Well we’ve bounced back extremely well with the flowchart recently as we have now had back-to-back weeks where the optimal lineup topped 170 DKPts. In last week’s low scoring slate, the optimal lineups were easily within the Top 1% of GPP contests and if you decided to play some of the smaller field contests you definitely got a nice sweat in watching your lineup bubble up towards the top.
The Week 11 slate is a really fun one even though we are missing some of the most explosive offenses on the main slate. Buffalo is on a bye week and Seattle, Arizona, and Kansas City all have island primetime games this weekend. With a lot of the Stud QBs not included in the main slate, we can expect to see some spread out ownership across the board, which opens up a lot of opportunity for us GPP players. This week’s flowchart looks different than what you are used to seeing, so bear with me as I explain the steps for crafting your lineups below. Let’s get straight into the analysis, it’s going to be a long article, but hopefully you will get some valuable nuggets from it.
NFL DFS Flowchart Week 11 – DraftKings GPP
“Skinny” QB Stack
The New Orleans Saints are rolling with Taysom Hill at quarterback this week and his $4800 price tag really unlocks a lot for us on this slate. Given Hill’s rushing upside, I don’t feel extremely comfortable loading him up in a true game stack, so I have opted to pair him with the Saints TE Jared Cook. Tight end is a position that has been really volatile all season (multiple Milly Maker winners with zeroes at the TE position), so whenever possible I want to try and correlate this spot. This slate does not have any of the star-studded receiving threats outside of Mark Andrews, so I am fine going Cook here and hoping he is on the receiving end of a Hill TD pass.
Let’s talk a little bit more about Taysom Hill. At first thought, he seems like a play that is really tough to stomach at QB. However, like I said above we don’t have a lot of the typical dual threat quarterbacks on this slate who truly possess that 35 DKPt upside. I like Hill for multiple reasons. The first and most obvious reason, is his price allows us to have access to A TON of the high priced options this week. Just take a look at the last two columns of the flowchart and you will start believing in it.
Second, his dual-threat rushing upside makes me love him as a starter for all the same reasons that I hate him when Sean Payton decides to trot him out on a 3rd down or goal line play for the Saints during a normal week. He can make plays on the ground and really does have the potential to get the 100 yard rushing bonus. In last week’s game, he was on the field for only 37% of the Saints snaps and accumulated 43 rushing yards. Finally, I think people who decide to play Hill this week or going to try and force him into game stacks with Michael Thomas and/or Alvin Kamara, so I think we can be contrarian by not playing these guys and instead hoping that Hill does a lot of the work himself. If he plays the full game at this $4800 price tag I really just don’t see a lot of ways that his value doesn’t come in strong.
Secondary Game Stacks
Since we aren’t doing our typical 3+1 QB team stack with a bring back option, I think it’s still extremely important to have secondary game stack options to help further increase the correlation in our lineups. This also provides an option for those of you who don’t feel comfortable playing Taysom Hill to just plug in one of the QBs that aligns with these secondary game stacks.
Starting on the top half, I really like the game environment in the Chargers and Jets matchup. Compared to the rest of the slate, these teams have the 4th highest combined seconds/play pace in a neutral game script and average the 7th most plays per game. This doesn’t seem extremely noteworthy, but this is currently the 11th lowest Total of the week and I expect the Over to hit pretty early. Keenan Allen has been a machine this season and is a very safe floor play while Mike Williams provides some great boom potential as the go-up-and-get-it receiver for Justin Herbert and the Chargers. On the bring-back, Jamison Crowder was basically a no show the last time we saw the Jets take the field, but has been a target monster in most of the games that he has played this season. Look for him to bounce back against the LAC defense.
On the bottom half of the flowchart, I really love this Minnesota and Dallas matchup. Andy Dalton is back for the Cowboys so we can expect to see their offense pick up the pace a little bit closer to what it was with Dak Prescott vs. what it’s been with Ben DiNucci and Garrett Gilbert. All of the Cowboys receivers are underpriced this week, but I’m going with CeeDee Lamb at $5000. On the Minnesota side, Dalvin Cook is expected to be the chalkiest running back option, so playing both Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson provides some good leverage off the field. We have already seen this leverage play work twice this season, so I don’t view this as an extremely risky play.
Low Owned Leverage
Typically, we are picking two players from this column, but because of the contruction this week, you only have to select one of these low-owned RBs. Damien Harris provides leverage off of Jakobi Meyers who is projecting to see 20% ownership, and with Sony Michel being activated off IR today, I think Harris will go largely un-owned. I expect Harris to still see the workhorse role in this matchup against the Houston porous run defense. Ezekiel Elliott at $6500 is unheard of and is purely a bet on talent over recent results. We know his 30 DKPt upside, so let’s take a shot at him getting there when he is low-priced.
Mike Davis was the chalkiest play of the season last week, and largely fizzled out. This week, he faces a Detroit team that has been horrible against running backs this season. On top of that, the Panthers are either going to be starting a hobbled Teddy Bridgewater or a former XFL player in PJ Walker at QB against the Lions. Davis should see a ton of dump offs in either scenario. James Robinson gets a tough matchup against the Steelers in Week 11, however there is nobody else in the NFL who has as strong of a stranglehold on his backfield like Robinson does. Chris Thompson is now on IR, so I don’t think it’s egregious thinking that Robinson will see 100% of the RB snaps this week. Always bet on the opportunity. Jonathan Taylor finishes off the leverage column, and is a very volatile option against the Packers. On one hand, he has a great matchup against a poor run defense, but on the other hand he has looked like the Colts third best RB at times this season. I like the price point for Taylor this week, and hope he can run hot during the first couple of series and not cede snaps to Hines and/or Wilkins.
Stud RBs & Chalk
Because we spent down at the beginning of the flowchart, we are now able to really load up on the studs. Outside of Dalvin Cook, who I am fading this week due to his high ownership and the leverage options I included in the second column, the flowchart now includes the four of the five highest priced running backs in Week 11. I would only sprinkle Alvin Kamara in a couple of lineups, just to cover yourself in case he gets a couple passing touchdowns from Hill, but feel free to load up on Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, and Nick Chubb as much as you want. Most routes of the flowchart should allow you to take 2 of these players.
That does it for my flowchart analysis this week. As always, feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you want to talk lineup strategy on Sunday morning. I will also post any updates I have to the NFL DFS flowchart as the rest of the injury news hits closer to kickoff. Good luck this weekend, let’s go finish in the green!
Past NFL DFS Flowchart Results
Week 1 – Optimal Lineup 157 DKPts, min cash in GPPs (top 20%)
Week 2 – Optimal Lineup 175.4 DKPts, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 3 – Optimal Lineup 122.3 DKPts, no cash
Week 4 – Optimal Lineup 171.3 DKPts, 2X cash in GPPs (top 7-10%)
Week 5 – Optimal Lineup 178.92, 3X cash in GPPs (top 3-4%)
Week 6 – Optimal Lineup 180.2, 2X-3X cash in GPPs (top 5-6%) (ALL LINEUP COMBOS CASHED)
Week 7 – Optimal Lineup 153.34, no cash
Week 8 – Optimal Lineup 140.12, no cash
Week 9 – Optimal Lineup 174.26, 3X-4X cash in GPPs (top 4-5%)
Week 10 – Optimal Lineup 178.92, 10X-15X cash in GPPs (TOP 1%)
