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Lightning – Canadiens: Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Predictions

Lightning - Canadiens: Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Predictions

The Stanley Cup Final shifts to Montreal tonight for Game 3.

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The Canadiens will look to avoid falling into a 3-0 series deficit as they host the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Lightning beat the Canadiens 5-1 in Game 1. Montreal bounced back with a strong performance in Game 2, but it wasn’t enough. Tampa Bay took Game 2 by a final score of 3-1 to take a 2-0 lead in the series.

We’re heading to Montreal for a very important Game 3. Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy will go to battle again tonight.

Odds are provided by DraftKings.

Stanley Cup Final, Game 3: Lightning vs. Canadiens

The Canadiens are home underdogs at +117 to the Lightning’s -136 as favorites. The total is set at five goals.

Tampa Bay won Game 1 5-1, but they didn’t have a huge advantage in Expected Goals. Adjusted for score and venue, the Lightning only had a 1.84-1.55 edge. That’s much closer than 5-1.

Things turned around a bit in Game 2. Montreal outshot Tampa Bay 43-23 and had a 2.1-1.35 advantage in Expected Goals. However, the Lightning got a few bounces and capitalized three times to take a 2-0 series lead.

The Canadiens seemed to figure out the Lightning a bit in the second period of Game 2. They had a 23-8 shot attempt advantage at 5-on-5 play in the second period, and a 21-15 advantage in the third. That momentum could carry over heading home.

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SCF Game 3: Lightning at Canadiens Best Bets

Parlay: Canadiens +2.5 & Under 6.5 Goals (-175) or +1.5 & Under 5.5 (+112)

We’re going back to the old reliable parlay here. The +2.5/U6.5 parlay hit in Game 2, but we just missed out on the +1.5/U5.5 parlay. I’m going right back to both of these plays and am more comfortable taking the +1.5/U5.5 this time around.

The Lightning took 2-0 series leads against Florida and Carolina. They lost Game 3 both times. They won Games 2 and 3 against the Islanders after losing Game 1, they then lost Game 4 in New York.

On the other hand, the Canadiens have been resilient in the NHL playoffs and that showed in Game 2. It didn’t result in a win, but it gave them some hope as they head back home. They’ll be able to dictate matchups — which is huge — and feed off the home crowd.

The Lightning will also be trying to play a more defensive game after allowing so many shots in Game 2. This one should be a low-scoring, tight-checking affair.

I like the Canadiens to take Game 3 as well, but Tampa Bay seems to get funny bounces so I’m more comfortable taking the +1.5/U5.5 parlay at +112. It’s nearly the same as the money line (+117) and we get coverage on 2-1 and 3-2 losses.

The +2.5/U6.5 has some juice at -175, so I’m leaning towards laying more on the +1.5/U5.5 parlay, or betting on a few of these other options.

Game To Go To Overtime +305

The Lightning have three overtime losses — one in each series thus far. Two of those three overtime losses were in Game 3.

The Canadiens have gone to overtime a total of six times in 19 games. That includes three times (Games 3, 4, 6) last series against the Golden Knights.

These two teams will play a close game on Friday night and overtime could very well be in the cards. I think +305 is a favorable line.

#DegensOnly Call Your Shot: Montreal Canadiens to win 3-2 +1100

Four of Montreal’s six overtime wins were 3-2 games. They had three 3-2 wins against Vegas, one against Winnipeg, and one against Toronto. This team plays low-scoring games and we should get another one here.

Player Prop: Cole Caufield to score +220

Cole Caufield had goals in Games 1, 3, 5, and 6 of last series against Vegas. He had two shots on goal in each of the first two games in this series. Montreal should look to open up the ice some for him to get on the board at home. I don’t hate the +1200 to score first or +1200 to score last, either.

The odds are always changing. Be sure to check both DraftKings and Pointsbet for the best prices when you place your bet.


Follow along with me throughout the Stanley Cup Final on Twitter (@RGilbertSOP) or in the Sports Gambling Podcast Slack chat.

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