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Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 10

Let's Talk About Teasers - Week 10

Let’s Talk About Teasers – Week 10

Well if anyone needs a heavy favorite mush hit me up and I will put them in my 10 point teasers! Can’t believe how big of a dud the Cowboys laid this weekend. I guess they were due for some regression but not that much of a regression. Still went 1-1 this week but the cold streak continues for me. Luckily I’ve been red hot on my ATS picks.

Hopefully, we have a wide variety of lines to choose from this week so we can get back to our big winning records like the beginning of the year. We did okay this week but the lines closed on some that were off the criteria so we can’t count them.

6 Point Teasers

Our methodology for playing 6-point teasers is similar to Blackjack expert Stanford Wong’s strategy:

– Tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, +2½, or +3

– Tease the favorite when the line is -7½, -8, -8½, or -9.

NOTE: The original Wong Criteria do not include +3 or -9 but this is how the post was done previously so we will continue to use them. Over the past 3 years, it has only made a difference of about 1.5% to include those.

It is not recommended to tease game totals

The reasoning behind this methodology is that games are frequently decided by a final margin of 3, 6, or 7. So we play teasers in such a manner that we gain these numbers in the teaser movement.

Sweetheart Teasers

10-point teasers are often called “sweetheart” teasers. Over the past three years, underdogs of +1½, +2, +2½ were 69-10 (87.3%). Favorites from -10 to -10.5 in a 10 point teaser have a record of 36-8 (87.8%) and -12 to -12.5 have been a perfect 11-0. After looking at a small sample size in 2017-2020, I’ve decided to track 10-point teasers according to the following methodology:

– For 10-point teasers, tease the underdog when the line is +1½, +2, or +2½;

– Tease the favorite at -10, -10½

– Do not take sweetheart teasers at +3;

 

Historical Wong Teaser Stats

Teaser Year Spread Record Win %
6 pt 2017 +1½ thru +3 62-19 76.54%
6 pt 2018 +1½ thru +3 55-17 76.39%
6 pt 2019 +1½ thru +3 51-17 75%
6 pt 2020 +1½ thru +3 55-12 82.09%
6 pt 2017 -7½ thru -9 24-7 77.42%
6 pt 2018 -7½ thru -9 17-3 85%
6 pt 2019 -7½ thru -9 11-4 73.33%
6 pt 2020 -7½ thru -9 23-3 88.46%
10 pt 2017 +1½ thru +2½ 34-7 82.93%
10 pt 2018 +1½ thru +2½ 32-3 91.43%
10 pt 2019 +1½ thru +2½ 33-5 86.84%
10 pt 2020 +1½ thru +2½ 31-5 86.11%
10 pt 2017 -10 thru -10½ 8-1 88.89&
10 pt 2018 -10 thru -10½ 10-1 90.91%
10 pt 2019 -10 thru -10½ 10-3 76.92%
10 pt 2020 -10 thru -10½ 8-0 100%

Assuming a -120 payout for 2-team teasers, we must demonstrate better than 73.9% probability on each leg to show we have a breakeven-or-better EV. For a -130 payout on 3-team sweethearts, that threshold is 82.7%. These are specifically for my book so yours may differ.

Week 8 Results

Closing Spread 6 Point 10 Point
Colts -10 WIN
Cowboys -10 LOSS
Browns +2 WIN WIN
Giants +3 WIN

2021 Results

Teaser Line Record Win %
6 pt +1 ½ thru +3 35-9 79.55%
6 pt -7 ½ thru -9 10-1 91%
10 pt +1 ½ thru +2 ½ 18-0 100%
10 pt -10 thru -10.5 5-1 83.33%

As of Wednesday night, the unofficial list of Wong teasers this week are:

Wednesday Spread Total 6pt Teaser Record since 2017 10pt Record
Ravens -7.5 46.5 8-1
Cowboys -9 55 3-0
Browns +1.5 45 6-0 6-0
Steelers -9 42.5 5-0
Colts -10 47.5 0-1
Saints +3 44.5 5-1
Buccaneers -10 51.5 1-0
Cardinals -10.5 44 0-0
Vikings +3 53 9-2
Eagles +3 45 5-2
Raiders +2.5 52 9-5 9-5

My plays This Week

1u 10 pointer – Browns +12, Eagles +13, Raiders +12.5

We are staying away from the favorites this week. I love the Browns on the ML this week, even coming off that big win. They are 6-0 in teasers over the past 3 years they always seem to keep games close. Not sure why the Eagles are 3 point underdogs to the Broncos. Could be lines over adjusting for the Broncos beating the Cowboys? Either way I like them catching 13 or even 9. The Raiders +12.5 is a fade of the Chiefs. I like them to keep it close or win it, especially at home.

The Line I am avoiding is the Saints +3. There are so many unknowns with that team and with the QB right now. Just going to avoid it. But I like everything else and will post more on my Twitter Sunday.

Make sure to follow me @KerrCameron on Twitter and I will post them there as the lines move.

If you are interested in doing a little deeper dive into these bets continue below…

Regarding game totals < 49

Do totals matter? Another word of advice that some Wong bettors give is to only play games with low totals. The idea certainly makes sense: points are harder to come by in a low-scoring game, so the 6-point tease is worth more. But what does the data say about this in the last three years?

From 2017-2020, here are the statistics including playoffs:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 235-71 76.8%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 183-54 77.22%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 94-14 87%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 82-18 82%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 66-16 80.49%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 17-2 89.47%

If you wanted to look at only home favorites (Wong’s original criteria is home favorites):

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 15-16 78.67%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 47-15 75.8%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 14-2 87.5%

Here is where we will track this stat for 2021:

Bet Record Win %
Underdogs +1½, +2, +2½, +3 35-9 79.55%
Total 49 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 25-6 80.65%
Total 42 or under (dog +1½ thru +3) 4-2 66%

 

Bet Record Win %
Favorites -7½, -8, -8½, -9 10-1 91%
Total 49 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 9-0 100%
Total 42 or under (fav -7½ thru -9) 1-0 100%

How to bet these games

There have been lots of questions and comments on how to bet these Wong teasers. I think there was some thought that doing a Round Robin of 2 or 3 team teasers of the matching games would be ideal. I am not convinced that makes sense.

For example, there are 6 matching in a certain week and only 1 team lost their tease. If you had done a round-robin of 2 team teasers from those 6 matching games, you would have 15 possible teaser bets. In this scenario, if you had 5 out of 6 teams that won their tease, then you would be profitable. If only 4 out of 6 had won their tease, then you would have not broken even.

I think the recommendation is to pick and choose teams that match our criteria (and any other information you use to make an informed bet) and put those into a 2 or 3 team teaser bet. Week 10 is gonna be full of actions so getting in on the teasers and action will be huge.

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