorded 163 combined tackles in 17 games after two lower-end but very solid triple-digit years in Philadelphia. What are your thoughts about Russell Wilson and the company? Or that very unproven defensive line as a group and the often-injured Josey Jewell situation?

One last thing to seal this bet. The fact is that in those last three seasons. Singleton recorded those triple digits without the full complement of time to do so. And was he coming up short in 2022 with 163? He only played 68% of the snaps available on defense that season and each season before, at least according to old faithful

Did I already mention he’s being paid now to be their full-time starter or “the guy”? So what will a good solid 90% of the snaps bring? My guess is more combined tackles than Foyesade Oluokun in 2023—and one big payday at the end of the season for us.

The Long shot

  • Foye Oluokun – 133.5

Given the history of everything we know, potentially more help from an improved and very talented young group around him. We think this is still viable. Back-to-back doesn’t happen. Not too much has changed in Jacksonville, so he broke one. Can he break another and make it three?

As a fan of his since being drafted, ask anyone. I believe in him. It’s just a long shot. He can make it a triple kind of thing. Foyesade Oluokun and Singleton are this guy’s clear-cut standouts and the rest of the list. Sure, they’re really good, some of them. Knowing the history, circumstances, and talent in total wins here in the end.

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2023 NFL Defensive Player – MVP

Defensive Player Of The Year

  • Micah Parsons
  • Myles Garett
  • T. J. Wat
  • Nick Bos
  • Ahmad Gardner
  • Maxx Crosby

We aren’t backing off the 2023 sack leader. Each title will likely go hand in hand as the edge rushers are the stars of the gridiron these days by design. And exactly why our resource only has one cornerback among all the others. We will have to agree. This is the long shot for us in this category. Since 2010, there’s been one corner winning that title. Stephon Gilmore in 2019, and before then, it was 2010 and safety Troy Polamalu.

So remembering this from earlier. “When cornerbacks Trevon Diggs (11) and C.J. Jackson (8) both had exceptional seasons.” Yet, despite those above interceptions for any season. Granted, T.J. Watt won it, tieing the all-time sack record with Michael Strahan that year.

We just also like the odds better when in that same time frame since. There’s been one inside linebacker, Luke Kuechly (2013). The two defensive backs we mentioned with Gilmore and Polamalu. Then the rest are all edge-rushing pass rushers. However, it has a lot of the same names. It’s just clearly in the middle of refreshing with the newer and younger generation.

Since 2010

  • 2022 EDGE Nick Bosa San Francisco 49ers
  • 2021 OLB T.J. Watt Pittsburgh Steelers
  • 2020 IDE Aaron Donald Los Angeles Rams
  • 2019 CB Stephon Gilmore, New England Patriots
  • 2018 IDE Aaron Donald Los Angeles Rams
  • 2017 IDE Aaron Donald Los Angeles Rams
  • 2016 OLB Khalil Mack Oakland Raiders
  • 2015 IDE J.J. Watt Houston Texans
  • 2014 IDE J.J. Watt Houston Texans
  • 2013 ILB Luke Kuechly Carolina Panthers
  • 2012 IDE J.J. Watt Houston Texans Voting
  • 2011 OLB Terrell Suggs Baltimore Ravens
  • 2010 SS Troy Polamalu Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Defensive Player – DROY

Defensive Rookie Of The Year

  • Will Anderson
  • Jalen Carter
  • Tyree Wilson
  • Devon Witherspoon
  • Christian Gonzalez

Considering the rookie field, the likelihood that any Defensive Lineman or Edge Rusher will dominate this year is slim if you ask me. So with only our resource listing the few above, if you find the Lions, Jack Campbell. In the best-case scenario, the rookie linebacker will likely overachieve his first year.

Though be it a long shot since he isn’t listed, he was a tackle monster in Iowa and set up to start fairly quickly. The Lions’ depth isn’t that deep, and his draft stock alone has him sitting as a favorite, boosting assumptions he’ll run this defense.

So back to our top five, or at least listed as. Call me crazy, but I’d soon take either the defensive back Devon Witherspoon. He’s playing in Seattle with what normally isn’t a really effective pass rush. He should also start immediately and be preferred as the rookie. Opposing QBs can lean hard toward their better wide receivers when facing off man-to-man.

Or look his way as often as he can and if there’s no pressure from the front D-lineman. They can have more time for a window to hit their open guy because all rookies break down at this level. At least, that’s got to be the theory of every offensive coordinator.

By the numbers it is, all rookies get tested, and cornerbacks happen to be high on that list of targets. The last I heard was before the draft. The favorite listed is a tremendous defensive pass-rusher option. Will Anderson is undoubtedly going to get time to prove himself. This guy didn’t see any Chase Young or even any really good ones from last year’s winner DE Aidan Hutchinson. So why now, after landing with Houston? The odds can change, but we are talking about the MVP here.

We’re not sold that Anderson’s volume is enough to overcome any first-year NFL learning curve. At least based on overall development coming in as a rookie. When he’s still very much under development at the moment.

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