My UFC predictions last week were so-so. However, I did hit on a big underdog in Jonathan Pearce (+240), so it ended up profitable. And that’s all that really matters, right?
Let’s make this another profitable week. Here are my UFC predictions for UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs Vettori aka UFC Vegas 16.
UFC Predictions Vegas 16
Jack Hermansson (+100) vs Marvin Vettori
When I picked Jack ‘The Joker’ Hermansson earlier this week on my podcast (the MMA Gambling Podcast, on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network, which you should totally listen to), he was a slight favorite at -115. Now I’m getting him at plus money – sweet. Vettori, who is taking this fight on short notice, is fantastic at stuffing takedowns, but I’m counting on Hermansson getting him down and getting the W. If he doesn’t get him down and does some work, we could be in trouble.
Jamahal Hill (-170) vs Ovince Saint Preux
OSP seems to constantly be underrated by the gamblers, and tends to prove them wrong. Yet, I’m going against him this week. Hill is undefeated, eight years his junior, and has outstruck his UFC opponents at a crazy 8:3 ratio. Sounds good to me.
Taila Santos (-210) vs Montana De La Rosa
The lone women’s fight of the night will be this flyweight dandy. I’m going chalk in it – De La Rosa will be taking this fight on short notice (short notice fighters are only winning a third of their fights in 2020) and Santos has 10 knockouts on her resume and good grappling stats.
Roman Dolidze (-200) vs John Allan
This will be Allan’s first fight since the summer of 2019 due to a drug suspension. No way I’m going with him after all that inactivity and the fact he’s now fighting off of the sauce (you’d hope). It also helps that Dolidze has the superior striking stats (70% predictor of a fight’s winner) and has finished all seven of his pro fights.
Movsar Evloev (-700) vs Nate Landwehr
Evloev is a perfect 13-0 (3-0 in the UFC), is six years younger than Landwehr, and has the grappling stats in his favor. But I’m not going anywhere near a number as high as -700 in this fight.
Gabriel Benitez (-225) vs Justin Jaynes
‘Moggly’ has dropped his last two, but I see him ending that skid on Saturday against JJ. He’s got the size, experience, and grappling advantage over Jaynes, who lost his last time in the cage.
Jose Alberto Quinonez (+110) vs Louis Smolka
This fight was set to go a few weeks ago before Smolka had a bad weight cut and had to pull out last minute. Here’s what I wrote then, and I stand by it:
Quinonez has the striking and grappling stats in his favor heading into this battle against the inconsistent Smolka, who has already been cut by the UFC once before. I’ll take the plus money here, thank you very much.
Jordan Leavitt (-400) vs Matt Wiman
That’s a huge number for a debuting fighter, so I’ll pass on betting on it, but Leavitt is my pick to win this fight. He’s 12 years younger than ‘Handsome’ Matt, is bigger, and an undefeated 7-0. But is he more handsome?!
Jimmy Flick (-165) vs Cody Durden
I’m going with another UFC newcomer in this fight as well in Jimmy Flick. A submission master (13 subs in 15 wins), he’s on a three-fight win streak, all ending via – you guessed it – submission.
Ilia Topuria (-255) vs Damon Jackson
Yet another undefeated fighter on this card that I’m riding with. 9-0 as a pro, superior striking and grappling stats, and nine years Jackson’s junior all should add up to a win.
Jake Collier (+160) vs Gian Villante
Two former light heavyweights who got tired of cutting weight, and their physiques have paid the price for it. I’ll go with the younger, bigger fighter for the plus money.
UFC Picks Overall Results
Return on Investment: -(1.9)%
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