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Mayakoba Classic Picks and Props

Mayakoba Classic Picks and Props

For those who missed it, check out the 2020 Mayakoba Classic Preview and Betting Strategies for the types of golfers you should look to target for your picks. With that in mind, here are my favorite Mayakoba Classic picks for this week (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag).

Mayakoba Classic Picks:
Outright Winners

Harris English – 16/1

It would be a shame if Harris English ended 2020 without a win. He’s certainly has produced results capable of getting the long elusive win. Over his last 50 rounds English has gained 0.94 strokes tee-to-green while demonstrating great accuracy and putting. These three features are key to win at Mayakoba. English is in a great spot to close out 2020 with a bang.

Russell Henley – 25/1

Like English, failing to win in 2020 after the season Henley had would be disappointing. Statistically, Henley is one of the best ball strikers in the event and has the accuracy skill set that generally yields winner of the tournament. Henley occasionally has trouble putting and will need a performance like the CJ Cup a few weeks ago to get the job done. But gamblers know he has it in him, and he to can end 2020 on a high note with a win.

The last time the winner of the Mayakoba Classic had odds under 40/1 to win the tournament was 2015. Long shot winners are prevalent here because the golf course demands accuracy and yields a lot of birdies. This shrinks the game between the top players and lower tier players on the PGA Tour. As such, this is a great week to take a stab at some longshot winners.

Here are a few other longshots to target:

Brian Harman – 60/1

Harman fits the mold of an accurate player who can pour in birdies with great putting. Harman has also hit his irons well lately. Harman has gained a little over half a stroke per round with his irons over his last four tournaments. Harman was a surprise disappointment at the RSM Classic, but should fare better at a golf course that fits his strengths.

Joel Dahmen – 66/1

Dahmen finished 6th at the Mayakoba Classic last year and possesses blue collar traits to do better in 2020. Dahmen is a solid, accurate ball striker who runs streaky with his putter. He’s fits the mold of a grizzled veteran who knows his way around a golf course. That’s similar to recent Mayakoba winners like Pat Perez, Charley Hoffman, Matt Kuchar and Graeme McDowell. He’s in great shape to win for the first time on the PGA Tour.

Peter Malnati – 125/1

Given Malnati’s recent form, his 125/1 price this week is curious. Malnati had great showings at the Sanderson, Shriners and Bermuda Championship. He also got off to a fast start at the RSM Classic before fading on the weekend. Malnati is riding a hot putter and striking his irons well since the new season began. He’s in a great spot to win yet again on the PGA Tour.

Henrik Norlander – 150/1

Norlander was a player I liked heading into the RSM Classic, but a COVID diagnosis knocked him out of the event. For all the reasons I liked him at Sea Island I continue that adoration at the Mayakoba Classic. Norlander is a deadly accurate player off the tee who also hits his irons great. He can run hot with the putter, and if that shows up at El Camaleon he could become a first time winner.

Others to Consider

  • Austin Cook – 80/1
  • Denny McCarthy – 80/1
  • Sepp Straka – 100/1
  • Charley Hoffman – 125/1
  • Rory Sabbatini – 125/1
  • Brian Stuard – 160/1
  • Wesley Bryan – 175/1

Positional Props

Viktor Hovland Top 10 – +250

While Hovland’s lone win came on a paspalum golf course, he needs to show more upside with the putter before he’s a consistent winner on the PGA Tour. Until then, he’s basically Hideki Matsuyama – a wonderful ball striker tee-to-green who never can seem to get over the hump. Until then, Hovland is a great fit on golf courses that demand accurate ball striking. He should close out the year with a Top 10.

Will Zalatoris Top 10 – +350

Like Hovland, Zalatoris needs to show more upside with his putter if he wants to become a winner on the PGA Tour. But he’s already one of the best ball strikers on the PGA Tour early in his career. Zalatoris has done nothing but deliver solid finishes since he arrived on the PGA Tour. Another one is on tap this weekend.

Marc Leishman Top 20 – +250

Has Leishman figured things out? After months of dreadful performances Leishman righted the ship with a T13 finish at the Masters. Leishman showed tremendous improving ball-striking at Augusta with high fairway and greens in regulation rates. Leishman’s issue for months was his coach was stuck in Australia due to COVID restrictions that prevented him from fixing his swing flaws. I need to see more evidence he’s truly back. For now, however, +250 for a Top 20 of Leishman’s caliber is worth a stab.

Other Top 20 Props To Consider

  • Emiliano Grillo – +225
  • Kevin Streelman – +250
  • Scott Piercy – +275
  • Doug Ghim – +450
  • Brice Garnett – +500
  • Harry Higgs – +500
  • All the longshots listed above – Various Prices

Mayakoba Classic Picks:
Matchups

Alex Noren -110 over Gary Woodland

This is more a fade against Gary Woodland than it is an endorsement for Alex Noren. Woodland’s game lost and has shown no signs of improvement of the last few months. Good course history won’t be enough to overcome his struggles. While Noren isn’t a great ball striker in his own right, his form currently is much better than Woodland’s. He should beat him head to head.

Harris English -120 over Daniel Berger

The praise for English is above. As for Berger, the bubble may have burst on him. Over his last four tournaments he has lost 0.02 strokes per round tee-to-green. His struggles largely are off the tee, especially with his accuracy. Berger is a player on the decline while English is peaking. English should beat Berger head to head.

Golf analyst for SportsGamblingPodcast.com. Co-Host of the Golf Gambling Podcast on the Sports Gambling Podcast Network. Hit him up on the SGP Slack Channel at SportsGamblingPodcast.com/Slack

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