UFC 271 is upon us, and if you listen to tonight’s MMA Gambling Podcast, we’ll give you plenty of thoughts on winners for Saturday’s event. However, the true degens out there aren’t just looking for winning fighters, are you? You all want to maximize those winnings with some props. Luckily for you, we’re propping you up with some of our favorite prop plays for this weekend’s action.
Prop Bet #1: Lewis/Tuivasa – o/u 1.5 Rounds
Seemingly everybody is excited about the co-main event of UFC 271. Not only does the fight pit two of the biggest personalities in the heavyweight division, but it also pits perhaps the two biggest punchers not named Francis Ngannou. So, of course, given that fact, we’re all going to lean towards the under in all circumstances. That’s not always the best approach when we see heavy hitters. Some seem to get more tentative around those who throw big and as a result, an over is ripe for the picking. That’s just not the case here though. Tuivasa was willing to trade wildly with Greg Hardy. Lewis just mixed it up with Chris Daukaus.
Not only do they both have confidence in themselves, but they’ve ended under 1.5 rounds in seven of their last combined eight fights. This one is ending before the 7:30 mark of the fight.
The Play: Under 1.5 Rounds (-175)
Prop Bet #2: Moicano/Hernandez – Winning Method
This fight is the classic striker versus grappler delight that all fans love to see. Hernandez has back-to-back victories by knockout. Moicano, on the other hand, has three straight finishes by submission. The under might not be an awful play here, but I do think Moicano can hang on the feet and that Hernandez has the ability to take the fight deeper even if he’s losing. Instead, I like a different prop in this fight.
I think the better way to play this one at UFC 271 is to take the winner by their obvious favorite method. And for this one, I’m going with Moicano. His wrestling is underrated and Hernandez has shown issues with defending the takedown. He surrendered a couple to Cowboy Cerrone as well as Olivier Aubin-Mercier. Personally, I think Moicano’s grappling is better than both of them.
The Play: Renato Moicano by Submission (+250)
Prop Bet #3: Arlovski/Vanderaa – Winning Method
Earlier this week, Andrei Arlovski turned 43-years old. For a man of his age, he’s on an absolutely insane run at the moment. He’s won four of his last five fights with the only loss coming at the hands of Tom Aspinall. This includes wins over Carlos Felipe and Tanner Boser. Part of the reason why is the evolution of his game. Once a wild swinger looking to take someone’s head off, now Arlovski is happy to fight a smart technical boxing match. He picks away at his opponents and looks to avoid damage. So far, the only people who have beat him in the last few years have been people who could heavily turn up the pressure in a way he couldn’t handle.
I simply do not think that Jared Vanderaa is the type of fighter who can bring that fight to Arlovski. His cardio isn’t off the charts, nor is his speed or ability to wrestle. As a result, I think we see the new Arlovski template put into place at UFC 271 en route to an easy, if not terribly exciting, decision.
The Play: Andrei Arlovski by Decision (+135)
Prop Bet #4: Cannonier/Brunson – o/u 2.5 Rounds
The main card fight between Cannonier and Brunson creates a bit of a predicament for bettors. There doesn’t seem to be too much excitement on either end of the line. Since posting, both fighters’ lines have stayed relatively stagnant with Cannonier hovering around -170 and Brunson near +150. It’s a tough fight to call in many ways, largely because both guys are well-rounded. Brunson has a bunch of KOs on his record but has been leaning on his wrestling. Cannonier had big issues with takedown defense back when he fought at light heavyweight and heavyweight, but has solved them at middleweight.
While both guys have a lot of finishes on their records, they usually come when they have large advantages over their opponents. When Brunson could easily out-grappler Darren Till, he got the submission. When Cannonier had a clear striking advantage over David Branch, he knocked him out. I just don’t see a wide advantage for either fighter here and as a result, I expect a three-round war at UFC 271. Let’s hit the over.
The Play: Over 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Prop Bet #5: de Andrade/Morozov – Winning Method
A hidden gem on the prelims in a bout between Douglas Silva de Andrade and Sergey Morozov. For those unfamiliar with Morozov, he comes from M1-Global, where he was their bantamweight champion. He did this mostly through great body lock takedowns and controlling his opponents. Against some of the lesser-known, and less tested opponents, he picked up finishes after getting them down. However, even some of the most game in M1-Global, like TUF veteran Josh Rittenhouse, survived his attacks and lost a decision.
de Andrade has never been finished on the ground, unless you count a bad shot turned into a guillotine for Rob Font. I think he will survive all the attempts here from Morozov, but will likely spend most of UFC 271 on his back.
The Play: Sergey Morozov by Decision (+135)
What are some of your favorite prop bets from this card? Hit us up on Twitter, or in the SGPN Slack. And don’t forget to check out the MMA Gambling Podcast hosted by Jeff Fox and Gumby Vreeland every Sunday and Wednesday. On Wednesday’s show, they break down and make picks for each fight on UFC 271. Don’t miss it!