We saw a few of the betting stats and trends hold true in NFL Week 3. Particularly, a few totals which I will highlight below. In addition, there are a few referees who are off to a strong trend against the spread. I will highlight those referees and give a few leans. Let me dive right into the NFL Week 4 Referee Betting Stats and Trends report! Again keep in mind to use this as a handicapping tool and not solely base your picks
Ron Torbert continues his hot streak for Under bettors. Over the last 17 regular season games, Torbert is now 13-4 to the Under with an average total of points scored of 38.5. In fact, this season Torbert officiated games are a perfect 3-0 to the Under with an average combined score of 35 points per game. In Week 4, Torbert and his crew are assigned to the Buffalo Bills hosting the Houston Texans game.
Contrary to Torbert, Brad Rogers is off to a scorching start to the Over. Rogers in Week 3 was assigned to the Monday Night Football game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys. The total flew over the total of 51.5 points. In fact, dating back to last season Brad Rogers is now 13-1 to the Over in last 14 regular season games! This is a 93% trend. A small sample size for sure. However, since I started keep track of these NFL betting referee trends and stats, this trend is by far the most profitable! Brad Rogers is assigned to the New York Giants and New Orleans Saints showdown in the home opener for the Saints.
Shawn Hochuli continues his trend of favoring road teams. Dating back to last season, road teams were 9-3-1 against the spread in games officiated by Shawn Hochuli. This season Hochuli continues the trend for road teams. In fact, road teams are a perfect 3-0 against the spread. As a result, over the last 16 regular season games, road teams are 12-3-1 against the spread.
This is a trend I am definitely keeping my eye on. I am also curious to know if Hochuli is being assigned to the most bet on public game of the week. Last week, Hochuli was assigned to the AFC West divisional game between the Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs which resulted in a 30-24 victory for the road team. Lastly, Hochuli is assigned to officiate the between the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams.
Thus far Scott Novak has called the most amount penalties this season. As I look back to last season, Novak is another referee where road teams did well against the spread. In fact, last season road teams were 9-4-1 against the spread. This season road teams are off to a 2-1 start against the spread. Scott Novak will be assigned to the matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Green Bay Packers.
2021 NFL Referee Records
NFL Week 4 Referee Assignments