Well, I finally lost some money last weekend at UFC Vegas 38. I still went 6-5, though, so it wasn’t a total wash. Time to recoup that dough with my UFC Vegas 39 predictions – all guaranteed winners.
UFC Vegas 39 Predictions
All odds courtesy of PointsBet
Marina Rodriguez (+140) vs Mackenzie Dern
For the second week in a row, I’m going with an underdog in the main event (hopefully it pays off this time). Marina Rodriguez is a far better striker than Mackenzie Dern, and has a slight height and reach advantage. While Dern is a monster on the mat, she is only successful on 10% of her takedown attempts. If Rodriguez can keep this fight standing, I think she wins it.
Randy Brown (-250) vs Jared Gooden
The co-main event is a much easier affair to pick a winner in. ‘Rude Boy’ Randy Brown is a way better fighter than Jared Gooden, who has only gone 1-2 in his UFC career. Brown wins this fight no matter where it goes. This is my lock pick of the week.
Matheus Nicolau (-200) vs Tim Elliott
We move on to the lightest men’s weight class, flyweight. While Tim Elliott is unorthodox in the cage, a crafty veteran, and a tough out, Matheus Nicolau is a better fighter. Plus, he’s seven years younger and is on a blazing 9-1 run over his last 10 fights. He should be able to outstrike Elliott and get the win.
Sabina Mazo (-175) vs Mariya Agapova
‘The Colombian Queen’ Sabina Mazo is my next pick, in her women’s flyweight fight against Mariya Agapova. Agapova looked really bad in her last fight, losing to an opponent not on Mazo’s level. I think Mazo is a far better striker and will use her experience to best her fellow young prospect.
Phil Hawes (-325) vs Deron Winn
Easy pick here in Phil Hawes. He’s six inches taller and has seven inches of reach on Deron Winn, and is a way better striker. And he’s on a hot streak, winning seven straight, including all three of his UFC fights.
Chris Gutierrez (-270) vs Felipe Colares
Another easy one to pick. Chris ‘El Guapo’ Gutierrez lands twice as many strikes as Felipe Colares and has reeled off four wins and a draw over his last five fights. Colares has swapped wins and losses back and forth in all four of his UFC fights, and he won his last fight, so…
Alexandr Romanov (-650) vs Jared Vanderaa
We move on to the big beefy boys in heavyweights Alexandr ‘King Kong’ Romanov and Jared ‘The Mountain’ Vanderaa. Another easy pick, hence the big line. ‘King Kong’ is a smothering wrestler and grappler, so he’ll have his way with Vanderaa and move his pro record to 15-0.
Charles Rosa (+150) vs Damon Jackson
Time to get some more plus dog money and back Charles ‘Boston Strong’ Rosa. Damon Jackson relies on his grappling to win fights – 14 of his 18 pro wins have come via submission. Grappling just so happens to be Rosa’s strong suit as well. But Rosa has better striking stats and is more active in landing strikes, so if the grappling is a push, Rosa should win the striking battle.
Lupita Godinez (-245 – not on PB) vs Silvana Gomez Juarez
Silvana Gomez Juarez will be making her UFC debut on Saturday after being put into this fight earlier this week. So the odds are stacked against her. The much younger ‘Loopy’ is the pick.
Steve Garcia (-325) vs Charlie Ontiveros
In the curtain jerker, I’m going with big favorite Steve Garcia. If you want to get better odds, take him via knockout as all seven of Charlie Ontiveros’s pro losses have come via (T)KO, while ‘Mean Machine’ Garcia has knocked out eight of his 11 pro victims.
Overall Record: 527-415
Return on Investment: -(7.2)%
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