In the first matchup of NFL Week 16, the Minnesota Vikings (+7) face the New Orleans Saints (O/U 50.5). This NFL DFS Showdown Picks Worksheet helps you select successful lineup(s) on DraftKings. Each section is explained in detail on the sheet, but I will provide a high level overview here as well.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks
Similar Roster Construction
I went through every game for each team over the time period corresponding to when they fielded a “similar” offensive lineups from a fantasy perspective. This is slightly subjective. However, it also helps ensure that a large enough sample size has been taken into account.
Highest Scoring Position
This section highlights how often each position has been the highest DKPt scoring position for each team during the duration of their similar roster construction. Also, when that position scored highest, I’ve included the other positions that were included in both the Top 4 and Top 2 for that team in that specific game. The goal of this section on the worksheet is to highlight which positions to target in the CPT position, and which positions to include in the team’s stack. In my opinion, the best way to approach Showdown slates is to create 4-2 stacked lineups.
Percent of Games as Top X Scorer
This section helps identify how often each specific player or position finished as the top 1 through 6 scorer on their team in any given game over the duration of their similar roster construction. It also compares to this year’s results to highlight any players/positions who are specifically performing better this season. The goal of this section is to identify players to include in your Top 4 or Top 2 stacks when building your lineups. For example if a team’s RB2 is only finishing as a Top 4 scorer 10% of the time and the team’s WR3 is doing it at a 30% rate, then it probably makes more sense to fill-in a receiver in the fourth spot.
DraftKings Scoring Correlation
This section shows how each player does relative to one another in DraftKings scoring. If the number is closer to 1, that means both players generally perform similarly (bad or good). If the number is closer to -1, that means both players usually do not perform similarly. This should help solidify some of your choices when completing your stacks and may be critical when determining mid-range players to include with some of the studs that you started your lineup with.
The worksheet does not account for Kickers and Defense (which are both an important and highly volatile part of Showdown), because I do not currently have reliable historical data for these positions.
DraftKings Showdown Worksheet Example Lineups (4-2 stack for both teams)