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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 11

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 11

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 11

Wong Teaser’s worst week so far this season and our first losing week record-wise. The Browns and Raiders really let me down this week. It was very shocking to see this week how the teams that came out hot just put the other teams in the ground and how the opposing teams just laid down and died. Even on the Monday Night game with Matt Stafford just laying an egg while the Niners came out hot and didn’t stop. Week 11 is gonna be another great week and the teasers on tap are going to be great as well.

New chart this week where we compare the weekly results of the Wong Teasers and how they’ve been comparing this year to the past 3 years. VERY interesting to see that over the past 3 years Week 10 has been the best week for Wong teasers and this season is has been our worst week so far! Maybe the extra week addition threw it off? I guess we will see next week…

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 11

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals ever or in your Week 11 teasers.

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

-Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 62-19 76.54%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 55-17 76.39%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 51-17 75%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 55-12 82.09%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 24-7 77.42%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 17-3 85%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 11-4 73.33%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 23-3 88.46%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 34-7 82.93%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 32-3 91.43%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 33-5 86.84%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 31-5 86.11%
10 pt 2017 -10 thru -10½ 8-1 88.89&
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ as you prepare your Week 11 teasers.

Weekly Wong Teaser Records 2017-2020

Week Record Win %
1 23-2 92%
2 18-5 78.26%
3 24-3 88.89%
4 18-7 72%
5 18-2 90%
6 19-7 73.08%
7 15-6 71.43%
8 12-3 80%
9 17-7 70.83%
10 16-1 94.12%
11 15-9 62.5%
12 18-4 81.82%
13 18-5 78.26%
14 22-9 70.97%
15 18-4 81.82%
16 18-4 81.82%
17 11-6 64.7%

Week 10 Results

Closing Spread 6 Point 10 Point
Ravens -8.5 LOSS
Cowboys -7.5 WIN
Saints +3 WIN
Browns +2.5 LOSS LOSS
Colts -10.5 WIN
Vikings +3 WIN
Seahawks +3 LOSS
Raiders +3 LOSS

2021 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 37-12 75.51%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 11-2 84.62%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 19-1 95%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 6-1 85.71%

 

Week Record Win %
1 4-3 92%
2 4-0 100%
3 9-0 100%
4 5-2 71.43%
5 8-2 80%
6 5-1 83.33%
7 4-1 80%
8 3-0 100%
9 4-0 100%
10 3-4 42.86%

As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 10pt Record
Browns -10 44.5 1-0
Vikings +2.5 49 9-2 11-0
Titans -10.5 44.5 1-0
Bills -7.5 50 2-0
Jets +3 44.5 9-1
Saints +1.5 43.5 5-1 5-1
Seahawks +2.5 49 8-0 8-0
Cowboys +2.5 56 4-4 5-3

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets and teasers for Week 11 continue below…

Regarding game totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 235-71 76.8%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 183-54 77.22%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 94-14 87%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 82-18 82%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 66-16 80.49%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 17-2 89.47%

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 15-16 78.67%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 47-15 75.8%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-2 87.5%

 

Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 37-12 75.51%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 26-8 76.47%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 5-2 71.43%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 11-2 84.62%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-1 90%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-0 100%

 

How to bet these games

There have been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.

For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round-robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.

I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet for your best Week 11 teasers.

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