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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 3 Wong Teasers

PHILADELPHIA, PA – SEPTEMBER 19: Minnesota Vikings Running Back Alexander Mattison (2) carries the ball in the second quarter during the game between the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles on September 19, 2022 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA. (Photo by Kyle Ross/Icon Sportswire)

Welcome back to the weekly Wong Teaser Preview! In this article, we will take a look at the historical trends and current lines that meet the criteria of the famous blackjack bettor Stanford Wong. If you are unfamiliar with Wong Teasers be sure to check out our Wong Teaser Basics article.

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Another interesting week for us. The underdogs have not been performing well this season so far. The favorites went 4-0 in the -10 category, but 1-1 in the -7.5 category. Most likely you didn’t get a -7.5 until the very end of the close. Hopefully you didn’t include any Bengals in your teasers, however for this article it counts as a loss.

I personally went 1-1 this week, washing out any winnings. Week 3 is historically one of the best weeks for Wong teasers for some reason so we are looking for a 100% week this week! We are due for some serious positive regression so I am excited to dive into it this week.


Week 3 Wong Teasers

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology in playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.


Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers.

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;


Week 3 Lines

All lines are courtesy of WynnBet. Please note that the results posted next week may differ from what is below due to line movement.

This will show the total and the Record of that team as a 6pt teaser in the current situation this week. So if they’re an underdog, their record below will be their record as an underdog. The total is only on this chart so you can reference it.

Wednesday Spread Total Record since 2018 10 Point Record
Patriots +3 43.5 3-1
Texans +3 40.5 5-1
Titans +2 45.5 5-4 6-3
Panthers +3 40.5 11-1
Falcons +1.5 42 8-1 8-1
Packers +1.5 42 9-1 9-1
Broncos +1.5 45 8-2 8-2
Cowboys +2.5 39.5 5-2 6-1

So how do I bet these?

Typically, I will form 2-3 teasers taking in information from handicappers at the Sports Gambling Podcast Network as well as my own handicaps on teams that meet the criteria. In addition to any additional trends.

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As of Wednesday,  I have already bet:

Texans +3

Packers +2.5

Cowboys +2.5

So those are 3 lines I really like should they hold up until Sunday morning when I put my teasers in.


2022 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 3-6 33.33%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 1-1 50%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 0-3 0%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 4-0 100%

 

Week Record Win %
1 1-4 20%
2 2-2 50%

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below…

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 59-18 76.62%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 52-18 74.29%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 60-16 78.95%
6 pt 2021 +1½ thru +3 67-17 79.76%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 18-3 85.71%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 13-4 76.47%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 25-3 89.29%
6 pt 2021 -7½ thru -9 24-5 82.76%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 35-3 92.1%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 35-5 87.5%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 34-6 85%
10 pt 2021 +1½ thru +2½ 36-3 92.3%
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%
10 pt 2021 -10 thru -10½ 13-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.


Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2018-2021

Week Record Win %
1 22-4 84.62%
2 17-3 85%
3 26-2 92.86%
4 16-6 72.73%
5 19-4 82.61%
6 17-8 73.08%
7 15-6 68%
8 12-1 92.3%
9 17-3 85%
10 16-4 80%
11 14-8 63.64%
12 22-3 88%
13 17-4 80.95%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 23-4 85.19%
17 9-7 56.25%
18 2-0 100%

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2018-2021, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 234-65 78.26%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 177-50 77.97%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 36-13 73.47%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 76-15 83.52%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 60-11 84.5%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 12-1 92.3%

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 53-12 81.25%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 43-9 82.7%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%

Here are the results for 2022:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 3-6 33.33%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 3-3 50%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 1-0 100%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 1-1 50%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-1 50%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-1 50%

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