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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 15

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 15

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 15

Pains me to say it..but it’s week 15. Only four more weeks of teasing this season. Wong Teasers are on absolute FIRE right now. Three weeks in a row at 100% win rate under the closing lines.

Looking ahead at week 15, we have quite a bit of low totals again which historically is good for Wong teaser bettors.

Right now I will probably be avoiding the Steelers and the Dolphins. The Steelers defense has been a shadow of its original self the past two weeks and I do not feel comfortable backing them until I see something different. Now that being said, they are a home dog and historically that’s been a very good trend for the Steelers. The Dolphins are 10 point favorites against the Jets. The Jets are pretty, bad but I could see the Dolphins being upset and I don’t want to be on the losing side of that upset.

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 15

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 62-19 76.54%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 55-17 76.39%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 51-17 75%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 55-12 82.09%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 24-7 77.42%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 17-3 85%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 11-4 73.33%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 23-3 88.46%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 34-7 82.93%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 32-3 91.43%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 33-5 86.84%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 31-5 86.11%
10 pt 2017 -10 thru -10½ 8-1 88.89&
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%

 

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

 

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2017-2020

Week Record Win %
1 23-2 92%
2 18-5 78.26%
3 24-3 88.89%
4 18-7 72%
5 18-2 90%
6 19-7 73.08%
7 15-6 71.43%
8 12-3 80%
9 17-7 70.83%
10 16-1 94.12%
11 15-9 62.5%
12 18-4 81.82%
13 18-5 78.26%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 18-4 81.82%
17 11-6 64.7%

 

Week 14 Results

Closing Spread 6 Point 10 Point
Ravens +3 WIN
Seahawks -9 WIN
Titans -8.5 WIN
Falcons +3 WIN
Chargers -9 WIN
Bengals +2 WIN WIN
Rams +3 WIN

 

2021 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 53-15 77.94%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 16-2 88.89%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 30-2 93.75%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 9-2 81.82%

 

Week Record Win %
1 4-3 92%
2 4-0 100%
3 9-0 100%
4 5-2 71.43%
5 8-2 80%
6 5-1 83.33%
7 4-1 80%
8 3-0 100%
9 4-0 100%
10 3-4 42.86%
11 1-3 25%
12 7-0 100%
13 6-0 100%
14 7-0 100%

 

As of Wednesday, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 10pt Record
Chargers +3 52 10-3
Browns +1.5 38.5 9-1 9-1
Patriots +2 45.5 3-0 3-0
Dolphins -10 42 0-0
49ers -9 46 5-0
Bengals +2.5 44 10-2 12-0
Steelers +1.5 41.5 5-2 6-1

 

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below…

Regarding Game Totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

 

From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 235-71 76.8%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 183-54 77.22%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 94-14 87%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 82-18 82%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 66-16 80.49%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 17-2 89.47%

 

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 15-16 78.67%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 47-15 75.8%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-2 87.5%

 

Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 53-15 77.94%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 37-9 80.43%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 7-3 70%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 16-2 88.89%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-1 93.33%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 2-0 100%

 

How to Bet These Games

There has been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.

For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.

I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet.

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