For those who missed it, please check out the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Preview and Betting Strategies for the types of golfers you should look to target for your bets. With that in mind, here’s the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open picks I like this week at TPC Summerlin (with odds courtesy of MyBookie.ag).
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Picks:
Collin Morikawa – 18/1
Morikawa has disappointed after winning the PGA Championship, but a few weeks off might help him turn things around. Morikawa has slumped lately with his irons, which typically are the best part of his game. His putting has improved since the restart, as evident by several winning upside performances with it over the last few months. He has a massive ceiling should both these areas click.
Scottie Scheffler – 28/1
A slow start for Scheffler submarined his chances of winning his first event back since returning from COVID. His performance overall was a mixed bag, with strong performances in Rounds 1 and 3 ruined by poor ones in Rounds 2 and 4. Before last week, Scheffler was one of the hottest players in golf with massive ball-striking performances and winning upside potential with his putting. If all the rust has shook off him, he could nab his first win on the PGA Tour.
Zach Johnson – 50/1
Zach Johnson is enjoying a bit of a career resurgence. Over his last 16 rounds he’s gained 0.74 strokes per round with his irons and gained 0.87 strokes per round on the greens. That’s helped give him a pair of Top 10’s in his last four starts. Vintage Zach Johnson is more than capable of reaching -20 to win a golf tournament, and if both these key scoring clubs are working for him he can grab another long awaited victory.
Doc Redman – 80/1
Doc Redman is knocking on the door for a breakthrough win. Over his last four starts he’s gained 1.5 strokes per round on the field on the strength of his irons and putting. Those are two key areas of success anytime a tournament sees low scoring like what’s anticipated at TPC Summerlin. And 80/1 bet on his upside is good value.
Russell Henley – 80/1
Like Redman, Henley’s upside is too good to pass up at 80/1. Over his last 4 tournaments he’s gained just under 1.5 strokes per round on the field, and has been fantastic with his ball striking. Some of his early performances were hampered by poor putting, but over the last month this has improved for him. He has all the tools to be a winner again on the PGA Tour.
Matt Kuchar – 100/1
Kuchar has struggled since the restart, but TPC Summerlin may be a good golf course fit for him. Kuchar still is a decent ball striker with his irons and can get hot with the flat stick from time to time. He also isn’t that far removed from the form he displayed last year where he won twice and finished runner up at several tournaments. Last week, Sergio was able to breakout for an unexpected win. Why can’t Kuchar?
Brendan Steele – 110/1
Like many of the picks above, Brendan Steele shows strengths in the scoring golf clubs in his bag. Over his last four tournaments, Steele has gained 0.86 strokes per round combined with his irons and his putter, one of the best rates in the field. These two key areas are vital for anyone who wants to card a low tournament score, and Steele is in prime position to do just that.
Other Positional Props
Webb Simpson Top 10 – +150
Webb’s sub-10/1 price is a little steep, but overall he’s the best “scorer” in the field. Webb’s combination of strokes gained with his irons and putting is better than anyone in the field over everyone’s last 50 rounds. He’s continued this trend in the short-term, where he’s gained 1.16 strokes per round combined in these areas over his last four tournaments. Those who are hesitant to bet him outright at less than 10/1 have a very reasonable option to take him Top 10 at +175.
Harris English Top 20 – +175
Harris English consistently looks great for the golf stat nerds thanks to his remarkable consistency and all-around great play. English doesn’t display many weaknesses in his game. But despite the great statistics, he appears to have a ceiling on his results because he just can’t reach the highs as well as other competitors have. Nevertheless, his fantastic form all-around should give him a safe Top 20 floor.
Other Top 20’s To Consider:
- Paul Casey – +175
- Jason Kokrak – +200
- Cameron Davis – +275
- Charley Hoffman – +300
- Sam Burns – +300
- Sebastian Munoz – +300
- Brian Harman – +335
- Denny McCarthy – +350
- Cameron Smith – +350
- Harold Varner III – +350
- Henrik Norlander – +400
- Kristoffer Ventura – +400
- Pat Perez – +450
- Scott Stallings – +450
- Joel Dahmen – +500
- Tyler Duncan – +550
- Charl Schwartzel – +550
- Talor Gooch – +550
- Cameron Tringale – +600
- Patton Kizzire – +1100
Shriners Hospitals for Children Open Picks:
Doc Redman -110 over Si Woo Kim
The praise for Doc Redman is above. As for Si Woo Kim, the bubble may have burst for him. After a torrent stretch of golf, Kim has crashed back down to earth, specifically with his irons and his putting. Anyone who struggles in these two areas will struggle to climb up the leaderboard at the Shriners. Redman should best him head to head. Alternatively, he also can be had at +1.5 strokes over Kim at -140.
Harold Varner III -135 over Aaron Wise
While Aaron Wise shows great potential, he has a much lower floor than Varner thanks to poor putting and inconsistent ball striking. Wise also gained 3 strokes putting last week at the Sanderson, and may be due for regression in an area he typically struggles in. Varner, who possesses a relatively safe floor, should beat Wise head to head.
Matthew Wolff -125 over Jason Day
Matthew Wolff is a very popular pick this week, and for good reason. In the minds of the public, he’s the next breakout star thanks to fantastic performances at the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open. He could be due for a let down given all expectations on him, but he should do enough to beat Jason Day head to head. Jason Day needs an all-world putting week to compensate for very poor ball striking. While TPC Summerlin isn’t a demanding ball striking golf course, Day won’t put himself in enough positions to get birdies to pass Matthew Wolff on the leaderboard.