The NFL Preseason is less than eight weeks away! You read that right. In less than two months, the Hall of Fame game in Canton, Ohio, between the New York Jets and Cleveland Browns will kick off. Now is the perfect time to start looking ahead at those future bets. In 2022 Brian Dabol of the New York Giants won the award. Before the season kicks off, he was at 35/1 odds to win the award. Nice cash out if you got in early.
The NFL Coach of the Year award has been handed out annually since 1957. The toughest part about predicting Coach of the Year is it’s not always given out to the best coach. For example, Bill Belichick has only won the award three times, while Andy Reid has only won it once, all the way back in 2002 with the Philadelphia Eagles. The good part about that is it gives us a variety of odds and makes 35/1 bets like Brain Dabol in 2022 possible to hit.
When Dabol won in 2022, he had the least amount of wins by a head coach (9-7-1) to get this award since Bruce Arians went 9-3 with the Indianapolis Colts after returning from his cancer treatment. Before that, Jimmy Johnson won it in 1990 with a record of 7-9. The key to winning this award in most years seems to be to take a team that wasn’t as good and get them to the playoffs. Or take a mid-pack team to a number-one seed in the conference.
2023 NFL Coach of the Year Odds and Best Bets
Winning Head Coaches Last 10 Years
2022 Brian Daboll New York Giants 9-7-1
2021 Mike Vrabel Tennessee Titans 12-5
2020 Kevin Stefanski Cleveland Browns 11-5
2019 John Harbaugh Baltimore Ravens 14-2
2018 Matt Nagy Chicago Bears 12-4
2017 Sean McVay Los Angeles Rams 11-5
2016 Jason Garrett Dallas Cowboys 13-3
2015 Ron Rivera Carolina Panthers 15-1
2014 Bruce Arians Arizona Cardinals 11-5
2013 Ron Rivera Carolina Panthers 12-4
2023 NFL Coach of the Year Odds (Caesars Sportsbook)
Sean Payton +1000
Dan Campbell +1000
Matt Eberflus +1300
Arthur Smith +1400
Robert Saleh +1500
Frank Reich +1800
Demeco Ryans +1800
Mike McDaniel +2000
Dennis Allen +2000
Matt Lafleur +2000
Pete Carroll +2000
Zac Taylor +2000
Brandon Staley +2000
Doug Pederson +2000
Shane Steichen +2000
Kevin Stefanski +2000
Mike Tomlin +2000
Bill Belichick +2500
Kyle Shanahan +2500
Jonathan Gannon +3000
Brian Daboll +3000
Sean McVay +3000
Josh McDaniels +3000
Ron Rivera +3000
John Harbaugh +3500
Sean McDermott +3500
Mike Vrabel +3500
Kevin O’Connell +3500
Nick Sirianni +3500
Andy Reid +4000
Todd Bowles +5000
Mike McCarthy +5000
The Favorites
Sean Payton returns to the NFL with the Denver Broncos. The 2006 Coach of the Year for the New Orleans Saints will do his best to revive the Broncos after a disappointing 5-12 record in 2022. This was under first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett, who was fired after just 15 games. If Payton can turn this team into a 10-win playoff team with Russell Wilson at the helm, he’s got a pretty solid path to this award.
Dan Campbell checks in as the co-favorite, along with Payton. His path is much tougher, in my opinion. The Lions are favored to win the North (+120), and their win total is set at 9.5 after going 9-8 last season. It would take a massive effort from a team with already high expectations to win Coach of the Year.
For Matt Eberflus of the Chicago Bears, the path is there. The Bears had the worst record in the league in 2022 at 3-14. With Justin Fields taking a big leap and a now wide-open North Division with no Aaron Rodgers, a huge turnaround could do it.
Arthur Smith went 7-10 last year with the Atlanta Falcons. Bijian Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London provide one of the most star-studded young offenses, but massive questions remain at quarterback. After winning seven games last year, this seems like another tough road to claim the award.
Robert Saleh, Frank Reich, and DeMeco Ryans all have one thing in common, new quarterbacks. For Reich and Ryans, it’s rookies Bryce Young and CJ Stroud. Saleh has Aaron Rodgers taking over. Reich and Ryans both have wide-open divisions. It could be a strong case for them if they can lead their teams to the playoffs with rookies under center.
