We are back! 100% week against the closing spreads. And all underdogs at that. After a few tough weeks I think the NFL is getting back to normal. 4 out of 7 of the wins this week did not win outright but still covered the tease. The Week 13 slate is looking good with lots of opportunities for teasers to cash in big.
Looking at the lines this week, I am probably going to be avoiding the Seahawks and Chargers. Russel Wilson looks….cooked. Monday night should have been an easy victory for the Seahawks but something is going on there. Not sure if he is injured or what but I think it’s best to avoid betting or teasing them until we find out who they are. The Chargers also have the ability to get blown out by the Bengals. It could go either way but I don’t see that game being a close one either way.
Good luck this week! Let’s keep the Wong momentum going.
Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 13
6 Point Teasers
Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:
– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3
– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.
NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.
It is not recommended to tease game totals in your Week 13 teasers.
The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.
Sweetheart Teasers
10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:
– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;
– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½
– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;
Historical Wong Teaser Stats
| Teaser | Year | Spread | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | 2017 | +1½ thru +3 | 62-19 | 76.54% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +3 | 55-17 | 76.39% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +3 | 51-17 | 75% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +3 | 55-12 | 82.09% |
| 6 pt | 2017 | -7½ thru -9 | 24-7 | 77.42% |
| 6 pt | 2018 | -7½ thru -9 | 17-3 | 85% |
| 6 pt | 2019 | -7½ thru -9 | 11-4 | 73.33% |
| 6 pt | 2020 | -7½ thru -9 | 23-3 | 88.46% |
| 10 pt | 2017 | +1½ thru +2½ | 34-7 | 82.93% |
| 10 pt | 2018 | +1½ thru +2½ | 32-3 | 91.43% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | +1½ thru +2½ | 33-5 | 86.84% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | +1½ thru +2½ | 31-5 | 86.11% |
| 10 pt | 2017 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-1 | 88.89& |
| 10 pt | 2018 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-1 | 90.91% |
| 10 pt | 2019 | -10 thru -10½ | 10-3 | 76.92% |
| 10 pt | 2020 | -10 thru -10½ | 8-0 | 100% |
Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.
Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2017-2020
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 23-2 | 92% |
| 2 | 18-5 | 78.26% |
| 3 | 24-3 | 88.89% |
| 4 | 18-7 | 72% |
| 5 | 18-2 | 90% |
| 6 | 19-7 | 73.08% |
| 7 | 15-6 | 71.43% |
| 8 | 12-3 | 80% |
| 9 | 17-7 | 70.83% |
| 10 | 16-1 | 94.12% |
| 11 | 15-9 | 62.5% |
| 12 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 13 | 18-5 | 78.26% |
| 14 | 22-9 | 70.97% |
| 15 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 16 | 18-4 | 81.82% |
| 17 | 11-6 | 64.7% |
Week 12 Results
| Closing Spread | 6 Point | 10 Point |
| Lions +2.5 | WIN | WIN |
| Jaguars +1.5 | WIN | WIN |
| Jets +3 | WIN | |
| Colts +3 | WIN | |
| Broncos +2.5 | WIN | WIN |
| Packers +2 | WIN | WIN |
| Browns +3 | WIN |
2021 Results
| Teaser | Line | Record | Win % |
| 6 pt | +1 ½ thru +3 | 45-15 | 75% |
| 6 pt | -7 ½ thru -9 | 11-2 | 84.62% |
| 10 pt | +1 ½ thru +2 ½ | 25-2 | 92.6% |
| 10 pt | -10 thru -10.5 | 7-2 | 77.78% |
| Week | Record | Win % |
| 1 | 4-3 | 92% |
| 2 | 4-0 | 100% |
| 3 | 9-0 | 100% |
| 4 | 5-2 | 71.43% |
| 5 | 8-2 | 80% |
| 6 | 5-1 | 83.33% |
| 7 | 4-1 | 80% |
| 8 | 3-0 | 100% |
| 9 | 4-0 | 100% |
| 10 | 3-4 | 42.86% |
| 11 | 1-3 | 25% |
| 12 | 7-0 | 100% |
As of Wednesday, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:
| Wednesday Spread | Total | 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 | 10pt Record |
| Cardinals 08 | 45 | 2-0 | |
| Colts -9 | 45.5 | 4-0 | |
| Chargers +3 | 51 | 9-3 | |
| Seahawks +3 | 50 | 9-2 | |
| Chiefs -10 | 47.5 | 6-1 | |
| Patriots +2.5 | 48 | 2-0 | 2-0 |
| WFT +2.5 | 48 | 11-4 | 13-3 |
If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets and Week 13 teasers continue below…
Regarding Game Totals < 49
Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?
From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 235-71 | 76.8% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 183-54 | 77.22% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 94-14 | 87% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 82-18 | 82% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 66-16 | 80.49% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 17-2 | 89.47% |
If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 15-16 | 78.67% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 47-15 | 75.8% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 14-2 | 87.5% |
Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 | 45-15 | 75% |
| Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 32-9 | 78.05% |
| Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) | 6-3 | 66.67% |
| Bet | Record | Win % |
| Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 | 11-2 | 84.62% |
| Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 9-1 | 90% |
| Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) | 1-0 | 100% |
How to Bet These Games
There have been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.
For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round-robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.
I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet to help you Week 13 teasers win big.
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