Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers seem very likely to break up. Rodgers and the team have publicly had their issues for a while now. There are several reports that talked about Rodgers’ displeasure with management.
Rodgers himself has made comments that do not dispute this. In the last few offseasons, it has become more apparent, and the contract changes last year make a trade very possible.
First Question
What does the contract look like? Can Aaron Rodgers be cut? The answer is yes, but this is an extremely unlikely option. Aaron Rodgers has $99.7M in dead cap, so financially it makes little to no sense on the Packers’ side. Even if he were a post-June cut, the 2023 dead cap hit would be $75.3M with $24.4M in 2024 per Spotrac.
They would also be paying him almost $60M to leave. This contract is horrible, and there are a lot of reports that the Packers front office thinks that Rodgers took advantage of them last off-season. They are just as guilty of his awful contract.
Second Question
Is retirement an option? Rodgers could retire, and I am sure he could land a high-profile tv deal or just go play golf off of the fortune he has made. Brady retiring makes me think he plays at least one more year. Doesn’t want to deal with Brady in 5 years with Hall of Fame stuff, does he? Rodgers also has about $60M reasons to play this season in guaranteed money.
Third Question
Is the relationship repairable enough for Rodgers to stay? Rodgers and the Packers reluctantly might stick it out for another season based on the contract. The rumors make it sound like this is not likely, but we have been down this road with Rodgers before.
If he doesn’t want to leave, he will stay and get paid $58.4M to do so. The Packers won’t sit or bench him, and we will revisit this again next offseason, again!
Fourth Question
Who can afford to trade for Rodgers? The answer is more teams than you think. The contract per spotrac would be cap hits of $15.79M, $32.5M, $51.1M, and $45.3M for the next four seasons. The Packers will likely eat a $40.3m dead cap to trade him prior to the NFL Draft.
If they waited until after June 1st, they could split the money between 2023 and 2024. But, they will want compensation this year and likely will just eat the dead cap of about $40M to make it happen.
This makes it pretty affordable in 2023 for a team to acquire Rodgers with a cap hit of $15.79M in 2023 and $32.5M in 2024. Rodgers currently still has the 7th best odds to win the 2023 MVP award.
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Packers – Even Odds
We have a good idea of what this could look like for Rodgers. Rodgers did decline last year in production, partly due to injury. He had a thumb injury that lingered last year, and that obviously affected things for him.
The team also struggled with injuries on the offensive line and to their wide receivers. If Rodgers stays in Green Bay, he would still be a low-end QB1 in 2023. We would, of course, have this conversation all over again in 2024.
Raiders +300 Odds
Derek Carr seemed to have stolen away Davante Adams from Aaron Rodgers. Now Davante Adams is trying to recruit Rodgers to the Raiders. The Raiders are the most popular landing spot, and they can afford Rodgers after cutting Derek Carr. The Packers were interested in Darren Waller. Maybe that was Rodgers who had an interest.
Rodgers in an offense with Davante Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller would be very enticing. The team could franchise-tag Josh Jacobs and be one of the top offenses in the league. Does Rodgers really want to join the stacked AFC and deal with Mahomes twice a year? We could find out here in the next few months.
Jets +500 Odds
Aaron Rodgers is really on the Brett Favre retirement plan. Once a Packers legend and hero, he is quickly becoming an enemy. Favre ended up finding his way to the Jets, another team that has been linked to Aaron Rodgers. This would be great for Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore.
The team will most likely have to give up their 1st round pick for this, but this team has a good young roster. The QB is the biggest need, and they feel like they are a QB away from being a championship contender. They may choose to go the Carr route and keep their picks.
Titans +1000 Odds
The Titans cleaned house this week; I don’t honestly see them making this move. Doesn’t make sense for Rodgers and doesn’t make sense for them. New GM Ron Carthon has come in and cleaned house. They got rid of some big contracts this week, and Ryan Tannehill might be next. But he still is on the roster and has a fairly large cap hit himself.
He would likely be moved via cut or trade to make room for Rodgers. Tannehill’s 2024 and 2025 have been voided for only $9.2M in dead cap. Tannehill is a free agent in 2024. In 2023, he has a cap hit of $36.6M and a dead cap of $18.8M.
If the team released him as a post-June one cut, they could split that $18.8 dead cap between 2023 and 2024. Or they could just eat that $18.8M cap hit all in 2023. A team could end up trading for Tannehill. He has been linked a lot to the Falcons with Arthur Smith. This would be a terrible move for Rodgers dynasty stock, in my opinion.
Retirement +2000 Odds
I don’t see this happening, at least for one more year. Rodgers could be a buy low right now based on this concern.
Heavy Underdogs
NFC South
Any team in the NFC South would be great for Aaron Rodgers and his stock. Rodgers would also boost the stock of all of those weapons. Anyone with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin would be pumped for Rodgers instead of Trask. The Panthers and Frank Reich would love to have Rodgers paired up with D.J. Moore.
Kyle Pitts managers would be dancing in the streets along with the Drake London stans. The New Orleans Saints fans would be pumped, and Chris Olave’s stock would skyrocket. I would rank these four: 1. Saints 2. Buccaneers 3. Falcons 4. Panthers. Rodgers would dice up these defenses, and he just saw Brady make the playoffs at 8-9. An easy playoff track would be intriguing, as well as nice warm weather and domes.
San Francisco 49ers
I know the Packers do not want to have Rodgers stay in the NFC, but the options might dwindle. Rodgers also will have some say in this with his no-trade clause. The 49ers could potentially get a QB in the deal in lieu of picks. Rodgers could move Trey Lance or Brock Purdy in a deal with picks to the Packers.
Rodgers dynasty managers would love this move. I think George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk’s managers would be equally as happy. The 49ers went all in and really do not have a lot of draft capital, but they could dip into their future pockets again if it means getting Rodgers.
The draft day drama would come full circle if Rodgers landed in San Fran. Remember, the 49ers passed on him for Alex Smith. His favorite team passed on him. He then sat and sat and sat in the green room for an iconic draft day moment. ESPN and NFL Network would absolutely love this.
Washington Commanders
The Commanders were very interested in Jimmy Garropollo last year, and they are likely to move on from Carson Wentz this offseason. They have a great defense and some great young pass-catchers. This roster has really improved, but the quarterback play has held them back. Getting a solid veteran is likely their best option with where they are picking in the draft.
The team says they are comfortable with Sam Howell. This is something you say right before you go and get a QB, like when the Bears said QB1 for Andy Dalton before drafting Justin Fields.
Or when the Bears had Mike Glennon go to their draft party when they traded for Mitch Trubisky. Man, maybe the Bears are the team I am missing on this list…The Commanders would be a great landing spot, in my opinion. This would be great news for all of the pass catchers and even the RBs.
Where do you think Rodgers goes, and where do you think the best landing spot is for him in the dynasty? Bonus questions, what do you think about Sam Howell, Kyle Trask, and Jordan Love? These are all potential starters next year with a combined two starts. Could buy lows or could be backups this season. This offseason is going to be a blast.