However, in the last ten years, only three rookies (Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson & Mac Jones) who were the main starter all season have made the playoffs in their rookie year. Saleh has the toughest division and high expectations with Aaron Rodgers. If MVP-level Rodgers shows up, Saleh could win the award.
Mid-Tier 1
Mike McDaniel, Dennis Allen, and Matt Lafleur kick off the next level of coaches. McDaniel and the Dolphins sit in the tough AFC East, where there are high expectations for the fastest offense in the league. Allen has Derek Carr at quarterback in a division that’s up for grabs.
Unless the Saints show out, it’ll probably be hard for Allen to get this award. Lafleur could easily take this home if Jordan Love is the next Aaron Rodgers. After a couple of 13-win seasons with Rodgers, if Lafleur can repeat that with Love, he’s a candidate.
Pete Carroll, Zac Taylor, and Brandon Staley all head into 2023 with higher expectations. For Taylor and the Bengals, they went 12-4 and made it to the conference championship, where they lost to the eventual champion Chiefs. The Chargers went 10-7, but with a young stud at quarterback already have high expectations.
It’s a lot tougher for coaches with expectations to win these awards. If Carroll was going to win it, 2022 was probably his chance. Going 9-8 and making the playoffs with Geno Smith wasn’t something many saw coming. This is probably a group I would stay away from.
Mid-Tier 2
Doug Pederson, Shane Steichen, and Kevin Stefanski are interesting mid-tier groups. For Pederson, he impressed last season, taking Urban Meyer’s dumpster fire and turning the Jags into a playoff team. Trevor Lawrence showed up big. This division is wide open, and if Lawrence can improve even more and make this a 13-14 win team, Pederson could win this award.
Steichen has the tough hurdle of the rookie quarterback, but if Richardson is an immediate hit, this Colts team might have the pieces to make a playoff run and win this award for the rookie head coach. Stefanski led the Browns to a 7-10 record last season. If Deshaun Watson has an MVP-level year in 2023, maybe Stefanski could win this award. Of these three, he’s the one I’d least likely bet on, but I think all three are worth consideration.
Mike Tomlin and Bill Belichick deserve a category all to their own. You could argue nobody is more deserving than Tomlin and Belichick to win this award every season. However, that’s not how it works. For either of these guys to take it home, they will have to have outstanding seasons from their young quarterbacks. Will that happen? Likely not, but you can’t count either team out with these guys in charge.
The Longshots
This is the group where last year’s Coach of the Year came out of, so pay attention. Kyle Shanahan’s team is the third favorite (+850) to win the Super Bowl. Yet nobody knows who their quarterback even is. Brock Purdy, Trey Lance, Sam Darnold, or someone else?
If Shanahan has to piece together a season with a rotating cast of characters and ends up being one of the top teams in the league, he could easily win this award. Jonathan Gannon probably has the highest hill to climb to win the award. The Cardinals are tied for the worst odds (+20000) to win it all. Huge question marks around Kyler Murray, Deandre Hopkins is no longer a part of the team. If somehow they make the playoffs, Gannon is probably a shoo-in. It’s going to be a tough road, though.
Brian Daboll wants to do something that hasn’t been done since Joe Gibbs in 1982 and 1983. Gibbs was the last head coach to win this award back to back. Good luck, Dabol. Sean McVay is a curious case. The Rams won it all two seasons ago and then paid the price in 2023. Loaded with injuries, it was a lost season.
Many of their stars return this year, seemingly back to full health with Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald. It would likely take a massive effort from this Rams team for McVay to win it again.
As you go down through the rest of the list, it’s either team like the Commanders who have tons of question marks and uncertainty, or it’s the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles-level teams. Unless you go undefeated, they just likely won’t win the award because expectations are too high. One final guy I want to call out is Mike Vrabel.
Just two seasons again, the Tennessee Titans were the #1 seed in the AFC at 12-5. If Vrabel, who is a good coach, can get one last hoorah out of Tannehill and Henry and do something similar could be in the conversation.
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Matt Eberflus +1300
Kyle Shanahan +2500
Mike Vrabel +3500
