The stage is set. After an 18-week regular season and three rounds of playoffs, the two number-one seeds will face off in the biggest game of the year. Both got an extra week of rest after the regular season after both teams finished with the same NFL-best 14-3 record. Who will hoist the Lombardi after 60 minutes of gameplay? I’m about to tell you, in my opinion, why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57.
Exclusive SGPN Content
Super Bowl 57: Why The Eagles Will Win
How Each Team Got Here
First, let’s take a look at how each team got here. Over the course of the next few days, you’re going to hear a lot of narratives that the Chiefs are more battle-tested than the Eagles.
The Chiefs lost games to the Colts, the Bengals, and the Bills. They also had a tough playoff road, winning two close games against the Jaguars and the Bengals. I understand the narrative, but I disagree with it.
The drive behind this narrative is that the Eagles creamed the Giants in the playoffs and then played against a crippled 49ers group who were led by Josh Johnson and basically a one-armed Brock Purdy.
However, this team dominated teams almost all season. Whether you’re playing high-caliber teams each week or not, this is the National Football League.
Winning in a dominant fashion week in and week out is still a challenge. It’s important to note that the Eagles have only lost one game that; Jalen Hurts played the entire game. The other two losses were with Gardner Minshew at the helm.
The Commanders were the only team to beat the Eagles in a division rivalry matchup on Monday night. Let’s say you can make a case that the Chiefs did have a tougher road to the Super Bowl. I’m not exactly sure that makes them better in the Super Bowl, as they haven’t been able to coast as much as the Eagles.
The Eagles’ Defense
Calling the Eagles’ defense good may be an understatement. They really put the pieces together all over the field that really make a difference.
Just to put it in numbers, they held opposing offenses to the eighth fewest points per game, third-fewest yards per game, and fourth-fewest passing yards per game. This will be important as they are playing the team that was first in both those categories on offense.
The weakest part of the defense is against the run, where the Eagles were 17th ranked, allowing 121.7 yards per game. The good news for them is that the Chiefs aren’t particularly strong in the run game, ranking 20th in rushing yards per game.
This Eagles unit is solid all across the board, from a good defensive line, balanced linebackers, and play-making defensive backs.
The Eagles’ defense should excel in this game, getting to Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs allowed the second most sacks in the league this year, with 55.
Getting to Mahomes and pressuring him into either throwing it away or forcing bad throws, will be crucial to slow the team that has scored more points per game than any other team in 2022.
Expect this defense to frustrate Mahomes early and force him into some mistakes as he tries to make plays. This balanced and pressuring defense is one of the reasons why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57.
The Eagles’ Offense
While we talked about the Chiefs being the top team in points per game, the Eagles are second. The difference is the Eagles’ defense has far outplayed the Chiefs’ defense statistically.
The Chiefs’ defense is 16th in points allowed per game, 12th in total yards per game, 24th in passing yards per game, and eighth in rushing yards allowed per game.
This should match up well for the Eagles, who are second in total yards a game, eighth in passing yards a game, and fifth in rushing yards a game.
Being in the top 10 in both rushing and passing yards goes to show how balanced this Eagles’ offense is. This leaves less room for error for the Chiefs’ defense and is one of the reasons the Eagles are such a dangerous team.
Speaking of their offensive playmakers, it’s not just the rushing ability of Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts, Kenneth Gainwell, and Boston Scott that the Chiefs will need to worry about. Hurts has shown the ability to elevate his game to the next level this year at passing.
He’s been aided in this by the new acquisition of A.J. Brown. When Brown isn’t open, DeVonta Smith has also been very reliant all year. And last, tight end Dallas Goedert has to be accounted for as well. The balanced offense, with weapons all over, is another reason why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57.
Other Trends And Thoughts
The Chiefs are rarely out-couched. Andy Reid is one of the best coaches in the league. However, Nick Siriani has done a phenomenal job with the Eagles this year.
Both coaches with ties to Doug Pederson and the Eagles, it’s hard not to believe they’ll both try to outwit the other. As good as Andy Reid has been this year, I was shocked Nick Siriani was not considered one of the top options for NFL Coach of the Year at the NFL Honors.
Speaking of awards, Patrick Mahomes won the NFL Most Valuable Player Award. Recently there is talk about a little bit of a curse behind this award.
For the past several years, if the NFL-MVP has gone on to the Super Bowl, they’ve lost. In fact, the last player to win the NFL-MVP and go on to win the Super Bowl was Kurt Warner, back in 1999.
Another factor to consider is the line movement in this game. When a team has opened as an underdog and had early line movement, making them a favorite, they have gone on to cover the spread 14 out of the last 16 times.
Obviously, these trends should all be taken with a grain of salt because every team is different. However, it’s more ammo for me to add to why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57.
Final Game Flow
I get your hesitation. It is hard to fade Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. However, they aren’t as intimidating on defense. Which has shown, especially down the stretch, with how many close games they’ve been in.
The Eagles, on the other hand, have one of the biggest point differentials in the playoffs in NFL history. You could make all sorts of excuses on who they played and who started at quarterback for those teams. They were still two very good football teams that the Eagles executed well against.
The Eagles will likely come out with a very balanced offense. They’ll be able to find success in the run game as well as the pass game and, with that, will control the clock.
Controlling the clock keeps the Chiefs’ biggest weapon, Patrick Mahomes, off the field. I expect Jalen Hurts to have a big game, and if you agree with me that the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57, then I think Jalen Hurts becomes the Super Bowl MVP.
The Eagles will also find ways to frustrate the Chiefs on defense. Despite not being on the injury report, Patrick Mahomes’ ankle is likely still tender. Expect the Eagles to pressure him early and often.
We saw two years ago in a Super Bowl when the Bucs pressured Mahomes; he ends up forcing the ball. He started to do this against the Bengals in the AFC Championship.
The Bengals just weren’t able to capitalize. The Eagles’ defense will be able to capitalize on this with their athletic defensive backfield and linebackers.
All of these are the reasons I see success for this Hurts-led Eagles team. They’ve been one of the most balanced teams all year, and I expect it to continue. Hurts will go down, having lost only one game this year. He’s not the only reason, but he is the main reason why the Eagles will win Super Bowl 57. Eagles 34 – Chiefs 31.